Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚫馃嚜 Allsvenskan

league draws 23% · chaos 95volatile

Elfsborg (6th) v Kalmar (13th)

1 55%
X 24%
2 21%
Prediction: Elfsborg to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Elfsborg clear favourites at 55%, with Kalmar at 21% and the draw at 24%. Elfsborg have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 3 conceded). Kalmar have lost 4 of their last five (2 scored, 9 conceded). Watch Simon Hedlund 馃嚫馃嚜 and Sebastian Holmen for Elfsborg.

Elfsborg: Boras stalwart, 2006/2012 champions, regular UEL group runs (beat AZ etc in 2024). · Kalmar: 2008 champions, promoted back for 2026 after one season down.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Elfsborg (6th)

Boras stalwart, 2006/2012 champions, regular UEL group runs (beat AZ etc in 2024). Boras Arena artificial turf. 2025: mid-table drift. 2026: experienced core, pushing back toward top-4; strong home side, travel poorly.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 51.5 in league · 7th of 16
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 7th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 6th (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
  • WH2-0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • DA1-1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • WH3-0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • WA1-0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 1,3,2,2,3
Key players Momoh Ibrahim Kamara 馃嚫馃嚤 52.3, Julius Magnusson 馃嚫馃嚜 43.6, Julius Beck 馃嚛馃嚢 42.7, Rasmus Wikstr枚m 馃嚫馃嚜 41.3, Ari Sigurp谩lsson 馃嚠馃嚫 39.8

Kalmar (13th)

2008 champions, promoted back for 2026 after one season down. Guldfageln Arena, artificial turf. Compact defensive identity; historically resilient on return seasons. 2026: mid-table target; avoid the playoff spot and it's a pass.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 42.8 in league · 11th of 16
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 15th | 2026 so far: 13th (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • LA0-1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • DA0-0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • LH0-4 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • LA2-3 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 5,4,0,1,1
Key players Charles Sagoe Jr. 53.8, Aboubacar Keita 馃嚭馃嚫 52.1, Carl Gustafsson 馃嚫馃嚜 49.3, Achraf Dari 馃嚥馃嚘 42.6, Samuel Brolin 馃嚫馃嚜 38.8
league draws 23% · chaos 95volatile

Hammarby (3rd) v Brommapojkarna (10th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: HAMMARBY
1 66%
X 22%
2 12%
Prediction: Hammarby to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 63%
Match preview

The model makes Hammarby clear favourites at 66%, with Brommapojkarna at 12% and the draw at 22%. Hammarby have won 3 of their last five (12 scored, 4 conceded). Brommapojkarna have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 8 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Hammarby the stronger. Watch Nahir Besara 馃嚫馃嚜 and Jusef Erabi 馃嚫馃嚜 for Hammarby.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Hammarby (3rd)

strong at home

Stockholm. Best-supported atmosphere in Sweden (3Arena, green wall). Back-to-back runners-up incl 2025; Europa League qualifiers; lost 25/26 Svenska Cupen final to Mjallby. 2026: young cohesive squad under Kalle Karlsson; prime title challenger.

Style Territorial control from 2026
Squad quality 82.8 in league · 1st of 16
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • LA2-3 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • WH2-0 GaisAllsvenskan
  • WA4-0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • LH0-1 Rak贸w Cz臋stochowaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 3,4,2,5,2
Key players Victor Lind 馃嚛馃嚢 69.0, Paulos Abraham 馃嚫馃嚜 58.4, Frank Adjei 馃嚞馃嚟 56.3, Ibrahima Breze Fofana 馃嚞馃嚦 54.3, Montader Madjed 馃嚫馃嚜 52.1

Brommapojkarna (10th)

Stockholm. Famed academy factory (Sweden's biggest youth setup), tiny Grimsta IP (5k, artificial turf). 2025: safe mid-table, won a wild 6-4 vs Norrkoping. 2026: sells best youngsters every window; lower half, but tricky at home. Volatile scorelines.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 40.1 in league · 13th of 16
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 10th (27 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • LA0-4 GaisAllsvenskan
  • WH2-0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • WH3-1 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • DA2-2 SiriusAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 4,4,2,4,3
Key players Mads Hansen 馃嚛馃嚢 53.7, Oliver Zand茅n 馃嚫馃嚜 45.7, Oskar Cotton 馃嚫馃嚜 40.5, Kaare Barslund 馃嚛馃嚢 37.4, Oliver Berg 馃嚦馃嚧 37.3
league draws 23% · chaos 95volatile

Malmo FF (7th) v Orgryte (15th)

1 62%
X 23%
2 15%
Prediction: Malmo FF to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 60%
vs performances: Malmo FF -0.49 (6g)
Match preview

The model makes Malmo FF clear favourites at 62%, with Orgryte at 15% and the draw at 23%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. Watch Isaac Kiese Thelin 馃嚫馃嚜 and Hugo Bolin 馃嚫馃嚜 for Malmo FF.

Malmo FF: Sweden's dominant club (most titles, biggest budget, ~29m EUR squad) but ceded 2025 crown badly.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Malmo FF (7th)

Sweden's dominant club (most titles, biggest budget, ~29m EUR squad) but ceded 2025 crown badly. 2026: new coach Miguel Angel Ramirez; analytical title favourite. Eleda Stadion, natural grass. European group-stage regulars; expect a response season.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 55.1 in league · 5th of 16
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (30 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • WA1-0 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • LH0-3 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • WA1-0 GaisAllsvenskan
  • LH1-2 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 3,1,3,1,0
Key players Sead Hak拧abanovi膰 馃嚥馃嚜 51.1, Andrej 膼uri膰 馃嚪馃嚫 48.5, Busanello 馃嚙馃嚪 46.2, Otto Rosengren 馃嚫馃嚜 44.6, Pontus Jansson 馃嚫馃嚜 43.7
Nationalities 馃嚫馃嚜 31 路 馃嚛馃嚢 4 路 馃嚦馃嚧 3 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
2127th07-04 v Degerfors IF: +3.407-12 v IFK Goteborg: +5.007-20 v Kalmar FF: +0.007-26 v IF Elfsborg: -2.008-02 v IF Brommapojkarna: +2.008-09 v Degerfors IF: -2.008-16 v Gais: +2.008-24 v Djurgardens IF: -4.008-31 v Sirius: +2.009-07 v AIK Stockholm: +0.4

Orgryte (15th)

Gothenburg. Sweden's oldest club and early-1900s serial champions, promoted back to Allsvenskan for 2026 after a long absence. Gamla Ullevi tenant. Romantic story, thin top-flight squad; relegation candidate, but derby games lift them.

Style Under siege from 2026
Squad quality 40.5 in league · 12th of 16
Seasons 2026 so far: 15th (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • LA0-1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • DH1-1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • LA1-3 IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskan
  • LH3-4 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 7,4,2,1,2
Key players Noah Christoffersson 馃嚫馃嚜 46.6, Christoffer Styffe 馃嚫馃嚜 46.1, Benjamin Laturnus 馃嚚馃嚘 44.1, Johan Hammar 馃嚫馃嚜 43.6, Owen Parker Price 41.8

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.