Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚨馃嚬 Primeira Liga

league draws 27% · chaos 75volatile

Arouca (5th) v Santa Clara (4th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 44%
X 26%
2 30%
Prediction: Arouca to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%↓0.9
vs performances: Santa Clara +0.70 (3g)
Squad overlay · Arouca stronger by 0.00, shifted the price by up to 0.0 pts
xG overlay · Santa Clara better on chances than on results by 0.26 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Arouca narrow favourites at 44%, with Santa Clara at 30% and the draw at 26%. Arouca have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 3 conceded). Santa Clara are unbeaten in five (9 scored, 3 conceded). Watch Na茂s Djouahra 馃嚝馃嚪 and Alfonso Trezza 馃嚭馃嚲 for Arouca, and Serginho 馃嚨馃嚬 and Sidney Lima 馃嚙馃嚪 for Santa Clara.

Arouca: Mountain-town minnows, established survivors; 8th in 25/26 (42pts).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Arouca (5th)

FOREIGN CORE 79%

Mountain-town minnows, established survivors; 8th in 25/26 (42pts). Tiny 5k ground up in the Serra - awkward away trip. Sells its best striker annually; 8th-13th projection.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 51.6 in league · 5th of 18
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 5th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • WH2-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • LA0-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • WH4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • WA1-0 Vit贸ria SCPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,4,2,3,0
Key players Ignacio de Arruabarrena 馃嚭馃嚲 73.6, Jose Font谩n 馃嚜馃嚫 59.6, Taichi Fukui 馃嚡馃嚨 58.3, Tiago Esgaio 馃嚨馃嚬 57.9, Pablo Goz谩lbez 馃嚜馃嚫 55.7
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 8 路 馃嚨馃嚬 7 路 馃嚭馃嚲 5 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
155th08-08 v Vit贸ria SC: +2.008-16 v Moreirense: +5.808-23 v FC Porto: -4.208-29 v Maritimo: +2.009-07 v Estoril: +0.0

Santa Clara (4th)

FOREIGN CORE 69%

Ponta Delgada. Azores club: 13th (36pts), survived. Sao Miguel island = the league's longest away trip (2h+ flight), Atlantic weather chaos. Home form structurally inflated; classic travel-tax fixture for visitors.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 51.3 in league · 7th of 18
Seasons 2024: 5th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 4th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • DA1-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • WH1-0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • WA1-0 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
  • DH2-2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 4,1,1,2,4
Key players Gon莽alo Paci锚ncia 馃嚨馃嚬 62.8, Vin铆cius Lopes 馃嚙馃嚪 58.8, Brenner 馃嚙馃嚪 57.3, Pedro Pacheco 馃嚨馃嚬 55.2, Tiago Ribeiro 馃嚨馃嚬 54.5
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 25 路 馃嚨馃嚬 12 路 馃嚚馃嚮 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1
Season pulse season 2026
2144th08-10 v Nacional: +0.108-15 v Academico Viseu: +2.308-23 v Famalicao: +2.208-29 v Alverca: +0.009-06 v Rio Ave: +5.0
league draws 27% · chaos 75volatile

Benfica (2nd)🔥 v GIL Vicente (7th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: BENFICA
1 75%
X 19%
2 7%
Prediction: Benfica to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%↑5.0
vs performances: Benfica -0.12 (4g) · GIL Vicente -0.25 (4g)
Squad overlay · Benfica stronger by 0.47, shifted the price by up to 1.6 pts
xG overlay · GIL Vicente better on chances than on results by 0.57 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Benfica clear favourites at 75%, with GIL Vicente at 7% and the draw at 19%. Benfica arrive on a 4-game winning run (18 scored, 3 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Benfica the stronger. Watch Vangelis Pavlidis 馃嚞馃嚪 and Anatoliy Trubin 馃嚭馃嚘 for Benfica, and Lu铆s Esteves 馃嚨馃嚬 and Murilo Souza for GIL Vicente.

GIL Vicente: Barcelos club, 6th (50pts) - excellent season.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Benfica (2nd)🔥

strong at home

Lisbon. Wild 25/26: Mourinho arrived Sept 2025, went 34 league games unbeaten - and still finished 3rd (80pts) behind Porto and Sporting on draws. Rui Costa re-elected. Luz 65k. Europa League; draw-heavy profile must convert to wins.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 83.7 in league · 1st of 18
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 2nd (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • WA3-0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • WH2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • WA3-1 AarhusUEL
  • WH3-1 AarhusUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,7,3,3,4
Key players Gianluca Prestianni 馃嚘馃嚪 82.0, Andreas Schjelderup 馃嚦馃嚧 78.3, Vangelis Pavlidis 馃嚞馃嚪 73.7, Tom谩s Ara煤jo 馃嚨馃嚬 68.1, Cl茅ment Lenglet 馃嚝馃嚪 65.6
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 19 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚭馃嚘 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
292nd08-09 v Academico Viseu: +1.008-17 v Casa Pia: +6.008-31 v Estoril: +2.809-05 v Maritimo: +4.009-09 v Moreirense: +6.0

GIL Vicente (7th)

Barcelos club, 6th (50pts) - excellent season. Small ground, northern rain. Historically mid-lower; this squad overachieved and faces sales. 7th-11th regression case.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 48.2 in league · 9th of 18
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
  • DA0-0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • WH2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • WH1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • LA0-3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 3,1,2,0,1
Key players Diogo Prioste 馃嚨馃嚬 59.1, Murilo Souza 59.0, Lu铆s Esteves 馃嚨馃嚬 58.7, Santi Garc铆a 馃嚜馃嚫 56.4, Antonio Espigares 52.0
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 13 路 馃嚙馃嚪 7 路 馃嚜馃嚫 4 路 馃嚝馃嚪 4 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
387th08-09 v Rio Ave: +2.608-24 v Casa Pia: +3.508-30 v Famalicao: +0.009-06 v Academico Viseu: -1.2
league draws 27% · chaos 75volatile

Famalicao (14th) v Sporting CP (3rd)🔥

⚡ SQUAD GAP: SPORTING CP
1 17%
X 25%
2 58%
Prediction: Sporting CP to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 50%↑5.0
vs performances: Famalicao -0.64 (4g) · Sporting CP +0.67 (4g)
Squad overlay · Sporting CP stronger by 0.42, shifted the price by up to 2.0 pts
xG overlay · Famalicao better on chances than on results by 0.74 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Sporting CP clear favourites at 58%, with Famalicao at 17% and the draw at 25%. Sporting CP arrive on a 4-game winning run (14 scored, 5 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Sporting CP the stronger. Watch Gustavo Sa and Sorriso 馃嚙馃嚪 for Famalicao, and Luis Suarez and Francisco Trincao for Sporting CP.

Famalicao: Best-ever era: 5th (56pts) in 25/26, comfortably the best of the rest.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Famalicao (14th)

draw merchantsFOREIGN CORE 71%

Best-ever era: 5th (56pts) in 25/26, comfortably the best of the rest. Minho region, modern recruitment (agent-network pipeline). European qualification push again; sells stars every summer.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 46.5 in league · 10th of 18
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 14th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • DH0-0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • LA0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • LH1-2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • DA1-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,3,1,0,4
Key players Rodrigo Pinheiro 馃嚨馃嚬 62.0, Finn van Breemen 馃嚦馃嚤 61.3, Mathias De Amorim 馃嚨馃嚬 56.4, Sorriso 馃嚙馃嚪 54.9, Gil Dias 馃嚨馃嚬 52.4
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 9 路 馃嚙馃嚪 5 路 馃嚜馃嚫 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
21514th08-07 v Estoril: +0.208-16 v Maritimo: -2.508-23 v Santa Clara: -2.208-30 v GIL Vicente: -0.009-05 v Estrela: +0.0

Sporting CP (3rd)🔥

Lisbon. 2nd (82pts) after back-to-back titles - and stunned 2-1 aet by second-tier Torreense in the cup final. Luis Suarez (the Colombian) top-scored with 28. Alvalade. UCL league phase; post-Gyokeres attack rebuilt well; title co-favourite.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 78.7 in league · 2nd of 18
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 GalatasarayUCL
  • WH2-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • WA4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • WH3-1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • WH3-2 Vit贸ria SCPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 4,5,4,4,2
Key players Luis Javier Su谩rez 馃嚚馃嚧 76.8, Eduardo Quaresma 馃嚨馃嚬 73.9, Rodrigo Zalazar 馃嚭馃嚲 71.6, Gon莽alo In谩cio 馃嚨馃嚬 69.9, Zeno Debast 馃嚙馃嚜 66.5
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 20 路 馃嚙馃嚪 6 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
1143rd08-08 v Estrela: +0.808-14 v Vit贸ria SC: +2.008-22 v Alverca: +3.108-28 v Rio Ave: +5.709-05 v Nacional: +3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.