Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚨馃嚬 Primeira Liga

league draws 27% · chaos 75volatile

Nacional (12th) v Alverca (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 38%
X 27%
2 35%
Prediction: Nacional to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 43%↓1.7
vs performances: Nacional -0.05 (4g) · Alverca -0.81 (3g)
Squad overlay · Nacional stronger by 0.05, shifted the price by up to 0.2 pts
xG overlay · Alverca better on chances than on results by 0.75 goals, shifted the price by up to 4.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Nacional the marginal call at 38%, with Alverca at 35% and the draw at 27%. Nacional have lost 3 straight (6 scored, 8 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Jes煤s Ram铆rez and Paulinho B贸ia 馃嚙馃嚪 for Nacional, and Nabil Touaizi and Lincoln 馃嚙馃嚪 for Alverca.

Nacional: Madeira's second club; 14th (34pts), survived. · Alverca: Survived their first Primeira season (11th, 39pts) after back-to-back promotions.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Nacional (12th)

FOREIGN CORE 75%

Madeira's second club; 14th (34pts), survived. Choupana perched above Funchal - altitude-ish, wind, island travel. Yo-yo history; relegation-battle expectation.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 41.8 in league · 14th of 18
Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 12th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • LH2-3 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • LA0-1 Vit贸ria SCPrimeira Liga
  • WH2-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • DA2-2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 4,2,1,5,2
Key players Ze Vitor 馃嚙馃嚪 60.4, Liziero 馃嚙馃嚪 59.3, L茅o Santos 馃嚙馃嚪 56.2, Daniel J煤nior 馃嚙馃嚪 52.8, Filipe Soares 馃嚨馃嚬 51.8
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 15 路 馃嚨馃嚬 8 路 馃嚬馃嚦 2 路 馃嚚馃嚮 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚥馃嚳 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
41211th08-10 v Santa Clara: -0.108-16 v Estoril: +3.608-23 v Vit贸ria SC: -3.208-30 v Estrela: -2.609-05 v Sporting CP: -3.0

Alverca (17th)

draw merchantsFOREIGN CORE 81%

Survived their first Primeira season (11th, 39pts) after back-to-back promotions. Lisbon-area satellite club with Brazilian investment network ties. Second-season syndrome watch; lower-mid target.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 38.3 in league · 15th of 18
Seasons 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 17th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • DH1-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • LA1-3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • DH2-2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
  • LA0-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 2,4,4,2,3
Key players Chiquinho 馃嚨馃嚬 58.7, Kaiky Naves 馃嚙馃嚪 55.1, Isaac James 馃嚦馃嚞 54.0, Steven Baseya 馃嚝馃嚪 53.7, Figueiredo 馃嚙馃嚪 50.9
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 12 路 馃嚨馃嚬 7 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
131816th08-09 v FC Porto: -3.508-15 v Estrela: +0.208-22 v Sporting CP: -3.108-29 v Santa Clara: +0.009-05 v SC Braga: -2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 75volatile

Casa Pia (18th) v FC Porto (1st)🔥

⚡ SQUAD GAP: FC PORTO
1 8%
X 21%
2 71%
Prediction: FC Porto to win (strong) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 45%↓0.7
vs performances: Casa Pia -0.85 (4g) · FC Porto +0.81 (4g)
Squad overlay · FC Porto stronger by 0.48, shifted the price by up to 1.8 pts
xG overlay · Casa Pia better on chances than on results by 0.50 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes FC Porto clear favourites at 71%, with Casa Pia at 8% and the draw at 21%. Casa Pia have lost 4 of their last five (0 scored, 11 conceded). FC Porto arrive on a 5-game winning run (11 scored, 1 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 33%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with FC Porto the stronger. Watch J茅r茅my Livolant 馃嚝馃嚪 and Gaizka Larrazabal 馃嚜馃嚫 for Casa Pia, and Samu Aghehowa and Rodrigo Mora 馃嚨馃嚬 for FC Porto.

Casa Pia: Lisbon's plucky third club; 16th (30pts) in 25/26, survived late. · FC Porto: Champions: 31st title with 88pts and an 11-game winning run; signed 40-year-old Thiago Silva in Dec.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Casa Pia (18th)

Lisbon's plucky third club; 16th (30pts) in 25/26, survived late. Groundshare logistics, tiny fanbase. Defensive-block specialists; relegation-battle regular.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 35.5 in league · 16th of 18
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 18th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Vit贸ria SCPrimeira Liga
  • LH0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • LA0-2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • LH0-7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
  • LA0-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 1,7,2,1,0
Key players Joao Marques 馃嚨馃嚬 54.5, Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira 52.6, Kevin Prieto 馃嚭馃嚲 50.5, J茅r茅my Livolant 馃嚝馃嚪 49.6, Pedro Rosas 馃嚨馃嚬 47.6
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 15 路 馃嚙馃嚪 5 路 馃嚜馃嚫 4 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚚馃嚪 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
151818th08-08 v Maritimo: -2.308-17 v Benfica: -6.008-24 v GIL Vicente: -3.508-30 v Moreirense: -1.809-06 v Vit贸ria SC: +0.0

FC Porto (1st)🔥

strong awayFOREIGN CORE 66%

Champions: 31st title with 88pts and an 11-game winning run; signed 40-year-old Thiago Silva in Dec. Dragao fortress. Villas-Boas-presidency reset complete. UCL league phase; clear top-2 force with the league's best defence.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 72.1 in league · 3rd of 18
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 Manchester CityUCL
  • WH2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • WA3-0 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
  • WH2-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • WA2-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,2,2,3,3
Key players Jan Bednarek 馃嚨馃嚤 77.1, Gabri Veiga 馃嚜馃嚫 72.4, Jakub Kiwior 馃嚨馃嚤 71.9, William Gomes 71.8, Diogo Costa 馃嚨馃嚬 65.0
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 14 路 馃嚜馃嚫 6 路 馃嚙馃嚪 4 路 馃嚨馃嚤 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
141st08-09 v Alverca: +3.508-15 v Rio Ave: +3.708-23 v Arouca: +4.208-29 v Academico Viseu: +4.309-04 v Moreirense: +2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 75volatile

Academico Viseu (10th) v Vit贸ria SC (11th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 26%
2 27%
Prediction: Academico Viseu to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 41%
vs performances: Academico Viseu +0.13 (5g) · Vit贸ria SC -0.62 (3g)
Squad overlay · Academico Viseu stronger by 0.09, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Academico Viseu narrow favourites at 47%, with Vit贸ria SC at 27% and the draw at 26%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 41%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Anthony Correia 馃嚝馃嚪 and Jo茫o Guilherme 馃嚙馃嚪 for Academico Viseu.

Academico Viseu: Promoted 2nd from Liga 2 - first top-flight football in decades for the Beiras city.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Academico Viseu (10th)

FOREIGN CORE 68%

Promoted 2nd from Liga 2 - first top-flight football in decades for the Beiras city. Fontelo Stadium modest. Smallest budget tier; relegation favourite, home scraps essential.

Squad quality 51.4 in league · 6th of 18
Seasons 2026 so far: 10th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • LH0-3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • DA2-2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • LH0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • DA2-2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 4,1,4,3,1
Key players Ewerton 馃嚙馃嚪 71.7, Cihan Kahraman 馃嚬馃嚪 53.2, Nikolaos Michelis 馃嚞馃嚪 53.1, Anthony Correia 馃嚝馃嚪 52.8, Robinho 馃嚨馃嚬 51.7
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 9 路 馃嚙馃嚪 6 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 馃嚥馃嚳 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
51510th08-09 v Benfica: -1.008-15 v Santa Clara: -2.308-22 v Maritimo: +0.308-29 v FC Porto: -4.309-06 v GIL Vicente: +1.2

Vit贸ria SC (11th)

Squad quality 44.4 in league · 12th of 18
Seasons 2026 so far: 11th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • LA0-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • WH1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • LA2-3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • LH0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 1,5,1,1,0
Key players Beni Mukendi 56.1, Gustavo Silva 馃嚙馃嚪 54.5, Telmo Arcanjo 馃嚚馃嚮 53.5, Gon莽alo Nogueira 馃嚨馃嚬 52.4, Samu 52.0
Season pulse season 2026
91812th08-08 v Arouca: -2.008-14 v Sporting CP: -2.008-23 v Nacional: +3.208-31 v SC Braga: -2.309-06 v Casa Pia: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.