Daily Football Model

2026-07-18 · 6 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇳🇴 Eliteserien

HamKam (6th) v Tromso (1st)

draw risk: high
1 36%
X 25%
2 38%
Prediction: Tromso to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean)
Club briefings

HamKam (6th)

Hamarkameratene, the Hamar comrades, lakeside on Mjosa and at Briskeby since 1936. Historically a yo-yo club with more second-tier seasons than top-flight ones, but established back in the elite since 2022 and comfortably mid-table at the 2026 break.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 6th (18 pts)
Form WLWDD
Goals for 1,1,2,2,2 conceded 0,2,0,2,2
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 1,3,2,4,4
Key players Kristian Eriksen (goals), Jonas Enkerud (wide creativity), Aleksander Melgalvis (experienced full-back). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Tromso (1st)

The world's northernmost top-flight club. Artificial turf, polar night, and 'Fort Alfheim', where Chelsea were beaten in a 1997 blizzard. Cup winners in 1986 and 1996, silver medallists in 2023, and flying in 2026: second at the break.

Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 14th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 1st (28 pts)
Form WLDDW
Goals for 2,0,1,0,4 conceded 0,5,1,0,0
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,5,2,0,4
Key players Sakarias Opsahl (playmaker), Runar Espejord (physical striker), Niklas Vesterlund (defensive organiser). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Kristiansund (15th) v Sarpsborg 08 (7th)

draw risk: high
1 35%
X 25%
2 39%
Prediction: Sarpsborg 08 to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean)
Club briefings

Kristiansund (15th)

KBK, from the clipfish town on the Nordmore coast, first reached the top flight only in 2017 and made organised stubbornness an identity. Back in the Eliteserien after a spell down, and sat just above the relegation fray at the 2026 break.

Seasons 2024: 12th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 15th (11 pts)
Form LWLLL
Goals for 0,2,1,1,0 conceded 1,1,2,3,3
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,3,3,4,3
Key players Bendik Bye (veteran forward), Snorre Strand Nilsen (midfield), Amidou Diop (physical presence). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Sarpsborg 08 (7th)

Founded only in 2008 from a merger in the old paper-mill town on the Glomma, and built to punch upwards: a Europa League group stage in 2018-19 and cup finals in 2015 and 2017. A slow 2026 brought a spring coaching change.

Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 7th (17 pts)
Form WLWWW
Goals for 2,2,2,2,1 conceded 1,3,1,1,0
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 3,5,3,3,1
Key players Sondre Orjasaeter (match-winning winger, if not yet sold), Alexander Ruud Tveter (striker), Bjorn Inge Utvik (captain at the back). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Lillestrom (4th) v KFUM Oslo (13th)

draw risk: high
1 49%
X 25%
2 26%
Prediction: Lillestrom to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean)
Club briefings

Lillestrom (4th)

Romerike's canaries, five titles, the last in 1989, and a famously partisan Arasen. Relegated in 2024, they came straight back up and carried promotion momentum into 2026, top four at the break; a big club reasserting itself.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 15th | 2026 so far: 4th (22 pts)
Form LWLLW
Goals for 0,3,1,0,2 conceded 2,1,2,2,0
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 2,4,3,2,2
Key players Gjermund Asen (creative hub), Thomas Lehne Olsen (target-man and club icon), Magnus Knudsen (midfield legs). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

KFUM Oslo (13th)

'Kaffa', the YMCA club from Ekeberg, the smallest budget and ground in the league, in the top flight for the first time only since 2024. Possession-brave and unbothered by reputations, they have made survival look nearly routine, though another scrap loomed at the 2026 break.

Seasons 2024: 8th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 13th (12 pts)
Form LLWDL
Goals for 0,1,2,0,0 conceded 2,2,0,0,2
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 2,3,2,0,2
Key players Robin Rasch (captain and conductor), Jonas Hjorth (striker), Momodou Njie (defence). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Start (16th) v Rosenborg (12th)

1 33%
X 25%
2 42%
Prediction: Rosenborg to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean)
Club briefings

Start (16th)

IK Start of Kristiansand, the south coast's club, champions in 1978 and 1980 when their golden generation briefly ruled Norway. Long second-tier spells since; promoted back for 2026 and scrapping near the wrong end at the break.

Seasons 2026 so far: 16th (7 pts)
Form LLWLL
Goals for 3,1,2,1,1 conceded 6,4,0,2,2
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 9,5,2,3,3
Key players Eirik Schulze (playmaker), Mathias Bringaker (striker), Kasper Skaanes (winger). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Rosenborg (12th)

Trondheim. Norway's serial champions: 26 league titles, 13 of them consecutive from 1992 to 2004, when European nights at Lerkendal included beating Milan at San Siro. The modern era is leaner; another trophyless 2025 became a poor start to 2026, and the head coach paid for it in May.

Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 12th (12 pts)
Form WLLDW
Goals for 2,2,0,2,3 conceded 0,3,2,2,0
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,5,2,4,3
Key players Ole Saeter (talismanic striker), Santeri Vaananen (midfield anchor), Jesper Reitan-Sunde (direct winger). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Molde (5th) v Brann (9th)

1 45%
X 25%
2 30%
Prediction: Molde to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong)
Club briefings

Molde (5th)

The fjord-side club backed by Aker money; five titles between 2011 and 2022, and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's home town and twice his managerial home. Deep European runs are routine, including a strong Conference League showing in 2024-25. Fifth at the 2026 break, good without yet looking like champions.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 5th (20 pts)
Form LWLWD
Goals for 0,1,1,2,2 conceded 2,0,2,1,2
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 2,1,3,3,4
Key players Jacob Karlstrom (target man), Fredrik Gulbrandsen (experienced forward), Anders Hagelskjaer (centre-back). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Brann (9th)

Bergen, founded 1908; three league titles and, in Bataljonen, one of the country's loudest ends. Took silver in 2023 straight after promotion and have been a European regular since, including a Conference League league-phase campaign. Steady upper-mid-table by the 2026 summer break.

Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 9th (16 pts)
Form WLLLW
Goals for 2,1,1,1,2 conceded 1,2,3,2,1
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,3,4,3,3
Key players Bard Finne (veteran forward), Felix Horn Myhre (box-to-box engine), Mathias Dyngeland (goalkeeper). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Viking (2nd) v Sandefjord (10th)

1 71%
X 20%
2 9%
Prediction: Viking to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong)
Club briefings

Viking (2nd)

Stavanger, dark blue since 1899, the oil capital's club. Eight championships through 1991, then a 34-year wait ended with the 2025 title. The champions have carried it on: top of the table at the 2026 break, setting the pace everyone else is chasing.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (27 pts)
Form WWWWL
Goals for 3,2,6,2,0 conceded 0,0,3,1,1
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,2,9,3,1
Key players Zlatko Tripic (captain and set-piece threat), Yann-Erik de Lanlay (veteran winger), Edvin Austbo (homegrown talent). Squad list last verified mid-2025.

Sandefjord (10th)

From Vestfold's old whaling capital, a 1998 merger club that has made survival on modest means an art form at the Jotun Arena. Rarely glamorous, awkward to visit. Beat the drop again in 2025 and sat safely mid-table at the 2026 break.

Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 10th (15 pts)
Form WLDLD
Goals for 2,1,1,1,2 conceded 0,3,1,2,2
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,4,2,3,4
Key players William Kurtovic (midfield anchor), Sivert Gussias (leads the line), Sander Moen Foss (centre-back). Squad list last verified mid-2025.