Daily Football Model

Steady (~10x)

7 picks · combined chance 13.4% · scores ×7 if every pick is right · from 87 fixtures with window data

• 🇳🇱 23:00 Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen — Both score: Yes (74%)TSI +12×0.86→+10 v -9
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid (80%) +10.0TSI +69×0.97→+67 v -40
• 🇸🇦 19:50 Al Taawon v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Al-Hilal Saudi FC (77%) +7.4TSI -39×1.14→-44 v +7×1.15→+8
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 23:00 Sunderland v Arsenal — Arsenal (74%) +8.9TSI -18 v +39
• 🇩🇪 17:30 Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 — Borussia Dortmund (74%) +1.3TSI +30 v +21
• 🇳🇱 18:30 Twente v ADO Den Haag — Twente (73%) +0.8TSI +22 v +16
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Chelsea v Hull City — Chelsea (72%) +8.3TSI +56 v +5

Bold (~50x)

8 picks · combined chance 3.0% · scores ×33 if every pick is right · from 87 fixtures with window data

• 🇮🇹 17:00 Sudtirol v Modena — Draw (33%) -0.1TSI +11 v +1
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Cordoba v Almeria — Both score: Yes (72%)TSI +8×0.88→+7 v -11×1.01→-11
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid (80%) +10.0TSI +69×0.97→+67 v -40
• 🇸🇦 19:50 Al Taawon v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Al-Hilal Saudi FC (77%) +7.4TSI -39×1.14→-44 v +7×1.15→+8
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan — Sheffield Wednesday (70%) +0.8TSI +7×1.10→+8 v +3×0.87→+3
• 🇸🇦 22:00 Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Nassr — Al-Nassr (70%) -4.7TSI +4×0.79→+3 v -33×0.87→-29
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Stockport County v Leicester — Stockport County (68%) +10.0TSI -3 v -75×0.96→-72
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Liverpool v Fulham — Liverpool (61%)TSI -3 v -3

Moonshot

10 picks · combined chance 0.2% · scores ×483 if every pick is right · from 87 fixtures with window data

• 🇮🇹 17:00 Padova v Ascoli — Draw (33%) -0.2TSI +19 v +8
• 🇮🇹 17:00 Vicenza Virtus v Juve Stabia — Draw (33%) -0.5TSI +7 v -19
• 🇪🇸 18:15 Cadiz v Las Palmas — Draw (31%)TSI +8×0.89→+7 v +3×1.06→+3
• 🇩🇪 17:30 1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart — Both score: Yes (72%)TSI -4 v +25
• 🇫🇷 19:15 Strasbourg v Monaco — Both score: Yes (69%)TSI -52 v -28
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid (80%) +10.0TSI +69×0.97→+67 v -40
• 🇸🇦 19:50 Al Taawon v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Al-Hilal Saudi FC (77%) +7.4TSI -39×1.14→-44 v +7×1.15→+8
• 🇩🇪 22:30 FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg — FC St. Pauli (60%) +10.0TSI +2 v -62
• 🇪🇸 20:30 Athletic Club v Elche — Athletic Club (58%) +0.3TSI +4 v +3×0.86→+3
• 🇸🇦 22:00 Al Shabab v Al-Fayha — Al Shabab (58%) +4.1TSI +7×0.88→+6 v -13×1.12→-15

Lottery (10000x+)

13 picks · combined chance 0.0% · scores ×16672 if every pick is right · from 87 fixtures with window data

• 🇩🇪 15:00 Eintracht Braunschweig v Dynamo Dresden — Draw (28%)TSI +15 v +17×0.87→+15
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Port Vale v Exeter City — Draw (27%)TSI -3×1.14→-3 v -3×1.12→-3
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Gillingham v Tranmere — Draw (27%) +0.1TSI +0 v +5×1.06→+5
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Rotherham v Salford City — Draw (27%) -0.2TSI -29×0.99→-29 v +8×0.86→+7
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Colchester v Crewe — Draw (27%) -0.1TSI +2×1.07→+2 v +1×1.13→+1
• 🇩🇪 17:30 FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — Both score: Yes (65%)TSI +6 v -36
• 🇩🇪 17:30 FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Both score: Yes (65%)TSI -1 v +15
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Plymouth v Barnsley — Both score: Yes (63%)TSI -3×1.12→-3 v +5×1.10→+6
• 🇪🇸 23:00 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid (80%) +10.0TSI +69×0.97→+67 v -40
• 🇸🇦 19:50 Al Taawon v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Al-Hilal Saudi FC (77%) +7.4TSI -39×1.14→-44 v +7×1.15→+8
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 23:00 Sunderland v Arsenal — Arsenal (74%) +8.9TSI -18 v +39
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Crystal Palace v Ipswich — Crystal Palace (57%) -7.7TSI -16 v +25
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 18:00 Southampton v Bristol City — Southampton (56%) -0.2TSI +4×1.14→+5 v +5×1.10→+6

Decay & uplift · how the window figures are holding up

The boost and nerf run at full strength from matchday one. From 4 games onward they start to taper or grow: this table is points taken per game against what the boosted view itself expected, so a club falling short of its own boost loses it and one beating it gains. Fully weighted by 9 games. 162 clubs still short of the taper threshold, so their boost stands at full size.

Steady (~10x) · history

18 graded · 3 fully correct · expected by the maths: 1.88

Bold (~50x) · history

17 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.40

Moonshot · history

17 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.09

Lottery (10000x+) · history

9 graded · 0 fully correct · expected by the maths: 0.00