Daily Football Model

Track record · 140036 walk-forward predictions across 62 leagues · nothing hidden, including the draws we always miss

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Every figure below is a walk-forward backtest: each prediction used only matches played before that game. "Recall" = share of that outcome the model called; "precision" = share of such calls that were right. The model never predicts draws: no model can (a draw is almost never any model's single most likely outcome — roughly once per 4,000 games), so the draw column shows the share of games that ended drawn — all counted as misses against us.
LeagueGamesSeasonsAccuracy Home wins
recall / precision		Draw share
(never predicted) 		Away wins
recall / precision
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Meistriliiga15372018–202662.3%80.6% / 61.8%18.9%72.7% / 63.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Virslฤซga12792019–202660.0%79.6% / 62.3%21.0%71.6% / 57.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช UAE Pro League14422018–202656.0%77.2% / 58.2%23.2%67.6% / 53.2%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ SuperLiga Srbije24802018–202655.8%86.0% / 55.6%23.3%52.3% / 56.1%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Champions League19182018–202655.7%80.3% / 58.3%23.3%61.4% / 51.3%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Eredivisie25082018–202654.6%79.9% / 57.1%23.4%59.0% / 50.4%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar Stars League10592018–202554.6%69.4% / 55.1%20.6%68.0% / 54.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Primeira Liga25212018–202654.5%83.0% / 54.2%24.5%57.8% / 55.3%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europa League25552018–202654.3%86.3% / 55.3%24.1%48.3% / 51.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Chance Liga17742020–202654.2%82.6% / 55.1%24.6%56.4% / 52.4%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท HNL14792018–202654.2%78.1% / 57.1%25.2%64.1% / 49.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น A Lyga13622018–202654.1%74.3% / 55.3%24.3%68.1% / 52.6%
๐ŸŒ AFC Cup6792019–202554.1%82.7% / 54.2%22.1%49.3% / 53.6%
๐Ÿ† EFL Cup7222019–202654.0%71.3% / 54.9%23.0%69.0% / 53.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Serie A30912018–202653.4%79.1% / 53.2%26.4%64.3% / 53.7%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier League30902018–202653.3%80.9% / 54.1%23.2%54.1% / 51.9%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Nike Liga12222020–202653.3%84.2% / 53.9%24.6%51.7% / 52.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Super League Greece19532018–202653.3%84.0% / 53.8%26.5%56.6% / 52.1%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Parva Liga16682020–202653.2%80.8% / 55.2%25.1%56.1% / 49.3%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scottish Premiership18502018–202653.1%76.8% / 57.1%23.8%59.7% / 47.2%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Chinese Super League20472018–202653.0%83.7% / 53.4%24.5%49.7% / 51.8%
๐ŸŒŽ Copa Libertadores9232021–202652.9%89.5% / 55.8%28.2%40.5% / 42.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Pro League21812018–202652.8%78.8% / 53.7%22.9%54.8% / 51.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Besta deild12952018–202652.0%73.7% / 56.0%23.9%60.2% / 46.0%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ La Liga31092018–202651.9%83.1% / 54.0%27.0%51.7% / 47.1%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian Premier League20082018–202651.5%81.8% / 53.8%26.0%52.0% / 46.9%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Eliteserien20952018–202651.5%84.6% / 52.9%23.7%40.3% / 47.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Bundesliga24982018–202651.4%81.6% / 51.8%24.7%49.9% / 50.3%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgian Pro League25052018–202651.1%80.9% / 51.8%24.2%49.3% / 49.8%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Conference League14932023–202651.0%81.2% / 52.9%27.1%51.9% / 46.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan PL16002018–202650.9%82.2% / 52.4%24.8%46.0% / 47.4%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 127692018–202650.8%82.5% / 50.9%25.4%48.4% / 50.4%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Veikkausliiga14902018–202650.7%76.7% / 51.2%24.1%54.4% / 49.9%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Sรผper Lig28352018–202650.5%80.7% / 52.4%25.9%48.7% / 46.1%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด OBOS-ligaen21232018–202650.4%83.7% / 50.8%22.9%38.8% / 49.1%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Eerste Divisie30422018–202650.3%82.6% / 51.2%22.5%40.7% / 48.1%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Allsvenskan21102018–202650.3%75.5% / 52.4%24.0%53.9% / 46.8%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ NB I16312018–202650.1%84.4% / 50.7%25.1%42.1% / 48.5%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brasileirรฃo33172018–202649.7%90.7% / 51.0%27.5%26.1% / 42.5%
๐ŸŒ AFC Champions League10822018–202549.4%89.9% / 49.8%23.8%24.9% / 47.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austrian Bundesliga16032018–202649.0%74.9% / 49.6%26.0%56.3% / 48.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland PD10632021–202649.0%75.8% / 52.5%27.8%56.6% / 43.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Superliga16952018–202649.0%80.2% / 50.5%26.3%47.5% / 45.7%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท TFF 1. Lig27512018–202648.9%82.1% / 49.9%24.9%40.8% / 46.3%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด SuperLiga25232018–202648.1%78.6% / 50.6%27.7%48.6% / 43.0%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ League One43872018–202648.1%81.4% / 48.6%25.6%41.2% / 46.8%
๐ŸŒŽ Copa Sudamericana7802022–202647.9%80.7% / 50.1%29.7%48.6% / 43.1%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Primera A35852018–202647.2%91.9% / 48.4%30.1%20.4% / 38.4%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Swiss Super League16512018–202646.9%72.8% / 49.4%26.3%50.7% / 42.5%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia First League28232018–202646.3%81.7% / 47.4%28.2%40.1% / 43.5%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Championship45452018–202645.4%79.9% / 47.0%26.5%36.3% / 41.2%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Superettan21412018–202645.4%87.6% / 46.5%26.9%25.3% / 40.8%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Ekstraklasa18482020–202645.1%82.7% / 46.7%27.3%31.4% / 39.9%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Segunda Divisiรณn38172018–202645.0%93.0% / 45.4%29.8%15.3% / 41.5%
๐Ÿ† FA Cup63682018–202644.6%95.8% / 44.7%21.0%6.6% / 43.6%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 228672018–202644.6%81.9% / 45.3%28.9%35.8% / 42.5%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ League Two44272018–202644.3%81.1% / 45.9%27.3%32.3% / 39.3%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Primera Divisiรณn13062019–202644.0%74.0% / 46.1%28.6%45.7% / 40.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 2. Bundesliga25152018–202643.9%90.8% / 44.6%26.4%14.8% / 39.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Liga Profesional34672018–202643.8%83.8% / 45.4%30.2%29.5% / 38.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Serie B31122018–202643.6%89.2% / 44.3%31.4%22.9% / 41.7%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Liga Portugal 224202018–202642.9%91.1% / 43.5%27.1%15.3% / 38.3%
All leagues14003649.7%83.1% / 50.4%25.6%43.3% / 47.8%
Context for the accuracy column: guessing randomly scores 33%, always saying "home win" scores ~44–47%, and simply picking the pre-game favourite lands ~46–57% depending on the league. Chaotic leagues (Serie B, Ligue 2) cap everyone lower; lopsided ones (Holland, Portugal) lift everyone. Judge each row against its own league's ceiling, not against 100.