Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚦馃嚧 Eliteserien

league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

Viking (2nd) v Kristiansund (13th)

1 77%
X 18%
2 5%
Prediction: Viking to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 71%
vs performances: Viking +0.49 (18g)
Match preview

The model makes Viking clear favourites at 77%, with Kristiansund at 5% and the draw at 18%. Viking have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 5 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 71%. Watch Zlatko Tripic and Yann-Erik de Lanlay 馃嚦馃嚧 for Viking, and Snorre Strand Nilsen 馃嚦馃嚧 and Bendik Bye 馃嚦馃嚧 for Kristiansund.

Viking: Stavanger club; 2025 champions (first title since 1991) and 2026 leaders: 9-game winning run, league's best defence, 5-0 demolition of Bodo/Glimt. · Kristiansund: Small northwest coastal club, top flight most years since 2017.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Viking (2nd)

strong at home

Stavanger club; 2025 champions (first title since 1991) and 2026 leaders: 9-game winning run, league's best defence, 5-0 demolition of Bodo/Glimt. Natural grass, hostile SR-Bank Arena. Defending title while juggling 26/27 UCL qualifiers.

Style Long ball, physical from 2026
Squad quality 64.8 in league · 2nd of 16
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (44 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 VfB StuttgartUCL
  • DA1-1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • WH2-1 AalesundEliteserien
  • WH3-1 Dinamo ZagrebUCL
  • DA2-2 Dinamo ZagrebUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 3,3,3,3,2
Key players Zlatko Tripi膰 馃嚦馃嚧 72.4, Henrik S忙lebakke Falchener 馃嚦馃嚧 61.2, Kristoffer Askildsen 馃嚦馃嚧 57.5, Gianni Stensness 馃嚘馃嚭 54.9, Henrik Heggheim 馃嚦馃嚧 52.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 32 路 馃嚘馃嚭 3 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
1152nd05-24 v Kristiansund BK: +2.207-12 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: -2.307-18 v Sandefjord: +2.907-22 v Lillestrom: +2.107-26 v Aalesund: +0.108-01 v Start: +3.908-08 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: +2.408-14 v Rosenborg: -1.708-30 v Aalesund: +2.809-04 v Sandefjord: +0.0

Kristiansund (13th)

Small northwest coastal club, top flight most years since 2017. Compact artificial-turf Kristiansund Stadion, weather-exposed. 2026: lower mid-table, lost 3-1 at Valerenga in May. Counter-attacking, limited squad depth; relegation playoff risk.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 38.0 in league · 14th of 16
Seasons 2024: 12th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 13th (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 TromsoEliteserien
  • DA2-2 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • LA0-1 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • WH2-1 MoldeEliteserien
  • LA1-2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 3,3,1,4,2
Key players Heine Gikling Bruseth 馃嚦馃嚧 51.1, Dan Peter Ulvestad 馃嚦馃嚧 49.9, Sander Svendsen 馃嚦馃嚧 43.1, Michael Lansing 馃嚭馃嚫 42.1, Adrian S忙ther 馃嚦馃嚧 42.0
league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

HamKam (10th) v Molde (4th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: MOLDE
1 32%
X 25%
2 43%
Prediction: Molde to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 61%↑1.5
vs performances: HamKam +0.14 (18g) · Molde -0.08 (18g)
Match preview

The model makes Molde narrow favourites at 43%, with HamKam at 32% and the draw at 25%. Molde arrive on a 3-game winning run (13 scored, 10 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Molde the stronger. Watch Aleksander Melgalvis and Vegard Kongsro 馃嚦馃嚧 for HamKam, and Kristian Eriksen 馃嚦馃嚧 and Markus Kaasa 馃嚦馃嚧 for Molde.

Molde: 2010s-20s force (5 titles, Haaland alumni) but slipping since 2023.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

HamKam (10th)

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 33.2 in league · 16th of 16
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 10th (23 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-4 RosenborgEliteserien
  • DH2-2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • LA0-3 BrannEliteserien
  • DH1-1 AalesundEliteserien
  • WA3-0 ValerengaEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,3,4,4
Key players Patrick Metcalfe 馃嚚馃嚘 49.4, Aksel Baran Potur 馃嚬馃嚪 48.9, Martin Gjone 馃嚦馃嚧 46.0, Loris Mettler 馃嚚馃嚟 42.0, Blerton Isufi 馃嚦馃嚧 41.7
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 30 路 馃嚫馃嚜 6 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
21410th05-29 v Aalesund: -0.107-12 v Sandefjord: -0.207-18 v Tromso: -4.507-22 v Bodo/Glimt: -5.007-26 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: -2.507-31 v Valerenga: +4.408-09 v Aalesund: +0.508-16 v Brann: -5.008-30 v Kristiansund BK: -0.309-05 v Rosenborg: -5.0

Molde (4th)

2010s-20s force (5 titles, Haaland alumni) but slipping since 2023. Seaside Aker Stadion, artificial turf. 2025 was mediocre by their standards; 2026 mid-table with patchy form. Still among the biggest budgets; dangerous if they click late season.

Style Pass-dominant from 2026
Squad quality 64.5 in league · 3rd of 16
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 4th (33 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
  • WA4-3 ValerengaEliteserien
  • WH3-2 TromsoEliteserien
  • LA1-2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • DH3-3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 6,3,5,7,2
Key players Eirik Hestad 馃嚦馃嚧 65.7, Sivert Sira Hansen 58.7, Emil Breivik 馃嚦馃嚧 54.9, Birk Risa 馃嚦馃嚧 54.6, Sondre Milian Granaas 馃嚦馃嚧 53.2
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 32 路 馃嚛馃嚢 6 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
1114th05-25 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: -1.805-30 v Sandefjord: +1.907-11 v Aalesund: +0.707-18 v Brann: -1.607-26 v KFUM Oslo: +4.408-02 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: +0.408-09 v Kristiansund BK: -0.808-16 v Tromso: +3.008-30 v Valerenga: +2.109-06 v KFUM Oslo: +3.0
league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

KFUM Oslo (14th) v Aalesund (15th)

1 53%
X 24%
2 23%
Prediction: KFUM Oslo to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 62%
vs performances: KFUM Oslo -0.02 (18g) · Aalesund -0.17 (18g)
Match preview

The model makes KFUM Oslo narrow favourites at 53%, with Aalesund at 23% and the draw at 24%. Both teams to score looks likely at 63%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 62%. Watch Robin Rasch 馃嚦馃嚧 and Simen Hestnes 馃嚦馃嚧 for KFUM Oslo, and Vebjorn Hoff 馃嚦馃嚧 for Aalesund.

KFUM Oslo: YMCA-founded Oslo minnows, first promoted 2024; tiny crowds (1,300-2,000) at KFUM Arena, artificial turf. · Aalesund: Orange-clad west coast club, yo-yo history.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

KFUM Oslo (14th)

YMCA-founded Oslo minnows, first promoted 2024; tiny crowds (1,300-2,000) at KFUM Arena, artificial turf. Possession-heavy style unusual for a small club. 2026: fighting relegation again; lost key scorers. Home form is their lifeline.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 34.0 in league · 15th of 16
Seasons 2024: 8th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 14th (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 MoldeEliteserien
  • LA1-4 StartEliteserien
  • DH1-1 LillestromEliteserien
  • WA1-0 SandefjordEliteserien
  • WH2-1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,1,2,5,2
Key players Robin Rasch 馃嚦馃嚧 48.7, Magnus Wolff Eikrem 馃嚦馃嚧 46.4, Bilal Njie 馃嚦馃嚧 41.0, Tore Andre Soras 40.8, Emil Odegaard 39.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 47 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
21413th05-25 v Rosenborg: +3.805-29 v Tromso: -0.207-12 v Bodo/Glimt: -3.307-18 v Lillestrom: -2.407-26 v Molde: -4.408-02 v Kristiansund BK: +1.908-07 v Sandefjord: +2.408-15 v Lillestrom: -0.508-30 v Start: -4.509-06 v Molde: -3.0

Aalesund (15th)

draw merchants

Orange-clad west coast club, yo-yo history. Promoted back for 2026 via 1. divisjon. Artificial turf at Color Line Stadion. Mid-season 2026: scrappy but competitive, notably won 3-2 at Rosenborg. Squad thin; survival is the goal.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 44.5 in league · 9th of 16
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2026 so far: 15th (18 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 StartEliteserien
  • LA1-2 VikingEliteserien
  • DH5-5 ValerengaEliteserien
  • DA1-1 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • LH2-6 TromsoEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 8,2,10,3,2
Key players Mathias Christensen 馃嚛馃嚢 62.7, Endre Hjertager Osenbroch 57.5, Marcus Haagensen Reed 馃嚦馃嚧 45.3, Uba Charles 馃嚦馃嚞 43.6, Hakon Butli Hammer 馃嚦馃嚧 41.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 13 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
91614th05-25 v Tromso: -0.305-29 v Ham-Kam: +0.107-11 v Molde: -0.707-16 v Valerenga: -6.007-26 v Viking: -0.108-02 v Tromso: -4.708-09 v Ham-Kam: -0.508-16 v Valerenga: -0.508-30 v Viking: -2.809-04 v Start: +3.0
league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

Start (16th) v Brann (7th)

1 21%
X 24%
2 55%
Prediction: Brann to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 67%↑1.4
vs performances: Start -0.47 (18g) · Brann -0.02 (18g)
Match preview

The model makes Brann clear favourites at 55%, with Start at 21% and the draw at 24%. Both teams to score looks likely at 65%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 67%. Watch Eirik Schulze 馃嚦馃嚧 and Mathias Bringaker 馃嚦馃嚧 for Start, and Bard Finne 馃嚦馃嚧 and Emil Kornvig 馃嚛馃嚢 for Brann.

Start: Kristiansand sleeping giant, promoted for 2026. · Brann: Bergen giant, passionate Stadion crowd, rainiest city edge.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Start (16th)

Kristiansand sleeping giant, promoted for 2026. Grim return: 10-game winless run by May, shipping goals (3-6 at Viking, 0-5 at Glimt). Bottom of table; clear relegation favourite unless summer window transforms the defence.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2026
Squad quality 39.1 in league · 13th of 16
Seasons 2026 so far: 16th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 AalesundEliteserien
  • WH4-1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
  • LH0-1 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • LH0-3 VikingEliteserien
  • WA2-1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 3,3,1,5,2
Key players Filip Manojlovi膰 馃嚪馃嚫 48.5, John Olav Norheim 馃嚦馃嚧 48.3, Jens Berland Huseb酶 馃嚦馃嚧 47.5, Erlend Segberg 馃嚦馃嚧 43.8, Eirik Schulze 馃嚦馃嚧 41.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 15 路 馃嚛馃嚢 3 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚜馃嚜 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
101616th05-20 v Bodo/Glimt: -4.605-25 v Valerenga: +2.905-29 v Fredrikstad: -2.407-12 v Brann: -2.407-18 v Rosenborg: -4.507-25 v Kristiansund BK: +2.708-01 v Viking: -3.908-08 v Fredrikstad: -1.908-30 v KFUM Oslo: +4.509-04 v Aalesund: -3.0

Brann (7th)

Bergen giant, passionate Stadion crowd, rainiest city edge. Regular top-3 side and Europe participant recently. 2026 mid-season: strong, hammered Tromso 5-0 away; in the leading pack chasing Viking and Glimt. Physical, direct, strong home form.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 57.6 in league · 5th of 16
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 7th (26 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 LillestromEliteserien
  • DA0-0 SandefjordEliteserien
  • WH3-2 PAOKUECL
  • DA1-1 PAOKUECL
  • WH3-0 Ham-KamEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 5,5,3,0,3
Key players Jacob Lungi S酶rensen 馃嚛馃嚢 57.4, Joachim Soltvedt 馃嚦馃嚧 55.2, Simen Vidtun Nilsen 馃嚦馃嚧 52.9, Niklas Castro 馃嚚馃嚤 52.6, Kristall M谩ni Ingason 馃嚠馃嚫 51.7
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 30 路 馃嚛馃嚢 5 路 馃嚠馃嚫 4 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
5147th05-20 v Aalesund: -2.605-24 v Bodo/Glimt: -4.305-29 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: -2.107-12 v Start: +2.407-18 v Molde: +1.607-26 v Valerenga: -1.608-02 v Rosenborg: +1.408-16 v Ham-Kam: +5.008-30 v Sandefjord: -0.209-05 v Lillestrom: -2.0
league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

Fredrikstad (8th) v Sarpsborg 08 (9th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 48%
X 25%
2 27%
Prediction: Fredrikstad to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
vs performances: Fredrikstad +0.34 (18g)
Match preview

The model makes Fredrikstad narrow favourites at 48%, with Sarpsborg 08 at 27% and the draw at 25%. Fredrikstad have won 4 of their last five (8 scored, 3 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Maikel Nieves and Simen Rafn 馃嚦馃嚧 for Fredrikstad, and Sondre Orjasaeter and Joachim Soltvedt 馃嚦馃嚧 for Sarpsborg 08.

Fredrikstad: Historic old-money club (9 titles, mostly pre-1962), returned 2024 and won 2024/25 cup silverware era under Hedenstad. · Sarpsborg 08: Merger club founded 2008; established mid-table Eliteserien resident, occasional cup runs.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Fredrikstad (8th)

Historic old-money club (9 titles, mostly pre-1962), returned 2024 and won 2024/25 cup silverware era under Hedenstad. 2026: inconsistent, suffered a 4-game losing run mid-spring; mid-to-lower table. Plastic pitch; hard to beat at home when settled.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 42.9 in league · 11th of 16
Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 8th (26 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • WA4-1 LillestromEliteserien
  • WH1-0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • WA1-0 StartEliteserien
  • WH1-0 SandefjordEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,1,1,5,3
Key players Fredrik Holm茅 馃嚦馃嚧 56.3, Martin Borsheim 49.2, Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen 馃嚦馃嚧 48.4, Samuel Leach Holm 馃嚫馃嚜 45.9, Max Nilsson 馃嚚馃嚟 44.2
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 26 路 馃嚛馃嚢 6 路 馃嚫馃嚜 4 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚝馃嚧 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
5168th05-25 v Sandefjord: +0.205-29 v Start: +2.407-11 v Lillestrom: -3.007-17 v Bodo/Glimt: -3.107-27 v Rosenborg: -6.008-01 v Sandefjord: +2.208-08 v Start: +1.908-16 v Kristiansund BK: +1.808-30 v Lillestrom: +4.509-04 v Bodo/Glimt: -2.0

Sarpsborg 08 (9th)

Merger club founded 2008; established mid-table Eliteserien resident, occasional cup runs. Artificial turf, Sarpsborg Stadion. 2026: solid start incl 2-1 win at Brann; comfortable mid-table. Develops and sells talent; rarely in extremes.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 44.1 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 9th (24 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • DA0-0 TromsoEliteserien
  • LH1-2 SandefjordEliteserien
  • LA1-2 VikingEliteserien
  • DA3-3 MoldeEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 6,3,3,0,4
Key players Leander 脴y 馃嚦馃嚧 56.8, Bjorn Utvik 馃嚦馃嚧 53.0, Aimar Sher 馃嚫馃嚜 50.6, Claus Niyukuri 馃嚦馃嚧 47.0, Olaus Skarsem 馃嚦馃嚧 42.6

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.