Size is squad market value bridged across divisions
by the league-strength ladder, so a big club in a lower league still
counts. "Bucking the trend" compares points actually taken this season
with what expected goals say the performances deserved. A club appears
here — and earns the [UNPREDICTABLE] badge on its fixture cards
— only on repeated evidence: at least 5 games, a sustained gap
of 0.35 points per game, and at least 3 individual surprise results in
the same direction. The receipts column lists them. Winning = results
keep beating the performances; losing = the reverse. Descriptive only:
the model's probabilities do not use this page.
club
direction
games
expected pts
actual pts
gap /game
surprises
the receipts
1
🇧🇷 PalmeirasBrasileirão
↗ WINNING
25
35.7
52
+0.65
10
04-05 2-1 v Bahia 03-22 1-0 v Sao Paulo 02-13 3-1 v Internacional 04-26 1-0 v RB Bragantino