Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

← all leagues

馃嚫馃嚜 Allsvenskan

league draws 23% · chaos 95volatile

AIK (5th) v Vasteras SK (8th)

1 55%
X 24%
2 21%
Prediction: AIK to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 54%
Match preview

The model makes AIK clear favourites at 55%, with Vasteras SK at 21% and the draw at 24%. AIK have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 9 conceded). Watch Ioannis Pittas 馃嚚馃嚲 and Anton Saletros for AIK.

AIK: Stockholm giant, huge crowds at 50k Nationalarenan (47k derby vs Hammarby). · Vasteras SK: Promoted-for-2026 club (bounced between tiers recently); modest budget, artificial turf.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

AIK (5th)

Stockholm giant, huge crowds at 50k Nationalarenan (47k derby vs Hammarby). Underachieving since 2018 title. 2025: mid-table. 2026: rebuilt squad, top-half but not title pace. Derby volatility is a predictor factor; strong defensively at home.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 52.2 in league · 6th of 16
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 5th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • WH3-2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • WA3-1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • WA4-3 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • LH0-3 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 3,7,4,5,0
Key players Linus Carlstrand 馃嚫馃嚜 56.5, Kristoffer Nordfeldt 馃嚫馃嚜 47.7, Herve Matthys 馃嚙馃嚜 44.6, Stanley Wilson 馃嚢馃嚜 42.3, Ibrahim Ciss茅 馃嚚馃嚠 40.2

Vasteras SK (8th)

Promoted-for-2026 club (bounced between tiers recently); modest budget, artificial turf. Survival mission: results vs fellow strugglers Degerfors/Halmstad/Orgryte will decide it. Expect low xG totals and tight low-scoring matches.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 43.5 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2024: 16th | 2026 so far: 8th (29 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • WA3-1 BK HackenAllsvenskan
  • DH0-0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • LA0-3 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • WH1-0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,3,0,4,1
Key players Taonsa Axel 42.8, Fr茅d茅ric Nsabiyumva 馃嚙馃嚠 42.4, Elis J盲ger 馃嚫馃嚜 42.4, Ismet Lushaku 馃嚱馃嚢 41.6, Bonaventure Lendambi 40.0
league draws 23% · chaos 95volatile

IFK Goteborg (11th) v Halmstad (16th)

1 63%
X 23%
2 15%
Prediction: IFK Goteborg to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
vs performances: IFK Goteborg -0.58 (8g) · Halmstad -0.50 (5g)
Match preview

The model makes IFK Goteborg clear favourites at 63%, with Halmstad at 15% and the draw at 23%. IFK Goteborg have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 7 conceded). Watch Gustaf Norlin 馃嚫馃嚜 and Sebastian Ohlsson 馃嚫馃嚜 for IFK Goteborg, and Joel Allansson 馃嚫馃嚜 and Rocco Ascone 馃嚝馃嚪 for Halmstad.

IFK Goteborg: 18-time champions, fallen giant; Gamla Ullevi. · Halmstad: Historic 4-time champions, now habitual lower-half side.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

IFK Goteborg (11th)

18-time champions, fallen giant; Gamla Ullevi. 2025: hosted Mjallby's title clincher, finished top-6 and took a UECL spot. 2026: rebuilding continues; top-half ceiling. Big crowds, derby edge vs Hacken/Gais/Orgryte in a 4-club Gothenburg league.

Style Territorial control from 2026
Squad quality 51.3 in league · 8th of 16
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 14th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 11th (26 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
  • WH1-0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • DH1-1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • LA0-3 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • DA1-1 GentUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 5,3,2,1,5
Key players Tobias Heintz 馃嚦馃嚧 56.8, Viktor Andersson 馃嚫馃嚜 51.4, Sam Larsson 馃嚫馃嚜 48.3, Noah Tolf 馃嚫馃嚜 47.3, August Erlingmark 馃嚫馃嚜 45.0
Nationalities 馃嚫馃嚜 30 路 馃嚛馃嚢 7 路 馃嚦馃嚧 5 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
101611th07-05 v AIK Stockholm: -1.507-12 v Malmo FF: -5.007-17 v IF Brommapojkarna: +2.007-26 v Sirius: -4.008-02 v Degerfors IF: +3.008-09 v Kalmar FF: +2.008-16 v Degerfors IF: -4.008-23 v IF Elfsborg: +0.008-30 v Orgryte IS: +2.009-07 v Mjallby AIF: +4.5

Halmstad (16th)

Historic 4-time champions, now habitual lower-half side. Orjans Vall. 2025: survived comfortably despite heavy home defeats. 2026: limited budget, relegation-playoff zone likely; relies on organised defence and set pieces.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 24.2 in league · 16th of 16
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 16th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • WH1-0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • DA1-1 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • LA0-1 BK HackenAllsvenskan
  • LH0-2 GaisAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 2,1,2,1,2
Key players Tim R枚nning 馃嚫馃嚜 52.3, Rocco Ascone 馃嚝馃嚪 50.7, Hussein Carneil 馃嚫馃嚜 36.2, Niilo M盲enp盲盲 馃嚝馃嚠 35.0, Marvin Illary 馃嚚馃嚠 33.4
Nationalities 馃嚫馃嚜 27 路 馃嚞馃嚟 4 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚝馃嚠 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
121616th07-04 v Vasteras SK FK: -4.707-13 v Djurgardens IF: -4.007-19 v BK Hacken: -3.007-26 v Gais: +0.008-03 v Sirius: -3.008-09 v Gais: -3.008-17 v BK Hacken: -2.008-22 v Orgryte IS: +0.008-29 v Kalmar FF: +2.009-05 v Degerfors IF: -3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.