Daily Football Model

Steady (~10x)

3 picks · combined chance 13.9% · scores ×7 if every pick is right · from 5 fixtures with window data

• 🇪🇸 20:30 Burgos v Eldense — Both score: No (63%)TSI +5×1.01→+5 v +12×0.87→+10 ✓
• 🇪🇸 20:30 Eibar v Las Palmas — Eibar (50%) +1.1TSI +8×1.13→+9 v +3×1.06→+3 ✓
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Oviedo v Sporting Gijon — Oviedo (45%) -4.7TSI -18 v +6 ✓

Bold (~50x)

5 picks · combined chance 2.1% · scores ×47 if every pick is right · from 5 fixtures with window data

• 🇪🇸 20:30 Burgos v Eldense — Burgos (58%) -1.0TSI +5×1.01→+5 v +12×0.87→+10 ✓
• 🇪🇸 20:30 Eibar v Las Palmas — Eibar (50%) +1.1TSI +8×1.13→+9 v +3×1.06→+3 ✓
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Oviedo v Sporting Gijon — Oviedo (45%) -4.7TSI -18 v +6 ✓
• 🇪🇸 16:00 Valladolid v Cordoba — Valladolid (44%) -0.2TSI +5 v +8×0.78→+6 ✓
• 🇪🇸 18:15 Mallorca v Almeria — Mallorca (39%) -7.9TSI -54×0.92→-49 v -11×0.83→-9 ✗

Decay & uplift · how the window figures are holding up

The boost and nerf run at full strength from matchday one. From 4 games onward they start to taper or grow: this table is points taken per game against what the boosted view itself expected, so a club falling short of its own boost loses it and one beating it gains. Fully weighted by 9 games. 115 clubs still short of the taper threshold, so their boost stands at full size.

Steady (~10x) · history

30 graded · 4 fully correct · expected by the maths: 3.29

Bold (~50x) · history

27 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.64

Moonshot · history

25 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.13

Lottery (10000x+) · history

15 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.00