Daily Football Model

Track record · 138674 walk-forward predictions across 62 leagues · nothing hidden, including the draws we always miss

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Every figure below is a walk-forward backtest: each prediction used only matches played before that game. "Recall" = share of that outcome the model called; "precision" = share of such calls that were right. The model never predicts draws: no model can (a draw is almost never any model's single most likely outcome — roughly once per 4,000 games), so the draw column shows the share of games that ended drawn — all counted as misses against us.
LeagueGamesSeasonsAccuracy Home wins
recall / precision		Draw share
(never predicted) 		Away wins
recall / precision
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Meistriliiga15202018–202662.2%80.4% / 61.7%18.9%72.7% / 62.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Virslฤซga12652019–202660.3%79.6% / 62.6%20.6%71.4% / 57.3%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ SuperLiga Srbije24632018–202655.8%86.0% / 55.7%23.1%52.2% / 56.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช UAE Pro League14072018–202555.7%76.9% / 58.2%23.4%67.5% / 52.5%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Champions League19002018–202655.5%80.2% / 58.1%23.4%61.4% / 51.3%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Eredivisie24862018–202654.7%79.9% / 57.2%23.3%59.0% / 50.4%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Primeira Liga25002018–202654.6%83.0% / 54.3%24.4%57.9% / 55.4%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar Stars League10592018–202554.6%69.4% / 55.1%20.6%68.0% / 54.0%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europa League25372018–202654.3%86.5% / 55.2%24.2%48.1% / 51.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น A Lyga13512018–202654.3%74.5% / 55.5%24.3%68.3% / 52.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Chance Liga17562020–202654.1%82.4% / 55.1%24.6%56.5% / 52.2%
๐ŸŒ AFC Cup6792019–202554.1%82.7% / 54.2%22.1%49.3% / 53.6%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท HNL14402018–202553.9%77.7% / 56.4%25.3%64.3% / 50.0%
๐Ÿ† EFL Cup7062019–202653.7%71.2% / 54.5%23.4%68.9% / 52.9%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier League30702018–202653.4%80.9% / 54.2%23.1%54.2% / 51.8%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scottish Premiership18392018–202653.3%77.0% / 57.3%23.8%60.1% / 47.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Serie A30412018–202553.3%79.0% / 53.1%26.5%64.4% / 53.6%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Parva Liga16532020–202653.2%80.7% / 55.3%25.0%55.9% / 49.2%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Nike Liga12102020–202653.2%84.4% / 53.8%24.6%51.3% / 51.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Super League Greece19182018–202553.1%83.9% / 53.6%26.5%56.2% / 52.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Chinese Super League20442018–202652.9%83.7% / 53.4%24.5%49.7% / 51.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Pro League21632018–202652.8%78.8% / 53.7%22.8%54.7% / 51.1%
๐ŸŒŽ Copa Libertadores9152021–202652.8%89.4% / 55.8%28.1%39.9% / 42.1%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ La Liga30792018–202651.9%83.1% / 54.2%27.0%51.8% / 46.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Besta deild12832018–202651.9%73.5% / 55.7%24.0%60.3% / 46.2%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian Premier League19912018–202651.5%81.7% / 53.8%25.9%51.7% / 46.9%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Eliteserien20792018–202651.4%84.6% / 52.8%23.8%40.2% / 47.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Bundesliga24622018–202551.3%81.8% / 51.7%24.8%49.9% / 50.6%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Conference League14932023–202651.2%81.6% / 53.0%27.1%51.7% / 46.9%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgian Pro League24872018–202651.1%80.9% / 51.7%24.2%49.3% / 49.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan PL15832018–202650.9%82.2% / 52.4%24.9%46.2% / 47.3%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 127242018–202550.7%82.4% / 50.9%25.3%48.3% / 50.3%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Veikkausliiga14722018–202650.7%76.7% / 51.1%24.0%54.0% / 50.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Sรผper Lig28152018–202650.7%81.0% / 52.5%25.9%49.1% / 46.4%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด OBOS-ligaen21072018–202650.4%83.8% / 50.8%22.9%38.7% / 49.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Allsvenskan20902018–202650.2%75.5% / 52.5%24.1%53.9% / 46.6%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Eerste Divisie30102018–202650.1%82.5% / 50.8%22.7%40.6% / 48.2%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ NB I16252018–202650.0%84.3% / 50.6%25.1%41.9% / 48.4%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brasileirรฃo32952018–202649.6%90.7% / 50.9%27.5%26.0% / 42.4%
๐ŸŒ AFC Champions League10822018–202549.4%89.9% / 49.8%23.8%24.9% / 47.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austrian Bundesliga15912018–202649.2%75.1% / 49.5%26.0%56.3% / 48.6%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท TFF 1. Lig27292018–202649.1%82.1% / 50.1%24.7%41.2% / 46.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Superliga16822018–202649.0%80.2% / 50.5%26.2%47.6% / 46.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland PD10482021–202648.9%75.7% / 52.4%27.9%56.3% / 43.2%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ League One43582018–202648.2%81.4% / 48.7%25.5%41.3% / 46.8%
๐ŸŒŽ Copa Sudamericana7722022–202647.9%80.7% / 49.7%29.7%48.6% / 43.8%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด SuperLiga25062018–202647.9%78.5% / 50.4%27.8%48.5% / 42.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Primera A35482018–202647.1%92.0% / 48.4%30.2%20.0% / 37.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Swiss Super League16362018–202646.8%72.6% / 49.5%26.5%50.8% / 42.1%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia First League28002018–202646.3%81.6% / 47.5%28.1%39.8% / 43.1%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Championship45102018–202645.5%80.0% / 47.0%26.5%36.4% / 41.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Superettan21162018–202645.5%87.7% / 46.6%26.9%25.2% / 40.4%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Ekstraklasa18262020–202645.2%82.6% / 46.7%27.4%31.8% / 40.0%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Segunda Divisiรณn37842018–202645.0%92.9% / 45.4%29.9%15.1% / 40.9%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 228482018–202644.7%82.0% / 45.3%28.9%35.9% / 42.6%
๐Ÿ† FA Cup62422018–202644.6%95.8% / 44.6%21.1%6.8% / 43.9%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ League Two43932018–202644.3%81.2% / 45.9%27.2%32.5% / 39.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 2. Bundesliga24972018–202643.9%90.7% / 44.5%26.4%14.6% / 39.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Primera Divisiรณn12822019–202643.8%74.0% / 46.1%28.6%45.2% / 39.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Liga Profesional34352018–202643.8%83.7% / 45.3%30.2%29.5% / 38.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Serie B30622018–202543.7%89.2% / 44.4%31.5%23.2% / 42.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Liga Portugal 224102018–202642.9%91.1% / 43.6%27.1%15.3% / 38.3%
All leagues13867449.7%83.1% / 50.4%25.6%43.3% / 47.8%
Context for the accuracy column: guessing randomly scores 33%, always saying "home win" scores ~44–47%, and simply picking the pre-game favourite lands ~46–57% depending on the league. Chaotic leagues (Serie B, Ligue 2) cap everyone lower; lopsided ones (Holland, Portugal) lift everyone. Judge each row against its own league's ceiling, not against 100.