Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚜馃嚫 La Liga

league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Celta Vigo (16th) v Malaga (18th)

↓ Celta Vigo TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -36
1 62%
X 24%
2 13%
Prediction: Celta Vigo to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%↑2.1
vs performances: Celta Vigo -0.36 (4g) · Malaga -0.71 (4g)
Squad overlay · Celta Vigo stronger by 0.11, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Celta Vigo clear favourites at 62%, with Malaga at 13% and the draw at 24%. Watch Iago Aspas 馃嚜馃嚫 and Borja Iglesias 馃嚜馃嚫 for Celta Vigo, and David Larrubia 馃嚜馃嚫 and Dioni Villalba for Malaga.

Celta Vigo: Balaidos rain and Iago Aspas legacy; 25/26 delivered Europa League qualification - their best finish in years. · Malaga: Back in La Liga via the 25/26 playoff (6-game winning run, 9 unbeaten down the stretch), ending a long absence since the Qatari-era collapse.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Celta Vigo (16th)

Balaidos rain and Iago Aspas legacy; 25/26 delivered Europa League qualification - their best finish in years. Possession-positive mid-tier side. European Thursdays may cost league points; top-half floor looks real.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 46.8 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 16th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 GetafeLa Liga
  • DA0-0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • LH0-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • LH1-2 OsasunaLa Liga
  • DA0-0 ValenciaLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 0,3,2,0,2
Key players Marcos Alonso 馃嚜馃嚫 72.6, Carl Starfelt 馃嚫馃嚜 72.5, Aleix Febas 馃嚜馃嚫 70.4, Javi Gal谩n 馃嚜馃嚫 66.4, Alvaro N煤帽ez 65.8
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 24 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚪馃嚧 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚞馃嚦 1 路 馃嚦馃嚧 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
71716th08-22 v Valencia: +0.008-27 v Osasuna: -3.308-30 v Athletic Club: -4.009-03 v Real Sociedad: +0.009-07 v Getafe: +0.2

Malaga (18th)

Back in La Liga via the 25/26 playoff (6-game winning run, 9 unbeaten down the stretch), ending a long absence since the Qatari-era collapse. La Rosaleda is a 30k cauldron. Promotion momentum + big-club infrastructure; survival still the target.

Style Punished on few chances from 2017
Squad quality 39.1 in league · 17th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 18th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 LevanteLa Liga
  • LA0-4 Real MadridLa Liga
  • DH1-1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
  • LA0-2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • WA2-1 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,2,2,4,0
Key players Alfonso Herrero 馃嚜馃嚫 68.5, Chupete 67.4, Carlos Puga 67.3, David Larrubia 馃嚜馃嚫 67.2, Dani Lorenzo 馃嚜馃嚫 65.0
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 28 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1
Season pulse season 2026
162018th08-19 v Atletico Madrid: -3.308-24 v Deportivo La Coruna: +0.408-30 v Real Madrid: -5.809-06 v Levante: +0.3
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Levante (11th) v Barcelona (1st)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: BARCELONA↑ Barcelona TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +25
1 17%
X 24%
2 59%
Prediction: Barcelona to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 68%↑3.1
vs performances: Levante -0.02 (4g) · Barcelona +0.31 (3g)
Squad overlay · Barcelona stronger by 0.56, shifted the price by up to 2.5 pts
xG overlay · Levante better on chances than on results by 0.73 goals, shifted the price by up to 4.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Barcelona clear favourites at 59%, with Levante at 17% and the draw at 24%. Barcelona arrive on a 4-game winning run (18 scored, 5 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 68%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Barcelona the stronger. Watch Roger Brugue and Carlos Alvarez for Levante, and Lamine Yamal 馃嚜馃嚫 and Pedri 馃嚜馃嚫 for Barcelona.

Levante: Promoted 2025, survived 25/26 (highlight: 4-0 away rout of doomed Girona). · Barcelona: Back-to-back champions (29th title), sealed with a 2-0 Clasico win; Joan Garcia the league's best keeper (0.70 g/g).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Levante (11th)

Promoted 2025, survived 25/26 (highlight: 4-0 away rout of doomed Girona). Ciutat de Valencia. Modest squad; second-season syndrome watch. Score more than typical strugglers but concede heavily.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 52.4 in league · 7th of 20
Seasons 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 11th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 MalagaLa Liga
  • WH5-2 Real BetisLa Liga
  • DA0-0 OsasunaLa Liga
  • LA0-3 EspanyolLa Liga
  • LA1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 3,3,0,7,0
Key players Mathew Ryan 馃嚘馃嚭 82.3, Adri谩n de la Fuente 79.2, A茂ssa Mandi 馃嚛馃嚳 79.0, Jon Ander Olasagasti 馃嚜馃嚫 73.3, Hugo Sotelo 馃嚜馃嚫 63.8
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 24 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
82011th08-16 v Espanyol: -4.608-24 v Osasuna: +0.308-29 v Real Betis: +4.509-06 v Malaga: -0.3

Barcelona (1st)

strong away

Back-to-back champions (29th title), sealed with a 2-0 Clasico win; Joan Garcia the league's best keeper (0.70 g/g). Camp Nou return saga ongoing. Young core (Yamal era) peaking; clear title favourite, registration drama the perennial risk.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 91.2 in league · 1st of 20
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH5-1 FeyenoordUCL
  • WA5-0 ValenciaLa Liga
  • WH5-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • WH2-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • WA5-0 ElcheLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 4,5,2,7,5
Key players Lamine Yamal 馃嚜馃嚫 89.5, Pedri 馃嚜馃嚫 85.4, Raphinha 馃嚙馃嚪 84.7, Ferm铆n L贸pez 83.7, Pau Cubars铆 79.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 20 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
161st08-23 v Elche: +6.008-27 v Athletic Club: +4.808-31 v Rayo Vallecano: +4.909-06 v Valencia: +6.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Getafe (14th) v Deportivo La Coruna (5th)

1 50%
X 27%
2 23%
Prediction: Getafe to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 36%
vs performances: Getafe +0.12 (4g) · Deportivo La Coruna +0.73 (3g)
Squad overlay · Deportivo La Coruna stronger by 0.11, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Getafe narrow favourites at 50%, with Deportivo La Coruna at 23% and the draw at 27%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 36%). Watch Borja Mayoral 馃嚜馃嚫 and Luis Milla 馃嚜馃嚫 for Getafe, and Yeremay Hernandez and David Mella 馃嚜馃嚫 for Deportivo La Coruna.

Getafe: Bordalas-style dark arts: most fouls, fewest open games. · Deportivo La Coruna: Fallen giant (2000 champions) promoted back to La Liga as Segunda runners-up after years in the wilderness.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Getafe (14th)

Bordalas-style dark arts: most fouls, fewest open games. 25/26: 7th-8th zone and the Conference League spot. Coliseum. Europe is new territory; league profile stays a low-scoring grind - a nightmare matchup for big sides.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 32.3 in league · 20th of 20
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 14th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • LA0-1 OsasunaLa Liga
  • LA1-2 FK PartizanUECL
  • WH1-0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • WH3-1 FK PartizanUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 1,3,1,1,2
Key players David Soria 馃嚜馃嚫 76.9, Zaid Romero 馃嚘馃嚪 66.6, Andr茅s Garc铆a 馃嚜馃嚫 61.5, Enes 脺nal 馃嚬馃嚪 61.2, Abdelkabir Abqar 馃嚥馃嚘 60.7
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 23 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚥馃嚘 3 路 馃嚚馃嚥 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚬馃嚞 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
82014th08-15 v Alaves: -4.808-23 v Racing Santander: +2.108-31 v Osasuna: -2.509-07 v Celta Vigo: -0.2

Deportivo La Coruna (5th)

Fallen giant (2000 champions) promoted back to La Liga as Segunda runners-up after years in the wilderness. Riazor passion, Atlantic weather. Young talisman-led attack; survival-first, but the fanbase and stadium are top-flight grade.

Style Frugal finishers from 2017
Squad quality 40.0 in league · 16th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 5th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 VillarrealLa Liga
  • WH3-1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • DA1-1 MalagaLa Liga
  • DH1-1 ElcheLa Liga
  • LH1-2 Las PalmasSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,2,4,5
Key players Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 馃嚞馃嚘 75.9🔥, Luismi Cruz 馃嚜馃嚫 67.3, Leo Rom谩n 馃嚜馃嚫 67.1, Mario Soriano 馃嚜馃嚫 64.8, Lorenzo Amatucci 馃嚠馃嚬 63.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 22 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
4135th08-17 v Elche: -0.508-24 v Malaga: -0.408-30 v Valencia: +3.009-05 v Villarreal: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 3orderly

Real Sociedad (9th) v Atletico Madrid (7th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ Atletico Madrid TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +24
1 32%
X 28%
2 40%
Prediction: Atletico Madrid to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 61%↑0.9
vs performances: Real Sociedad -0.28 (3g) · Atletico Madrid +1.18 (3g)
Squad overlay · Atletico Madrid stronger by 0.20, shifted the price by up to 1.0 pts
xG overlay · Real Sociedad better on chances than on results by 0.12 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Atletico Madrid the marginal call at 40%, with Real Sociedad at 32% and the draw at 28%. Both teams to score looks likely at 65%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Mikel Oyarzabal 馃嚜馃嚫 and Takefusa Kubo 馃嚡馃嚨 for Real Sociedad, and Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann 馃嚝馃嚪 for Atletico Madrid.

Atletico Madrid: Simeone's machine: 25/26 top-4 with a 13-game unbeaten run; UCL again.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Real Sociedad (9th)

San Sebastian. Won the 25/26 Copa del Rey - first major trophy in years - earning Europa League football despite a mid-table league year. Anoeta, elite academy (Zubimendi lineage). Cup pedigree vs league inconsistency; top-8 with knockout upside.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 53.1 in league · 6th of 20
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 12th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 9th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 ElcheLa Liga
  • DH0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • WH2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
  • LA1-4 Real MadridLa Liga
  • LA0-1 Real BetisLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 1,5,3,0,5
Key players 脕lex Remiro 馃嚜馃嚫 76.0, Sergio G贸mez 馃嚜馃嚫 70.7, Jon Martin 70.3, Carlos Soler 馃嚜馃嚫 69.2, Mikel Oyarzabal 馃嚜馃嚫 68.3
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 30 路 馃嚟馃嚪 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
9209th08-21 v Real Betis: -1.808-26 v Real Madrid: -5.308-29 v Espanyol: +2.509-03 v Celta Vigo: +0.009-07 v Elche: +2.0

Atletico Madrid (7th)

Simeone's machine: 25/26 top-4 with a 13-game unbeaten run; UCL again. Metropolitano. Aging spine question persists but defensive baseline elite. Title outsider behind Barca/Madrid; unders and 1-0s remain the brand.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 67.0 in league · 3rd of 20
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 7th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 LiverpoolUCL
  • LA0-3 Athletic ClubLa Liga
  • WA3-1 SevillaLa Liga
  • DH2-2 VillarrealLa Liga
  • WH2-0 MalagaLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 6,2,4,4,3
Key players Marc Pubill 馃嚜馃嚫 76.0, D谩vid Hancko 馃嚫馃嚢 75.5, Pablo Barrios 馃嚜馃嚫 75.0, Alejandro Grimaldo 74.6, Marcos Llorente 馃嚜馃嚫 73.6
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 17 路 馃嚘馃嚪 7 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
276th08-19 v Malaga: +3.308-23 v Villarreal: -1.408-29 v Sevilla: +3.009-05 v Athletic Club: -4.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.