Daily Football Model

Today's Conviction · the daily prediction game · 2026-09-12

← Today's predictions Conviction Lab → Draw Lab → Conviction+Transfers → Live record →

Three combos a day, straight from the model: its strongest calls, with the deeper tiers borrowing draws from draw-risk games, and near-ties going to clubs with a trending player (flavour only — the probabilities do the work). The ×points value is simply the inverse of the combined probability — the model scoring its own difficulty; every combo is frozen before kickoff and graded on 90-minute results. The history keeps score honestly — including how often the maths said we SHOULD have been right.

Steady (~10x)

7 picks · combined chance 13.8% · scores ×7 points if every pick is right

🇳🇱 23:00 Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen — Both score: Yes (74%)
🇪🇪 15:30 FC Levadia Tallinn v Vaprus — FC Levadia Tallinn (80%)
🇧🇬 20:00 CSKA 1948 v Dunav Ruse — CSKA 1948 (76%)
🇪🇪 15:30 Kalju Nomme v Trans Narva — Kalju Nomme (75%)
🇸🇦 22:00 Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Nassr — Al-Nassr (74%)
🇪🇪 18:00 Nõmme United v Flora Tallinn — Flora Tallinn (74%)
🇬🇷 20:00 Olympiakos Piraeus v OFI — Olympiakos Piraeus (73%)

Bold (~50x)

9 picks · combined chance 2.7% · scores ×37 points if every pick is right

🇮🇹 17:00 Vicenza Virtus v Juve Stabia — Draw (33%)
🇪🇸 23:00 Cordoba v Almeria — Both score: Yes (72%)
🇪🇪 15:30 FC Levadia Tallinn v Vaprus — FC Levadia Tallinn (80%)
🇧🇬 20:00 CSKA 1948 v Dunav Ruse — CSKA 1948 (76%)
🇳🇱 18:30 Twente v ADO Den Haag — Twente (73%)
🇪🇸 23:00 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid (70%)
🇩🇪 17:30 Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 — Borussia Dortmund (72%)
🇵🇹 21:00 Casa Pia v FC Porto — FC Porto (71%)
🇸🇦 19:50 Al Taawon v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%)

Moonshot

10 picks · combined chance 0.3% · scores ×307 points if every pick is right

🇮🇹 17:00 Padova v Ascoli — Draw (33%)
🇮🇹 17:00 Sudtirol v Modena — Draw (33%)
🇨🇴 05:30 Santa Fe v Deportes Tolima — Draw (31%)
🇩🇪 17:30 1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Both score: Yes (72%)
🇫🇷 19:15 Strasbourg v Monaco — Both score: Yes (69%)
🇪🇪 15:30 FC Levadia Tallinn v Vaprus — FC Levadia Tallinn (80%)
🇧🇬 20:00 CSKA 1948 v Dunav Ruse — CSKA 1948 (76%)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan — Sheffield Wednesday (69%)
🇧🇪 22:45 Union St. Gilloise v Lommel United — Union St. Gilloise (68%)
🇰🇿 17:00 Yelimay v Zhetysu — Yelimay (67%)

Lottery (10000x+)

14 picks · combined chance 0.0% · scores ×12051 points if every pick is right

🇨🇴 01:05 Internacional de Bogota v Llaneros — Draw (31%)
🇪🇸 18:15 Cadiz v Las Palmas — Draw (31%)
🇫🇷 16:00 Guingamp v Annecy — Draw (29%)
🇺🇾 03:00 Cerro Largo v Central Espanol — Draw (29%)
🇧🇷 04:00 Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense — Draw (28%)
🇨🇭 21:00 FC Lugano v BSC Young Boys — Both score: Yes (66%)
🇦🇷 21:45 Estudiantes L.P. v Platense — Both score: No (66%)
🇩🇪 22:30 FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg — Both score: Yes (65%)
🇪🇪 15:30 FC Levadia Tallinn v Vaprus — FC Levadia Tallinn (80%)
🇧🇬 20:00 CSKA 1948 v Dunav Ruse — CSKA 1948 (76%)
🇪🇪 15:30 Kalju Nomme v Trans Narva — Kalju Nomme (75%)
🇸🇰 20:00 AS Trencin v Dunajska Streda — Dunajska Streda (66%)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 23:00 Sunderland v Arsenal — Arsenal (66%)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Crystal Palace v Ipswich — Crystal Palace (65%)

Steady (~10x) · history

41 graded · 10 fully correct · expected by the maths: 4.90 · points earned: 94

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-10	7	3/7	×9	—	missed
2026-09-09	8	8/8	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-09-08	6	3/6	×9	—	missed
2026-09-07	6	1/6	×9	—	missed
2026-09-06	7	6/7	×9	—	missed
2026-09-05	8	7/8	×9	—	missed
2026-09-04	7	5/7	×10	—	missed
2026-09-03	5	4/5	×11	—	missed
2026-09-02	6	6/6	×11	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-09-01	5	4/5	×7	—	missed
2026-08-31	6	5/6	×8	—	missed
2026-08-30	8	5/8	×8	—	missed
2026-08-29	7	5/6	×8	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-28	6	6/6	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-27	8	8/8	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-26	6	2/5	×10	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-25	5	4/5	×9	—	missed
2026-08-24	5	5/5	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-23	8	7/8	×10	—	missed
2026-08-22	8	6/7	×7	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-21	7	7/7	×10	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-20	7	4/6	×7	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-19	5	3/5	×10	—	missed
2026-08-18	3	0/3	×8	—	missed
2026-08-17	5	5/5	×9	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-16	7	5/7	×9	—	missed
2026-08-15	7	7/7	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-14	7	5/7	×10	—	missed
2026-08-13	6	4/6	×8	—	missed
2026-08-12	5	3/5	×14	—	missed
2026-08-11	5	5/5	×13	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-10	5	3/5	×8	—	missed
2026-08-09	8	5/8	×8	—	missed
2026-08-08	7	4/6	×8	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-07	6	5/6	×9	—	missed
2026-08-06	7	7/7	×8	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-05	5	3/5	×10	—	missed
2026-08-04	5	1/5	×7	—	missed
2026-08-03	5	3/4	×8	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-02	7	6/7	×8	—	missed
2026-08-01	6	3/6	×12	—	missed

Bold (~50x) · history

40 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 1.12 · points earned: 0

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-10	7	3/7	×50	—	missed
2026-09-09	8	7/8	×40	—	missed
2026-09-08	7	5/7	×39	—	missed
2026-09-07	7	1/7	×46	—	missed
2026-09-06	8	3/8	×36	—	missed
2026-09-05	9	4/9	×42	—	missed
2026-09-04	8	4/8	×50	—	missed
2026-09-03	6	4/6	×53	—	missed
2026-09-02	6	2/6	×33	—	missed
2026-09-01	6	3/6	×34	—	missed
2026-08-31	7	6/7	×33	—	missed
2026-08-30	9	5/9	×41	—	missed
2026-08-29	8	3/6	×31	—	missed · 2 void
2026-08-28	7	6/7	×32	—	missed
2026-08-27	8	6/8	×36	—	missed
2026-08-26	7	6/7	×41	—	missed
2026-08-25	6	4/6	×35	—	missed
2026-08-24	7	5/7	×54	—	missed
2026-08-23	8	6/8	×33	—	missed
2026-08-22	9	7/9	×32	—	missed
2026-08-21	8	6/8	×49	—	missed
2026-08-20	8	5/8	×36	—	missed
2026-08-19	6	3/6	×37	—	missed
2026-08-18	5	1/5	×45	—	missed
2026-08-17	6	4/6	×32	—	missed
2026-08-16	8	5/8	×38	—	missed
2026-08-15	9	7/9	×46	—	missed
2026-08-14	7	5/6	×32	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-13	7	4/7	×36	—	missed
2026-08-11	6	3/6	×44	—	missed
2026-08-10	6	3/6	×32	—	missed
2026-08-09	9	5/9	×42	—	missed
2026-08-08	8	5/8	×37	—	missed
2026-08-07	7	6/7	×47	—	missed
2026-08-06	8	7/8	×47	—	missed
2026-08-05	6	3/6	×32	—	missed
2026-08-04	6	4/6	×45	—	missed
2026-08-03	6	2/5	×44	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-02	8	5/8	×43	—	missed
2026-08-01	7	3/7	×52	—	missed

Moonshot · history

39 graded · 1 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.14 · points earned: 206

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-10	8	4/8	×276	—	missed
2026-09-09	9	6/9	×513	—	missed
2026-09-08	8	3/8	×325	—	missed
2026-09-07	9	2/9	×492	—	missed
2026-09-06	9	6/9	×295	—	missed
2026-09-05	10	4/10	×323	—	missed
2026-09-04	9	5/9	×391	—	missed
2026-09-03	7	4/7	×174	—	missed
2026-09-02	8	4/8	×511	—	missed
2026-09-01	8	4/8	×508	—	missed
2026-08-31	9	6/9	×465	—	missed
2026-08-30	10	8/10	×399	—	missed
2026-08-29	10	7/9	×302	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-28	9	5/9	×443	—	missed
2026-08-27	9	6/9	×410	—	missed
2026-08-26	8	4/8	×221	—	missed
2026-08-25	6	3/6	×291	—	missed
2026-08-24	8	3/8	×358	—	missed
2026-08-23	9	4/8	×331	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-22	11	6/11	×428	—	missed
2026-08-21	9	4/9	×430	—	missed
2026-08-20	9	5/9	×333	—	missed
2026-08-19	7	4/7	×177	—	missed
2026-08-18	6	2/6	×107	—	missed
2026-08-17	8	8/8	×206	—	ALL CORRECT
2026-08-16	9	3/9	×354	—	missed
2026-08-15	10	6/10	×409	—	missed
2026-08-14	9	7/9	×462	—	missed
2026-08-13	8	7/8	×394	—	missed
2026-08-11	7	2/7	×170	—	missed
2026-08-10	8	2/8	×211	—	missed
2026-08-09	9	2/9	×299	—	missed
2026-08-08	9	6/9	×386	—	missed
2026-08-07	8	6/8	×227	—	missed
2026-08-06	8	3/8	×323	—	missed
2026-08-04	9	3/9	×171	—	missed
2026-08-03	8	4/7	×124	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-02	8	4/8	×289	—	missed
2026-08-01	8	3/8	×404	—	missed

Lottery (10000x+) · history

24 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.00 · points earned: 0

day	picks	right	value	market	result
2026-09-09	12	7/12	×15988	—	missed
2026-09-07	12	2/12	×10741	—	missed
2026-09-06	14	5/14	×14717	—	missed
2026-09-05	15	10/15	×14461	—	missed
2026-09-04	13	9/13	×14980	—	missed
2026-09-03	9	3/9	×2755	—	missed
2026-09-02	11	7/11	×12180	—	missed
2026-09-01	11	5/11	×10944	—	missed
2026-08-31	12	8/12	×12701	—	missed
2026-08-30	14	6/14	×12499	—	missed
2026-08-29	15	6/14	×13063	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-28	13	8/13	×15379	—	missed
2026-08-27	13	6/13	×15826	—	missed
2026-08-26	11	6/11	×12079	—	missed
2026-08-25	10	6/10	×14129	—	missed
2026-08-24	12	7/12	×18756	—	missed
2026-08-23	14	8/14	×15522	—	missed
2026-08-22	15	9/14	×14056	—	missed · 1 void
2026-08-21	12	5/12	×10934	—	missed
2026-08-20	13	8/13	×13252	—	missed
2026-08-19	13	6/13	×3169	—	missed
2026-08-17	11	4/11	×19170	—	missed
2026-08-16	13	7/13	×12385	—	missed
2026-08-15	14	9/13	×13936	—	missed · 1 void