Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

← all leagues

馃嚜馃嚫 La Liga

league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Atletico Madrid (4th) v Osasuna (11th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: ATLETICO MADRID↑ Atletico Madrid TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +24
1 62%
X 25%
2 13%
Prediction: Atletico Madrid to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
vs performances: Atletico Madrid +1.18 (3g) · Osasuna -0.11 (4g)
Squad overlay · Atletico Madrid stronger by 0.44, shifted the price by up to 1.8 pts
xG overlay · Osasuna better on chances than on results by 0.89 goals, shifted the price by up to 4.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes Atletico Madrid clear favourites at 62%, with Osasuna at 13% and the draw at 25%. Atletico Madrid have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 6 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Atletico Madrid the stronger. Watch Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann 馃嚝馃嚪 for Atletico Madrid, and Ante Budimir 馃嚟馃嚪 and Aimar Oroz 馃嚜馃嚫 for Osasuna.

Atletico Madrid: Simeone's machine: 25/26 top-4 with a 13-game unbeaten run; UCL again. · Osasuna: El Sadar = one of Spain's toughest away trips (noise, tight pitch, Pamplona weather).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Atletico Madrid (4th)

Simeone's machine: 25/26 top-4 with a 13-game unbeaten run; UCL again. Metropolitano. Aging spine question persists but defensive baseline elite. Title outsider behind Barca/Madrid; unders and 1-0s remain the brand.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 69.8 in league · 3rd of 20
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 4th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • LA1-2 LiverpoolUCL
  • LA0-3 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • WA3-1 SevillaLa Liga
  • DH2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,4,4,3,3
Key players C. Romero 78.3, Alejandro Grimaldo 77.5, Marc Pubill 馃嚜馃嚫 77.3, D谩vid Hancko 馃嚫馃嚢 75.8, Pablo Barrios 馃嚜馃嚫 75.4
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 17 路 馃嚘馃嚪 7 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
294th08-19 v Malaga: +3.308-23 v Villarreal: -1.408-29 v Sevilla: +3.009-05 v Athletic Club: -4.009-13 v Real Sociedad: +4.0

Osasuna (11th)

El Sadar = one of Spain's toughest away trips (noise, tight pitch, Pamplona weather). 25/26: standard lower-mid safety. Physical, set-piece heavy. Home/away splits among the league's widest; reliable unders away.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 40.3 in league · 16th of 20
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 11th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 EspanyolLa Liga
  • LA2-5 AlavesLa Liga
  • WH1-0 GetafeLa Liga
  • WA2-1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • DH0-0 LevanteLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 0,3,1,7,2
Key players Ante Budimir 馃嚟馃嚪 71.8, Moi G贸mez 馃嚜馃嚫 68.9, Alejandro Catena 68.3, Kike Barja 馃嚜馃嚫 66.5, Rockson Yeboah 馃嚞馃嚟 63.4
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 23 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚫馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
51211th08-24 v Levante: -0.308-27 v Celta Vigo: +3.308-31 v Getafe: +2.509-06 v Alaves: -3.809-12 v Espanyol: -3.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Deportivo La Coruna (6th) v Sevilla (5th)

1 39%
X 28%
2 33%
Prediction: Deportivo La Coruna to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
vs performances: Deportivo La Coruna +0.73 (3g) · Sevilla +0.80 (3g)
Squad overlay · Sevilla stronger by 0.12, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes Deportivo La Coruna the marginal call at 39%, with Sevilla at 33% and the draw at 28%. Deportivo La Coruna are unbeaten in five (9 scored, 6 conceded). Sevilla have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 6 conceded). Watch Yeremay Hernandez and David Mella 馃嚜馃嚫 for Deportivo La Coruna, and Isaac Romero 馃嚜馃嚫 and Djibril Sow 馃嚚馃嚟 for Sevilla.

Deportivo La Coruna: Fallen giant (2000 champions) promoted back to La Liga as Segunda runners-up after years in the wilderness.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Deportivo La Coruna (6th)

Fallen giant (2000 champions) promoted back to La Liga as Segunda runners-up after years in the wilderness. Riazor passion, Atlantic weather. Young talisman-led attack; survival-first, but the fanbase and stadium are top-flight grade.

Style Punished on few chances from 2017
Squad quality 38.9 in league · 18th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 6th (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 GetafeLa Liga
  • WA3-2 VillarrealLa Liga
  • WH3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • DA1-1 MalagaLa Liga
  • DH1-1 ElcheLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 2,2,4,5,2
Key players Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 馃嚞馃嚘 77.2, Luismi Cruz 馃嚜馃嚫 67.5, Leo Rom谩n 馃嚜馃嚫 66.8, Adri脿 Altimira 64.0, Mario Soriano 馃嚜馃嚫 63.5
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 22 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
4136th08-17 v Elche: -0.508-24 v Malaga: -0.408-30 v Valencia: +3.009-05 v Villarreal: +2.009-13 v Getafe: +0.0

Sevilla (5th)

Seville. Faded Europa League kings: another lower-mid 25/26, financial constraints, fan unrest. Sanchez-Pizjuan still intimidating. Squad churn every window. Base case: 10th-14th; any stability would be an upgrade.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 47.2 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 16th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 5th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
  • DA1-1 EspanyolLa Liga
  • LH1-3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • WA3-1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • WH2-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 3,4,4,2,1
Key players Kike Salas 馃嚜馃嚫 72.3, Andres Castrin 71.9, Juan Iglesias 馃嚜馃嚫 70.2, Robbie Ure 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 69.3, Miguel Sierra 65.3
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 20 路 馃嚝馃嚪 4 路 馃嚙馃嚜 3 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 2 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
195th08-15 v Rayo Vallecano: +2.108-22 v Athletic Club: +2.608-29 v Atletico Madrid: -3.009-06 v Espanyol: +0.009-11 v Valencia: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Barcelona (1st)🔥 v Racing Santander (10th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: BARCELONA↑ Barcelona TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +25
1 79%
X 18%
2 4%
Prediction: Barcelona to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 77%
vs performances: Barcelona +0.31 (3g) · Racing Santander -0.33 (3g)
Squad overlay · Barcelona stronger by 0.67, shifted the price by up to 1.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Barcelona clear favourites at 79%, with Racing Santander at 4% and the draw at 18%. Barcelona arrive on a 5-game winning run (21 scored, 4 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 77%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Barcelona the stronger. Watch Lamine Yamal 馃嚜馃嚫 and Pedri 馃嚜馃嚫 for Barcelona, and Inigo Vicente 馃嚜馃嚫 and Andres Martin for Racing Santander.

Barcelona: Back-to-back champions (29th title), sealed with a 2-0 Clasico win; Joan Garcia the league's best keeper (0.70 g/g). · Racing Santander: Segunda champions 25/26, back in the top flight after over a decade; El Sardinero seaside winds.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Barcelona (1st)🔥

strong at home

Back-to-back champions (29th title), sealed with a 2-0 Clasico win; Joan Garcia the league's best keeper (0.70 g/g). Camp Nou return saga ongoing. Young core (Yamal era) peaking; clear title favourite, registration drama the perennial risk.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 89.4 in league · 1st of 20
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-2 LevanteLa Liga
  • WH5-1 FeyenoordUCL
  • WA5-0 ValenciaLa Liga
  • WH5-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • WH2-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 5,2,7,5,6
Key players Lamine Yamal 馃嚜馃嚫 89.3, Raphinha 馃嚙馃嚪 85.0, Pedri 馃嚜馃嚫 84.6, Ferm铆n L贸pez 83.6, Pau Cubars铆 80.8
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 20 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
161st08-23 v Elche: +6.008-27 v Athletic Club: +4.808-31 v Rayo Vallecano: +4.909-06 v Valencia: +6.009-13 v Levante: +3.0

Racing Santander (10th)

Segunda champions 25/26, back in the top flight after over a decade; El Sardinero seaside winds. Front-foot attacking side by Segunda standards. Historic name, thin elite experience; entertaining relegation battler profile.

Squad quality 44.7 in league · 12th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 10th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 AlavesLa Liga
  • LA2-3 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • WH3-2 ElcheLa Liga
  • LA0-1 GetafeLa Liga
  • DH2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 4,1,5,5,3
Key players I帽igo Vicente 馃嚜馃嚫 78.2, Yassir Zabiri 75.3, Andr茅s Mart铆n 馃嚜馃嚫 71.0, Julen Agirrezabala 馃嚜馃嚫 65.7, Asier Villalibre 馃嚜馃嚫 64.7
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 26 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
41410th08-16 v Villarreal: +0.608-23 v Getafe: -2.108-28 v Elche: +2.209-05 v Rayo Vallecano: -2.009-12 v Alaves: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Levante (13th) v Athletic Club (9th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 40%
X 28%
2 32%
Prediction: Levante to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 54%↑0.8
vs performances: Levante -0.02 (4g) · Athletic Club -0.55 (3g)
Squad overlay · Levante stronger by 0.00, shifted the price by up to 0.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Levante the marginal call at 40%, with Athletic Club at 32% and the draw at 28%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Roger Brugue and Carlos Alvarez for Levante, and Nico Williams 馃嚜馃嚫 and Oihan Sancet 馃嚜馃嚫 for Athletic Club.

Levante: Promoted 2025, survived 25/26 (highlight: 4-0 away rout of doomed Girona).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Levante (13th)

Promoted 2025, survived 25/26 (highlight: 4-0 away rout of doomed Girona). Ciutat de Valencia. Modest squad; second-season syndrome watch. Score more than typical strugglers but concede heavily.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 48.5 in league · 7th of 20
Seasons 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 13th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-4 BarcelonaLa Liga
  • DA0-0 MalagaLa Liga
  • WH5-2 Real BetisLa Liga
  • DA0-0 OsasunaLa Liga
  • LA0-3 EspanyolLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,0,7,0,6
Key players A茂ssa Mandi 馃嚛馃嚳 78.0, Adri谩n de la Fuente 77.1, Mathew Ryan 馃嚘馃嚭 77.1, Jon Ander Olasagasti 馃嚜馃嚫 70.6, Etta Eyong 馃嚚馃嚥 62.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 24 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
82013th08-16 v Espanyol: -4.608-24 v Osasuna: +0.308-29 v Real Betis: +4.509-06 v Malaga: -0.309-13 v Barcelona: -3.0

Athletic Club (9th)

Bilbao. Basque-only squad policy, SanAmes fortress. 25/26: European places race, Williams brothers still the engine. Model guarantees floor (academy) and cap (no signings market). Consistent top-6 profile; cup specialists.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 48.3 in league · 8th of 20
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 9th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 ElcheLa Liga
  • WH3-0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • WA2-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • LA0-2 BarcelonaLa Liga
  • LH1-3 SevillaLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 4,2,2,3,2
Key players Yuri Berchiche 77.1, Aitor Paredes 馃嚜馃嚫 69.7, Nico Williams 馃嚜馃嚫 68.3, I帽igo Ruiz de Galarreta 68.2, Robert Navarro 馃嚜馃嚫 66.8
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 34 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1
Season pulse season 2026
8209th08-22 v Sevilla: -2.608-27 v Barcelona: -4.808-30 v Celta Vigo: +4.009-05 v Atletico Madrid: +4.009-12 v Elche: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.