Daily Football Model

Track record · 90582 walk-forward predictions across 40 leagues · nothing hidden, including the draws we always miss

← Today's predictions Live record → Analytics →

Every figure below is a walk-forward backtest: each prediction used only matches played before that game. "Recall" = share of that outcome the model called; "precision" = share of such calls that were right. The model never predicts draws: no model can (the bookmakers' favourite is a draw roughly once per 4,000 games), so the draw column shows the share of games that ended drawn — all counted as misses against us.
LeagueGamesSeasonsAccuracy Home wins
recall / precision		Draw share
(never predicted) 		Away wins
recall / precision
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Meistriliiga14902018–202662.1%80.4% / 61.4%19.1%72.8% / 63.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Virslฤซga12392019–202660.1%79.7% / 62.4%20.7%71.1% / 57.2%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Champions League18102018–202554.8%81.5% / 55.7%23.0%56.2% / 52.9%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Primeira Liga24592018–202554.7%82.8% / 54.2%24.4%58.1% / 55.5%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Eredivisie24452018–202554.6%79.9% / 57.5%23.3%58.6% / 49.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น A Lyga13252018–202654.3%74.4% / 55.6%24.4%68.6% / 52.7%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท HNL14402018–202553.9%77.7% / 56.4%25.3%64.3% / 50.0%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier League30402018–202553.5%80.9% / 54.3%23.0%54.2% / 51.9%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scottish Premiership18082018–202553.4%77.0% / 57.4%23.8%60.3% / 47.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Serie A30412018–202553.3%79.0% / 53.1%26.5%64.4% / 53.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Chinese Super League19952018–202653.1%83.8% / 53.6%24.3%49.7% / 52.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Super League Greece19182018–202553.1%83.9% / 53.6%26.5%56.2% / 52.0%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europa League24572018–202553.0%87.5% / 53.6%24.1%41.9% / 50.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Besta deild12422018–202652.6%73.9% / 56.6%23.8%61.3% / 46.6%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ La Liga30402018–202552.0%83.2% / 54.2%27.0%51.9% / 47.1%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russian Premier League19362018–202551.6%81.7% / 54.1%25.7%51.7% / 46.6%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Eliteserien20402018–202651.4%84.8% / 52.7%23.8%40.0% / 47.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Bundesliga24622018–202551.3%81.8% / 51.7%24.8%49.9% / 50.6%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Conference League12872023–202651.0%84.3% / 52.7%26.1%44.5% / 46.4%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Veikkausliiga14422018–202651.0%77.3% / 51.5%24.1%54.1% / 50.1%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgian Pro League24422018–202550.9%80.9% / 51.5%24.3%48.9% / 49.4%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 127242018–202550.7%82.4% / 50.9%25.3%48.3% / 50.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Sรผper Lig27812018–202550.7%81.0% / 52.6%26.0%49.4% / 46.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan PL15452018–202650.6%82.4% / 52.0%25.0%45.5% / 47.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Allsvenskan20462018–202650.3%75.6% / 52.6%24.2%54.3% / 46.7%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Eerste Divisie29602018–202550.1%82.5% / 50.8%22.7%40.8% / 48.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท TFF 1. Lig26712018–202549.4%82.0% / 50.3%24.6%41.8% / 46.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland PD10282021–202649.2%75.9% / 52.8%27.5%56.5% / 43.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austrian Bundesliga15612018–202548.9%74.8% / 49.0%26.1%56.3% / 48.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Superliga16412018–202548.8%80.1% / 50.2%26.2%47.2% / 45.8%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ League One43002018–202548.2%81.4% / 48.9%25.4%41.2% / 46.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Swiss Super League15972018–202546.7%72.3% / 49.6%26.6%51.2% / 41.8%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia First League27152018–202546.0%81.4% / 47.4%28.3%39.4% / 42.5%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Championship44502018–202545.6%80.1% / 47.1%26.4%36.4% / 41.5%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Ekstraklasa17702020–202545.1%82.6% / 46.7%27.5%31.8% / 39.9%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Segunda Divisiรณn37412018–202545.0%93.0% / 45.4%30.0%15.2% / 41.1%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Ligue 228042018–202544.7%81.9% / 45.5%28.7%35.8% / 42.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 2. Bundesliga24612018–202544.0%90.7% / 44.6%26.4%14.8% / 39.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Serie B30622018–202543.7%89.2% / 44.4%31.5%23.2% / 42.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Liga Portugal 223672018–202542.9%91.0% / 43.5%27.2%15.6% / 38.4%
All leagues9058250.1%82.1% / 50.8%25.6%46.3% / 48.3%
Context for the accuracy column: guessing randomly scores 33%, always saying "home win" scores ~44–47%, and the bookmakers' favourite lands ~46–57% depending on the league. Chaotic leagues (Serie B, Ligue 2) cap everyone lower; lopsided ones (Holland, Portugal) lift everyone. Judge each row against its own league's ceiling, not against 100.