Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚜馃嚫 La Liga

league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Racing Santander (13th) v Alaves (2nd)

≈ SQUAD PARITY↑ Alaves TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +19
1 43%
X 28%
2 28%
Prediction: Racing Santander to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 58%
vs performances: Racing Santander -0.33 (3g) · Alaves +0.76 (4g)
Squad overlay · Alaves stronger by 0.03, shifted the price by up to 0.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes Racing Santander narrow favourites at 43%, with Alaves at 28% and the draw at 28%. Alaves have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Inigo Vicente 馃嚜馃嚫 and Andres Martin for Racing Santander, and Carlos Vicente 馃嚜馃嚫 and Antonio Sivera for Alaves.

Racing Santander: Segunda champions 25/26, back in the top flight after over a decade; El Sardinero seaside winds.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Racing Santander (13th)

Segunda champions 25/26, back in the top flight after over a decade; El Sardinero seaside winds. Front-foot attacking side by Segunda standards. Historic name, thin elite experience; entertaining relegation battler profile.

Squad quality 40.8 in league · 15th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 13th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA2-3 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • WH3-2 ElcheLa Liga
  • LA0-1 GetafeLa Liga
  • DH2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
  • WH4-1 CadizSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYY match totals 4,1,5,5
Key players I帽igo Vicente 馃嚜馃嚫 76.8, Yassir Zabiri 71.7, Andr茅s Mart铆n 馃嚜馃嚫 70.5, Sergio Canales 65.2, Pablo Ram贸n 馃嚜馃嚫 64.8
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 26 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
41413th08-16 v Villarreal: +0.608-23 v Getafe: -2.108-28 v Elche: +2.209-05 v Rayo Vallecano: -2.0

Alaves (2nd)

Vitoria-Gasteiz. Basque survivors; Mendizorroza tight and loud. 25/26: lower mid-table, safe with a couple of weeks to spare. Compact 4-4-2, low scoring. Same script expected: home points vs the bottom half decide everything.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 42.6 in league · 12th of 20
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 14th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 2nd (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
  • WH1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
  • DA1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • WH3-0 GetafeLa Liga
  • LH1-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,3,2,1,7
Key players Lucas Boy茅 馃嚘馃嚪 75.2, Nahuel Tenaglia 馃嚘馃嚪 68.1, Toni Mart铆nez 馃嚜馃嚫 67.7, 脕ngel P茅rez 馃嚨馃嚜 66.3🔥, Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim 63.1
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 19 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚛馃嚳 1 路 馃嚛馃嚧 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
152nd08-15 v Getafe: +4.808-20 v Rayo Vallecano: +0.708-28 v Villarreal: +1.809-06 v Osasuna: +3.8
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Osasuna (8th) v Espanyol (12th)

1 49%
X 27%
2 24%
Prediction: Osasuna to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%↓1.8
vs performances: Osasuna -0.11 (4g) · Espanyol -0.52 (3g)
Squad overlay · Espanyol stronger by 0.08, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
xG overlay · Osasuna better on chances than on results by 0.41 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Osasuna narrow favourites at 49%, with Espanyol at 24% and the draw at 27%. Watch Ante Budimir 馃嚟馃嚪 and Aimar Oroz 馃嚜馃嚫 for Osasuna, and Javi Puado 馃嚜馃嚫 and Edu Exposito for Espanyol.

Osasuna: El Sadar = one of Spain's toughest away trips (noise, tight pitch, Pamplona weather).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Osasuna (8th)

El Sadar = one of Spain's toughest away trips (noise, tight pitch, Pamplona weather). 25/26: standard lower-mid safety. Physical, set-piece heavy. Home/away splits among the league's widest; reliable unders away.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 38.6 in league · 18th of 20
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 8th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA2-5 AlavesLa Liga
  • WH1-0 GetafeLa Liga
  • WA2-1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • DH0-0 LevanteLa Liga
  • LA0-1 GetafeLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,0,3,1,7
Key players Ante Budimir 馃嚟馃嚪 73.8🔥, Moi G贸mez 馃嚜馃嚫 68.4, Alejandro Catena 66.3, Ra煤l Garc铆a de Haro 64.4, Diego Rico 馃嚜馃嚫 61.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 23 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚫馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
5128th08-24 v Levante: -0.308-27 v Celta Vigo: +3.308-31 v Getafe: +2.509-06 v Alaves: -3.8

Espanyol (12th)

Barcelona. Escapology again: an 18-game winless run in 25/26 yet stayed up as rivals collapsed. RCDE Stadium. Perpetual relegation-zone gravity; new-season reset needed. Derby dates vs Barca inflate variance.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 44.3 in league · 11th of 20
Seasons 2024: 15th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 12th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 SevillaLa Liga
  • LA1-2 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • LH1-2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • WH3-0 LevanteLa Liga
  • DH1-1 Real SociedadLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,3,3,3,2
Key players 脕lex Calatrava 馃嚜馃嚫 72.9, Edu Exp贸sito 馃嚜馃嚫 71.7, Marko Dmitrovi膰 馃嚪馃嚫 70.8, Javier Hern谩ndez 66.4, Kike Garc铆a 馃嚜馃嚫 62.6
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 21 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
21412th08-16 v Levante: +4.608-22 v Real Madrid: -1.908-29 v Real Sociedad: -2.509-06 v Sevilla: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Athletic Club (10th) v Elche (19th)

1 58%
X 25%
2 16%
Prediction: Athletic Club to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%↓1.0
vs performances: Athletic Club -0.55 (3g) · Elche -0.80 (3g)
Squad overlay · Athletic Club stronger by 0.17, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
xG overlay · Athletic Club better on chances than on results by 0.29 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Athletic Club clear favourites at 58%, with Elche at 16% and the draw at 25%. Elche have lost 3 straight (6 scored, 13 conceded). Watch Nico Williams 馃嚜馃嚫 and Oihan Sancet 馃嚜馃嚫 for Athletic Club, and Rodrigo Mendoza 馃嚜馃嚫 and Matias Dituro 馃嚘馃嚪 for Elche.

Elche: Survived 25/26 comfortably enough after promotion, playing brave possession football.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Athletic Club (10th)

Bilbao. Basque-only squad policy, SanAmes fortress. 25/26: European places race, Williams brothers still the engine. Model guarantees floor (academy) and cap (no signings market). Consistent top-6 profile; cup specialists.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 48.4 in league · 8th of 20
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 10th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • WA2-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • LA0-2 BarcelonaLa Liga
  • LH1-3 SevillaLa Liga
  • LA2-4 Real MadridLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 6,4,2,2,3
Key players Yuri Berchiche 77.6, Aitor Paredes 馃嚜馃嚫 69.6, I帽igo Ruiz de Galarreta 68.8, Nico Williams 馃嚜馃嚫 67.4, Hugo Rinc贸n 馃嚜馃嚫 66.5
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 34 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1
Season pulse season 2026
82010th08-22 v Sevilla: -2.608-27 v Barcelona: -4.808-30 v Celta Vigo: +4.009-05 v Atletico Madrid: +4.0

Elche (19th)

Survived 25/26 comfortably enough after promotion, playing brave possession football. Martinez Valero. Second-season stability vs small squad; lower-half expectation, decent home draw rate.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 36.4 in league · 19th of 20
Seasons 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 19th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • LA2-3 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • LH0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
  • DA1-1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
  • DA1-1 GironaLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 2,2,5,5,5
Key players David Affengruber 馃嚘馃嚬 71.8, Gonzalo Villar 馃嚜馃嚫 66.1, Pedro Bigas 65.2, V铆ctor Chust 馃嚜馃嚫 65.1, Martim Neto 馃嚨馃嚬 63.4
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 20 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
51919th08-17 v Deportivo La Coruna: +0.508-23 v Barcelona: -6.008-28 v Racing Santander: -2.209-07 v Real Sociedad: -2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Real Madrid (3rd) v Rayo Vallecano (15th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: REAL MADRID↑ Real Madrid TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +69↓ Rayo Vallecano TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -40
1 70%
X 21%
2 8%
Prediction: Real Madrid to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%
vs performances: Real Madrid +0.97 (3g) · Rayo Vallecano -0.38 (3g)
Squad overlay · Real Madrid stronger by 0.55, shifted the price by up to 1.9 pts
xG overlay · Rayo Vallecano better on chances than on results by 0.21 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 70%, with Rayo Vallecano at 8% and the draw at 21%. Real Madrid have won 4 of their last five (14 scored, 5 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Real Madrid the stronger. Watch Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Real Madrid, and Isi Palazon and Jorge de Frutos 馃嚜馃嚫 for Rayo Vallecano.

Real Madrid: 2nd in 25/26, seven behind Barca, and beaten in the title-sealing Clasico; Mbappe still won Pichichi (25).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Real Madrid (3rd)

strong at home

2nd in 25/26, seven behind Barca, and beaten in the title-sealing Clasico; Mbappe still won Pichichi (25). Coaching reset for 26/27 after the post-Ancelotti project stalled. Bernabeu revenue machine; wounded-giant response season - buy the bounce.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 80.3 in league · 2nd of 20
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 InterUCL
  • LA0-1 Real BetisLa Liga
  • WH4-0 MalagaLa Liga
  • WH4-1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • WA2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 6,3,5,4,1
Key players Jude Bellingham 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 86.1, Kylian Mbapp茅 馃嚝馃嚪 85.0, Vin铆cius J煤nior 馃嚙馃嚪 81.8, Arda G眉ler 馃嚬馃嚪 79.7, Dean Huijsen 馃嚦馃嚤 79.3
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 17 路 馃嚙馃嚪 4 路 馃嚝馃嚪 4 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
173rd08-22 v Espanyol: +1.908-26 v Real Sociedad: +5.308-30 v Malaga: +5.809-04 v Real Betis: -2.0

Rayo Vallecano (15th)

Madrid. Vallecas: tiny, three-sided, hostile - beat Atletico 3-0 there in Feb 26 in front of 5,335. Working-class identity, high press. 25/26 mid-table. Giant-killers at home, poor travellers; extreme home/away splits persist.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 42.5 in league · 13th of 20
Seasons 2023: 17th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 15th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • LA2-5 BarcelonaLa Liga
  • DH1-1 AlavesLa Liga
  • LA1-2 SevillaLa Liga
  • LA0-1 Crystal PalaceUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,3,2,7,5
Key players Sergio Camello 馃嚜馃嚫 81.7, Florian Lejeune 馃嚝馃嚪 73.9, Unai L贸pez 馃嚜馃嚫 70.4, Andrei Ra葲iu 馃嚪馃嚧 68.4, Randy Nteka 馃嚝馃嚪 61.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 17 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚪馃嚧 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
91915th08-15 v Sevilla: -2.108-20 v Alaves: -0.708-31 v Barcelona: -4.909-05 v Racing Santander: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.