Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚦馃嚧 Eliteserien

league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

Lillestrom (5th) v Valerenga (11th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 46%
X 25%
2 29%
Prediction: Lillestrom to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 64%↑1.3
vs performances: Lillestrom -0.07 (18g) · Valerenga -0.09 (18g)
Match preview

The model makes Lillestrom narrow favourites at 46%, with Valerenga at 29% and the draw at 25%. Both teams to score looks likely at 63%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 64%. Watch Thomas Lehne Olsen 馃嚦馃嚧 and Ruben Gabrielsen 馃嚦馃嚧 for Lillestrom, and Magnus Riisnaes and Petter Strand 馃嚦馃嚧 for Valerenga.

Lillestrom: Traditional club (5 titles) relegated 2024, promoted straight back for 2026. · Valerenga: Oslo's biggest club, promoted back 2025 after shock 2023 relegation.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Lillestrom (5th)

Traditional club (5 titles) relegated 2024, promoted straight back for 2026. Arasen fortress, big rivalry with Valerenga. Mid-season 2026: mid-table, re-establishing; July home game vs leaders Viking a marker. Decent squad for a promoted side.

Style Pass-dominant from 2026
Squad quality 46.3 in league · 8th of 16
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 15th | 2026 so far: 5th (29 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 BrannEliteserien
  • LH1-4 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • WH2-1 Egnatia Rrogozhin毛UEL
  • DA0-0 Egnatia Rrogozhin毛UEL
  • DA1-1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 4,2,2,5,3
Key players V谩 馃嚘馃嚧 56.9, Lars Ranger 馃嚦馃嚧 53.1, Pontus Dahlberg 馃嚫馃嚜 46.6, Ruben Gabrielsen 馃嚦馃嚧 46.2, Fredrik Gulbrandsen 馃嚦馃嚧 44.0
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 16 路 馃嚫馃嚜 4 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 馃嚘馃嚧 1 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
265th05-20 v Kristiansund BK: -2.005-25 v Ham-Kam: -2.907-11 v Fredrikstad: +3.007-18 v KFUM Oslo: +2.407-22 v Viking: -2.107-31 v Bodo/Glimt: -5.908-09 v Rosenborg: -2.908-15 v KFUM Oslo: +0.508-30 v Fredrikstad: -4.509-05 v Brann: +2.0

Valerenga (11th)

Oslo's biggest club, promoted back 2025 after shock 2023 relegation. Intility Arena, strong away support. 2026: good form, beat Kristiansund 3-1; upper mid-table pushing for Europe. Derby intensity vs Lillestrom. Solid spine, improving.

Style Fast and clean from 2026
Squad quality 47.9 in league · 7th of 16
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 11th (22 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • LH3-4 MoldeEliteserien
  • DA5-5 AalesundEliteserien
  • LH1-2 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • LH0-3 Ham-KamEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,3,10,7,4
Key players Henrik Bj酶rdal 馃嚦馃嚧 57.0, Filip Thorvaldsen 馃嚦馃嚧 55.0, Lucas Haren 馃嚛馃嚢 50.8, Mathias Grundetjern 馃嚦馃嚧 50.3, Carl Lange 馃嚛馃嚢 48.0
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 24 路 馃嚛馃嚢 7 路 馃嚝馃嚠 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
21311th05-25 v Start: -2.905-29 v Kristiansund BK: +3.807-11 v Tromso: -5.307-16 v Aalesund: +6.007-26 v Brann: +1.607-31 v Ham-Kam: -4.408-08 v Bodo/Glimt: -2.308-16 v Aalesund: +0.508-30 v Molde: -2.109-06 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: +0.0
league draws 19% · chaos 13orderly

Rosenborg (6th) v Tromso (3rd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 43%
X 25%
2 32%
Prediction: Rosenborg to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%↑0.7
vs performances: Rosenborg -0.06 (18g) · Tromso +0.27 (19g)
Match preview

The model makes Rosenborg narrow favourites at 43%, with Tromso at 32% and the draw at 25%. Rosenborg have won 3 of their last five (12 scored, 8 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Ole Saeter and Santeri Vaananen for Rosenborg, and Sakarias Opsahl 馃嚦馃嚧 and Jakob Romsaas 馃嚦馃嚧 for Tromso.

Tromso: World's northernmost top-flight club; polar night, snow, artificial turf = genuine home distortion.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Rosenborg (6th)

Trondheim. Norway's record champions (26 titles) in a long trophy drought since 2018. Lerkendal draws 15-21k, best-supported club. 2026: erratic; lost 2-3 at home to promoted Aalesund, drew Glimt 2-2. Young attack; top-4 target, title unlikely.

Style Pass-dominant from 2026
Squad quality 58.9 in league · 4th of 16
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 6th (27 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • LA2-4 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • WH2-1 VikingEliteserien
  • WA2-0 LillestromEliteserien
  • LA2-3 BrannEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 5,2,3,6,4
Key players Ole Selnaes 67.2, Emil Konradsen Ceide 66.1, Amin Chiakha 馃嚛馃嚢 60.0, Jonas Svensson 馃嚦馃嚧 50.8, Iver Fossum 馃嚦馃嚧 50.4
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 27 路 馃嚛馃嚢 6 路 馃嚫馃嚜 5 路 馃嚫馃嚢 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
6166th05-25 v KFUM Oslo: -3.805-29 v Bodo/Glimt: -0.307-12 v Kristiansund BK: +4.907-18 v Start: +4.507-27 v Fredrikstad: +6.008-02 v Brann: -1.408-09 v Lillestrom: +2.908-14 v Viking: +1.708-30 v Bodo/Glimt: -3.909-05 v Ham-Kam: +5.0

Tromso (3rd)

World's northernmost top-flight club; polar night, snow, artificial turf = genuine home distortion. 2026: excellent, 2nd at the spring break and tracking UCL qualifying spots, though beaten 0-5 by Brann and 0-5 at Glimt in blips. Well coached.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 51.9 in league · 6th of 16
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 14th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 3rd (35 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • DH0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • LA0-4 BrightonUECL
  • DH0-0 BrightonUECL
  • LA2-3 MoldeEliteserien
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 5,8,5,0,2
Key players Jakob Haugaard 馃嚛馃嚢 55.6, David Edvardsson 馃嚫馃嚜 54.4, Vetle Skjaervik 51.1, Isak Vadebu 46.6, Mathias Tonnessen 45.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚧 34 路 馃嚫馃嚜 4 路 馃嚛馃嚢 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚝馃嚠 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
133rd05-10 v Molde: +3.405-16 v Bodo/Glimt: -6.005-25 v Aalesund: +0.305-29 v KFUM Oslo: +0.207-11 v Valerenga: +5.307-18 v Ham-Kam: +4.508-02 v Aalesund: +4.708-16 v Molde: -3.008-30 v Sarpsborg 08 FF: +0.409-06 v Kristiansund BK: -3.1

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.