Daily Football Model

Today's Conviction · the daily prediction game · 2026-10-02

← Today's predictions Conviction Lab → Draw Lab → Conviction+Transfers → Live record →

Three combos a day, straight from the model: its strongest calls, with the deeper tiers borrowing draws from draw-risk games, and near-ties going to clubs with a trending player (flavour only — the probabilities do the work). The ×points value is simply the inverse of the combined probability — the model scoring its own difficulty; every combo is frozen before kickoff and graded on 90-minute results. The history keeps score honestly — including how often the maths said we SHOULD have been right.

Steady (~10x)

5 picks · combined chance 12.7% · scores ×8 points if every pick is right

🇳🇴 21:00 Ranheim v Egersund — Both score: Yes (70%)
22:45 France v Italy — France (72%)
22:45 Poland v Romania — Poland (65%)
18:00 Kazakhstan v Moldova — Kazakhstan (63%) ✗
22:45 Ukraine v Northern Ireland — Ukraine (62%)

Bold (~50x)

6 picks · combined chance 2.9% · scores ×35 points if every pick is right

22:45 Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden — Draw (28%)
23:00 St. Lucia v Guadeloupe — Both score: Yes (63%)
22:45 France v Italy — France (72%)
22:45 Poland v Romania — Poland (65%)
🇳🇱 23:00 Helmond Sport v Heracles — Heracles (60%)
22:45 Hungary v Georgia — Hungary (59%)

Moonshot

8 picks · combined chance 0.4% · scores ×240 points if every pick is right

20:00 Cyprus v Armenia — Draw (27%)
20:00 Latvia v Montenegro — Draw (26%)
🇮🇪 22:45 Dundalk v Bohemians — Both score: Yes (62%)
🇪🇸 22:30 Eldense v Oviedo — Both score: No (61%)
22:45 France v Italy — France (72%)
22:45 Poland v Romania — Poland (65%)
22:45 Belgium v Türkiye — Belgium (58%)
22:45 Faroe Islands v Slovakia — Slovakia (58%)

Lottery (10000x+)

14 picks · combined chance 0.0% · scores ×5925 points if every pick is right

22:45 France v Italy — France (72%)
22:45 Poland v Romania — Poland (65%)
18:00 Kazakhstan v Moldova — Kazakhstan (63%) ✗
22:45 Ukraine v Northern Ireland — Ukraine (62%)
🇳🇱 23:00 Helmond Sport v Heracles — Heracles (60%)
22:45 Hungary v Georgia — Hungary (59%)
22:45 Belgium v Türkiye — Belgium (58%)
22:45 Faroe Islands v Slovakia — Slovakia (58%)
🇮🇪 22:45 Dundalk v Bohemians — Bohemians (50%)
20:00 Latvia v Montenegro — Montenegro (49%)
20:00 Cyprus v Armenia — Cyprus (44%)
🇪🇸 22:30 Eldense v Oviedo — Oviedo (43%)
🇳🇴 21:00 Ranheim v Egersund — Ranheim (42%)
23:00 St. Lucia v Guadeloupe — St. Lucia (41%)

Steady (~10x) · history

56 graded · 12 fully correct · expected by the maths: 6.58 · points earned: 111

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-10-01	6	1/6	×8	—	missed
2026-09-29	11	7/11	×9	—	missed
2026-09-25	8	5/8	×8	—	missed
2026-09-22	4	3/4	×14	—	missed
2026-09-21	3	1/3	×11	—	missed
2026-09-20	8	7/8	×8	—	missed
2026-09-19	7	4/7	×9	—	missed
2026-09-18	6	1/6	×9	—	missed
2026-09-17	6	6/6	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-09-16	7	7/7	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-09-15	7	3/7	×11	—	missed
2026-09-14	7	6/7	×8	—	missed
2026-09-13	8	7/8	×10	—	missed
2026-09-12	7	4/7	×7	—	missed
2026-09-11	7	4/7	×9	—	missed
2026-09-10	7	3/7	×9	—	missed
2026-09-09	8	8/8	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-09-08	6	3/6	×9	—	missed
2026-09-07	6	1/6	×9	—	missed
2026-09-06	7	6/7	×9	—	missed
2026-09-05	8	7/8	×9	—	missed
2026-09-04	7	5/7	×10	—	missed
2026-09-03	5	4/5	×11	—	missed
2026-09-02	6	6/6	×11	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-09-01	5	4/5	×7	—	missed
2026-08-31	6	5/6	×8	—	missed
2026-08-30	8	5/8	×8	—	missed
2026-08-29	7	5/6	×8	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-28	6	6/6	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-27	8	8/8	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-26	6	2/5	×10	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-25	5	4/5	×9	—	missed
2026-08-24	5	5/5	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-23	8	7/8	×10	—	missed
2026-08-22	8	6/7	×7	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-21	7	7/7	×10	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-20	7	4/6	×7	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-19	5	3/5	×10	—	missed
2026-08-18	3	0/3	×8	—	missed
2026-08-17	5	5/5	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-16	7	5/7	×9	—	missed
2026-08-15	7	7/7	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-14	7	5/7	×10	—	missed
2026-08-13	6	4/6	×8	—	missed
2026-08-12	5	3/5	×14	—	missed
2026-08-11	5	5/5	×13	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-10	5	3/5	×8	—	missed
2026-08-09	8	5/8	×8	—	missed
2026-08-08	7	4/6	×8	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-07	6	5/6	×9	—	missed
2026-08-06	7	7/7	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-05	5	3/5	×10	—	missed
2026-08-04	5	1/5	×7	—	missed
2026-08-03	5	3/4	×8	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-02	7	6/7	×8	—	missed
2026-08-01	6	3/6	×12	—	missed

Bold (~50x) · history

54 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 1.46 · points earned: 0

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-26	8	5/8	×55	—	missed
2026-09-25	8	5/8	×54	—	missed
2026-09-24	7	4/7	×35	—	missed
2026-09-22	5	2/5	×66	—	missed
2026-09-20	9	7/9	×38	—	missed
2026-09-19	8	3/8	×35	—	missed
2026-09-18	7	5/7	×37	—	missed
2026-09-17	7	4/7	×40	—	missed
2026-09-16	8	5/8	×47	—	missed
2026-09-15	7	5/7	×34	—	missed
2026-09-14	8	7/8	×46	—	missed
2026-09-13	9	6/9	×41	—	missed
2026-09-12	9	8/9	×37	—	missed
2026-09-11	8	3/8	×46	—	missed
2026-09-10	7	3/7	×50	—	missed
2026-09-09	8	7/8	×40	—	missed
2026-09-08	7	5/7	×39	—	missed
2026-09-07	7	1/7	×46	—	missed
2026-09-06	8	3/8	×36	—	missed
2026-09-05	9	4/9	×42	—	missed
2026-09-04	8	4/8	×50	—	missed
2026-09-03	6	4/6	×53	—	missed
2026-09-02	6	2/6	×33	—	missed
2026-09-01	6	3/6	×34	—	missed
2026-08-31	7	6/7	×33	—	missed
2026-08-30	9	5/9	×41	—	missed
2026-08-29	8	3/6	×31	—	missed · 2 void
2026-08-28	7	6/7	×32	—	missed
2026-08-27	8	6/8	×36	—	missed
2026-08-26	7	6/7	×41	—	missed
2026-08-25	6	4/6	×35	—	missed
2026-08-24	7	5/7	×54	—	missed
2026-08-23	8	6/8	×33	—	missed
2026-08-22	9	7/9	×32	—	missed
2026-08-21	8	6/8	×49	—	missed
2026-08-20	8	5/8	×36	—	missed
2026-08-19	6	3/6	×37	—	missed
2026-08-18	5	1/5	×45	—	missed
2026-08-17	6	4/6	×32	—	missed
2026-08-16	8	5/8	×38	—	missed
2026-08-15	9	7/9	×46	—	missed
2026-08-14	7	5/6	×32	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-13	7	4/7	×36	—	missed
2026-08-11	6	3/6	×44	—	missed
2026-08-10	6	3/6	×32	—	missed
2026-08-09	9	5/9	×42	—	missed
2026-08-08	8	5/8	×37	—	missed
2026-08-07	7	6/7	×47	—	missed
2026-08-06	8	7/8	×47	—	missed
2026-08-05	6	3/6	×32	—	missed
2026-08-04	6	4/6	×45	—	missed
2026-08-03	6	2/5	×44	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-02	8	5/8	×43	—	missed
2026-08-01	7	3/7	×52	—	missed

Moonshot · history

54 graded · 1 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.20 · points earned: 206

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-29	9	4/9	×245	—	missed
2026-09-27	7	3/7	×257	—	missed
2026-09-26	9	5/9	×464	—	missed
2026-09-24	12	9/12	×177	—	missed
2026-09-22	5	3/5	×105	—	missed
2026-09-20	10	7/10	×326	—	missed
2026-09-19	10	5/10	×412	—	missed
2026-09-18	9	5/9	×454	—	missed
2026-09-17	8	4/8	×426	—	missed
2026-09-16	9	4/8	×432	—	missed · 1 void
2026-09-15	9	5/9	×465	—	missed
2026-09-14	9	6/9	×494	—	missed
2026-09-13	10	6/10	×332	—	missed
2026-09-12	10	7/10	×307	—	missed
2026-09-11	9	4/9	×445	—	missed
2026-09-10	8	4/8	×276	—	missed
2026-09-09	9	6/9	×513	—	missed
2026-09-08	8	3/8	×325	—	missed
2026-09-07	9	2/9	×492	—	missed
2026-09-06	9	6/9	×295	—	missed
2026-09-05	10	4/10	×323	—	missed
2026-09-04	9	5/9	×391	—	missed
2026-09-03	7	4/7	×174	—	missed
2026-09-02	8	4/8	×511	—	missed
2026-09-01	8	4/8	×508	—	missed
2026-08-31	9	6/9	×465	—	missed
2026-08-30	10	8/10	×399	—	missed
2026-08-29	10	7/9	×302	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-28	9	5/9	×443	—	missed
2026-08-27	9	6/9	×410	—	missed
2026-08-26	8	4/8	×221	—	missed
2026-08-25	6	3/6	×291	—	missed
2026-08-24	8	3/8	×358	—	missed
2026-08-23	9	4/8	×331	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-22	11	6/11	×428	—	missed
2026-08-21	9	4/9	×430	—	missed
2026-08-20	9	5/9	×333	—	missed
2026-08-19	7	4/7	×177	—	missed
2026-08-18	6	2/6	×107	—	missed
2026-08-17	8	8/8	×206	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-16	9	3/9	×354	—	missed
2026-08-15	10	6/10	×409	—	missed
2026-08-14	9	7/9	×462	—	missed
2026-08-13	8	7/8	×394	—	missed
2026-08-11	7	2/7	×170	—	missed
2026-08-10	8	2/8	×211	—	missed
2026-08-09	9	2/9	×299	—	missed
2026-08-08	9	6/9	×386	—	missed
2026-08-07	8	6/8	×227	—	missed
2026-08-06	8	3/8	×323	—	missed
2026-08-04	9	3/9	×171	—	missed
2026-08-03	8	4/7	×124	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-02	8	4/8	×289	—	missed
2026-08-01	8	3/8	×404	—	missed

Lottery (10000x+) · history

36 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.00 · points earned: 0

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-26	12	7/12	×10126	—	missed
2026-09-20	15	8/15	×14280	—	missed
2026-09-19	13	6/13	×10909	—	missed
2026-09-18	12	6/12	×10051	—	missed
2026-09-17	11	6/11	×12268	—	missed
2026-09-16	12	7/12	×15781	—	missed
2026-09-15	11	5/11	×13309	—	missed
2026-09-14	12	9/12	×10241	—	missed
2026-09-13	14	8/14	×10556	—	missed
2026-09-12	14	8/14	×12051	—	missed
2026-09-11	12	4/12	×10940	—	missed
2026-09-09	12	7/12	×15988	—	missed
2026-09-08	10	3/8	×10143	—	missed · 2 void
2026-09-07	12	2/12	×10741	—	missed
2026-09-06	14	5/14	×14717	—	missed
2026-09-05	15	10/15	×14461	—	missed
2026-09-04	13	9/13	×14980	—	missed
2026-09-03	9	3/9	×2755	—	missed
2026-09-02	11	7/11	×12180	—	missed
2026-09-01	11	5/11	×10944	—	missed
2026-08-31	12	8/12	×12701	—	missed
2026-08-30	14	6/14	×12499	—	missed
2026-08-29	15	6/14	×13063	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-28	13	8/13	×15379	—	missed
2026-08-27	13	6/13	×15826	—	missed
2026-08-26	11	6/11	×12079	—	missed
2026-08-25	10	6/10	×14129	—	missed
2026-08-24	12	7/12	×18756	—	missed
2026-08-23	14	8/14	×15522	—	missed
2026-08-22	15	9/14	×14056	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-21	12	5/12	×10934	—	missed
2026-08-20	13	8/13	×13252	—	missed
2026-08-19	13	6/13	×3169	—	missed
2026-08-17	11	4/11	×19170	—	missed
2026-08-16	13	7/13	×12385	—	missed
2026-08-15	14	9/13	×13936	—	missed · 1 void