Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚠馃嚬 Serie A

league draws 25% · chaos 100volatile

Lecce (14th) v Monza (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 27%
2 25%
Prediction: Lecce to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 42%
vs performances: Lecce +0.24 (3g)
Squad overlay · Lecce stronger by 0.14, shifted the price by up to 1.1 pts
xG overlay · Monza better on chances than on results by 0.95 goals, shifted the price by up to 4.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Lecce narrow favourites at 47%, with Monza at 25% and the draw at 27%. Lecce have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 7 conceded). Monza have lost 4 of their last five (5 scored, 13 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Wladimiro Falcone 馃嚠馃嚬 and Lassana Coulibaly 馃嚥馃嚤 for Lecce, and Dany Mota 馃嚨馃嚬 and Matteo Pessina 馃嚠馃嚬 for Monza.

Lecce: Perennial survival artists from the deep south; Via del Mare loud, hot late-season. · Monza: Straight back up: 3rd in Serie B, then won the playoff final vs Catanzaro (position rule after 2-2 agg) under Paolo Bianco.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Lecce (14th)

FOREIGN CORE 94%

Perennial survival artists from the deep south; Via del Mare loud, hot late-season. 25/26: stayed up again on organisation and home points. Smallest budgets in the division; classic 17th-15th target.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 34.0 in league · 19th of 20
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 17th | 2025: 17th | 2026 so far: 14th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 CagliariSerie A
  • LH0-4 AS RomaSerie A
  • WA2-0 VeneziaSerie A
  • WH1-0 GenoaSerie A
  • WA3-2 SassuoloSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 5,1,2,4,1
Key players Wladimiro Falcone 馃嚠馃嚬 76.7, Tiago Gabriel 馃嚨馃嚬 69.9, Lameck Banda 馃嚳馃嚥 67.5, Lassana Coulibaly 馃嚥馃嚤 64.4, Jamil Siebert 馃嚛馃嚜 63.9
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 5 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚘馃嚤 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 +19 more
Season pulse season 2026
21414th08-23 v Venezia: +3.008-31 v AS Roma: -6.009-07 v Cagliari: -2.6

Monza (17th)

Straight back up: 3rd in Serie B, then won the playoff final vs Catanzaro (position rule after 2-2 agg) under Paolo Bianco. U-Power Stadium small. Berlusconi-era project now leaner; promoted-side survival battle expected.

Style Patient but blunt from 2024
Squad quality 23.5 in league · 20th of 20
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 20th | 2026 so far: 17th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 ParmaSerie A
  • LH2-3 UdineseSerie A
  • LA1-4 InterSerie A
  • LH0-2 CatanzaroSerie B
  • WA2-0 CatanzaroSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 4,2,5,5,2
Key players Ricardo Mangas 馃嚨馃嚬 67.1, Gustavo Varela 馃嚨馃嚬 65.6, Andrea Colpani 馃嚠馃嚬 65.5, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro 馃嚦馃嚞 63.0, Idrissa Tour茅 61.9
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 24 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚞 1 路 馃嚞馃嚩 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
172017th08-22 v Inter: -3.908-29 v Udinese: -1.609-06 v Parma: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 100volatile

Napoli (12th) v Bologna (15th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY↓ Bologna TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -48
1 55%
X 26%
2 19%
Prediction: Napoli to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
vs performances: Bologna -1.68 (3g)
Squad overlay · Napoli stronger by 0.06, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
xG overlay · Bologna better on chances than on results by 0.39 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Napoli narrow favourites at 55%, with Bologna at 19% and the draw at 26%. Napoli have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Kevin De Bruyne 馃嚙馃嚜 and Scott McTominay 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 for Napoli, and Riccardo Orsolini 馃嚠馃嚬 and Santiago Castro 馃嚘馃嚪 for Bologna.

Bologna: Sustained top-half force after the 23/24 UCL breakthrough; 25/26 upper mid-table, European race until late.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Napoli (12th)

Naples. 2nd in 25/26, ceding the Scudetto to Inter after their 24/25 triumph; back in the UCL. Maradona intensity. Conte-era standards embedded, ownership rows recurring. Clear top-3 quality; title challenger if the squad holds.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 52.1 in league · 7th of 20
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 12th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 ArsenalUCL
  • LA2-3 InterSerie A
  • LH1-2 ComoSerie A
  • WA2-0 GenoaSerie A
  • WH1-0 UdineseSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,1,2,3,5
Key players Amir Rrahmani 馃嚱馃嚢 83.2, Kevin De Bruyne 馃嚙馃嚜 74.9, Scott McTominay 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 72.5, Math铆as Olivera 馃嚭馃嚲 69.7, Giovanni Di Lorenzo 馃嚠馃嚬 69.2
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 15 路 馃嚙馃嚪 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
21212th08-22 v Genoa: +3.008-30 v Como: -1.809-05 v Inter: -2.0

Bologna (15th)

FOREIGN CORE 67%

Sustained top-half force after the 23/24 UCL breakthrough; 25/26 upper mid-table, European race until late. Dall'Ara. Sells a starter every summer yet reloads. Solid, low-drama; Europe-or-8th range.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 47.4 in league · 10th of 20
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 15th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 SassuoloSerie A
  • LA0-1 AtalantaSerie A
  • LH0-1 LazioSerie A
  • DH3-3 InterSerie A
  • WA1-0 AtalantaSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 1,6,1,1,4
Key players Emil Holm 馃嚫馃嚜 75.6, Juan Miranda 馃嚜馃嚫 74.5, Nikola Moro 馃嚟馃嚪 71.5, Lewis Ferguson 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 69.6, Federico Bernardeschi 馃嚠馃嚬 69.0
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 12 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 +15 more
Season pulse season 2026
121515th08-24 v Lazio: -1.408-31 v Atalanta: -1.409-06 v Sassuolo: +0.1
league draws 25% · chaos 100volatile

Sassuolo (11th) v Juventus (5th)

↑ Juventus TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +36
1 20%
X 25%
2 54%
Prediction: Juventus to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
vs performances: Sassuolo -0.36 (3g)
Squad overlay · Juventus stronger by 0.22, shifted the price by up to 1.8 pts
xG overlay · Juventus better on chances than on results by 0.34 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Juventus narrow favourites at 54%, with Sassuolo at 20% and the draw at 25%. Watch Domenico Berardi 馃嚠馃嚬 and Andrea Pinamonti 馃嚠馃嚬 for Sassuolo, and Kenan Yildiz and Jonathan David 馃嚚馃嚘 for Juventus.

Sassuolo: Back in A and safely mid-table 25/26; Mapei Stadium shared, small crowds. · Juventus: 6th in 25/26 = Europa League; final-day Turin derby marred by ultras clashes.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sassuolo (11th)

Back in A and safely mid-table 25/26; Mapei Stadium shared, small crowds. Player-trading model (Berardi legacy). Attack-first identity returns decent goal markets; 10th-15th expectation.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 48.5 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2023: 19th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 11th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 BolognaSerie A
  • WH2-1 TorinoSerie A
  • LA1-2 AtalantaSerie A
  • LA0-1 ParmaSerie A
  • LH2-3 LecceSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 5,1,3,3,4
Key players Arijanet Muri膰 馃嚱馃嚢 75.1, Domenico Berardi 馃嚠馃嚬 71.5, Armand Laurient茅 馃嚝馃嚪 71.0, Sebastiano Esposito 馃嚠馃嚬 70.7, Kristian Thorstvedt 馃嚦馃嚧 69.8
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 16 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
101610th08-23 v Atalanta: -1.008-29 v Torino: +2.009-06 v Bologna: -0.1

Juventus (5th)

6th in 25/26 = Europa League; final-day Turin derby marred by ultras clashes. Allianz Stadium. Post-scandal rebuild still short of the top-4 standard; huge pressure on management. Squad value says top-4, output says 5th-6th.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 65.1 in league · 4th of 20
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 4th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 5th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 AC MilanSerie A
  • WH2-0 ParmaSerie A
  • WA1-0 FrosinoneSerie A
  • DA2-2 TorinoSerie A
  • LH0-2 FiorentinaSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 2,4,1,2,2
Key players Manuel Locatelli 馃嚠馃嚬 83.3, Bremer 馃嚙馃嚪 80.2, Kenan Y谋ld谋z 馃嚬馃嚪 78.6, Jhon Lucum铆 馃嚚馃嚧 74.8, Pierre Kalulu 馃嚝馃嚪 73.5
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 14 路 馃嚙馃嚪 3 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
286th08-23 v Frosinone: +2.808-29 v Parma: +3.709-06 v AC Milan: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.