Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚠馃嚬 Serie A

league draws 25% · chaos 100volatile

Genoa (19th) v Frosinone (7th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 43%
X 27%
2 29%
Prediction: Genoa to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
Squad overlay · Genoa stronger by 0.01, shifted the price by up to 0.1 pts
xG overlay · Genoa better on chances than on results by 0.26 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Genoa narrow favourites at 43%, with Frosinone at 29% and the draw at 27%. Genoa have lost 5 straight (2 scored, 10 conceded). Frosinone have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 4 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Ruslan Malinovskyi 馃嚭馃嚘 and Nicolae Stanciu 馃嚪馃嚧 for Genoa, and Far茅s Ghedjemis 馃嚝馃嚪 and Antonio Raimondo 馃嚠馃嚬 for Frosinone.

Genoa: Oldest Italian club; Marassi atmosphere elite. · Frosinone: Promoted 2nd from Serie B with an 81-point season, sealed via a 5-0 demolition of Mantova.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Genoa (19th)

FOREIGN CORE 72%

Oldest Italian club; Marassi atmosphere elite. 25/26: unglamorous lower-mid safety. Sells its best striker most windows; the Derby della Lanterna stays on hold with Sampdoria still in B. Survival-plus is the target.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 41.2 in league · 15th of 20
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 19th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-4 ComoSerie A
  • LA0-1 LazioSerie A
  • LH0-2 NapoliSerie A
  • LA0-1 LecceSerie A
  • LH1-2 AC MilanSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,2,1,5
Key players Leo 脴stig氓rd 馃嚦馃嚧 79.3, Aar贸n Mart铆n 馃嚜馃嚫 70.4, Junior Messias 馃嚙馃嚪 68.6, Alexsandro Amorim 馃嚙馃嚪 66.6, Morten Frendrup 馃嚛馃嚢 64.9
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 10 路 馃嚦馃嚧 3 路 馃嚛馃嚢 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +16 more
Season pulse season 2026
151919th08-22 v Napoli: -3.008-30 v Lazio: -2.509-04 v Como: -4.0

Frosinone (7th)

Promoted 2nd from Serie B with an 81-point season, sealed via a 5-0 demolition of Mantova. Stirpe pitch famously good; club develops loan gems (Ghedjemis, Raimondo shone). Yo-yo club aiming to break the immediate-relegation cycle.

Style Pass-dominant from 2023
Squad quality 40.2 in league · 17th of 20
Seasons 2023: 18th | 2026 so far: 7th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 VeneziaSerie A
  • WA3-0 FiorentinaSerie A
  • LH0-1 JuventusSerie A
  • WH5-0 MantovaSerie B
  • WA1-0 Juve StabiaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,1,1,3,5
Key players Giacomo Cal貌 馃嚠馃嚬 79.5, Patrizio Masini 馃嚠馃嚬 69.2, Ilario Monterisi 馃嚠馃嚬 68.1, Gabriele Bracaglia 馃嚠馃嚬 66.7, Giorgio Cittadini 馃嚠馃嚬 66.2
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 22 路 馃嚘馃嚤 2 路 馃嚞馃嚘 2 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
6147th08-23 v Juventus: -2.808-29 v Fiorentina: +3.609-06 v Venezia: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 100volatile

Lazio (3rd) v AC Milan (6th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ AC Milan TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +21
1 33%
X 27%
2 40%
Prediction: AC Milan to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 34%
vs performances: Lazio +1.43 (3g)
Squad overlay · AC Milan stronger by 0.27, shifted the price by up to 2.1 pts
xG overlay · AC Milan better on chances than on results by 0.15 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes AC Milan the marginal call at 40%, with Lazio at 33% and the draw at 27%. Lazio arrive on a 4-game winning run (6 scored, 4 conceded). AC Milan have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 5 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 34%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Valentin Castellanos 馃嚘馃嚪 and Nuno Tavares 馃嚨馃嚬 for Lazio, and Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao for AC Milan.

AC Milan: Agonising 25/26: a 24-game unbeaten run yet missed the top-4 on the final day (2-1 home loss to Cagliari), settling for the UEL.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Lazio (3rd)

Rome. Messy 25/26: mid-table, transfer-ban/finance constraints, and a 2,000-attendance home match amid fan protests. Olimpico co-tenant. Sarri-ball echoes without depth. Wide outcome range; unrest is a real performance drag.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 44.2 in league · 11th of 20
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 3rd (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 UdineseSerie A
  • WH1-0 GenoaSerie A
  • WA1-0 BolognaSerie A
  • WH2-1 PisaSerie A
  • LA0-2 AS RomaSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 2,3,1,1,3
Key players Nuno Tavares 馃嚨馃嚬 73.6, Davide Frattesi 馃嚠馃嚬 71.1, Pedro 馃嚜馃嚫 70.0, Alessio Romagnoli 馃嚠馃嚬 69.4, Danilo Cataldi 馃嚠馃嚬 67.7
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 14 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚜馃嚫 3 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
3113rd08-24 v Bologna: +1.408-30 v Genoa: +2.509-07 v Udinese: +2.5

AC Milan (6th)

FOREIGN CORE 70%

Agonising 25/26: a 24-game unbeaten run yet missed the top-4 on the final day (2-1 home loss to Cagliari), settling for the UEL. San Siro future debate rumbles. Draw-heavy profile; elite floor, closing-out games the flaw.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 64.4 in league · 5th of 20
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 8th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 6th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 JuventusSerie A
  • WH2-0 VeneziaSerie A
  • WA2-1 TorinoSerie A
  • LH1-2 CagliariSerie A
  • WA2-1 GenoaSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 3,3,3,2,2
Key players Luka Modri膰 馃嚟馃嚪 80.3, Mario Gila Fuentes 馃嚚馃嚤 78.5, Mike Maignan 馃嚝馃嚪 78.1, Strahinja Pavlovi膰 馃嚪馃嚫 78.0, Adrien Rabiot 馃嚝馃嚪 77.6
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 11 路 馃嚝馃嚪 5 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
155th08-23 v Torino: +2.308-28 v Venezia: +3.709-06 v Juventus: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 100volatile

Atalanta (9th) v Cagliari (8th)

↓ Atalanta TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -52
1 61%
X 25%
2 14%
Prediction: Atalanta to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 40%
vs performances: Cagliari +0.74 (3g)
Squad overlay · Atalanta stronger by 0.17, shifted the price by up to 1.2 pts
xG overlay · Cagliari better on chances than on results by 0.10 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
Match preview

The model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 61%, with Cagliari at 14% and the draw at 25%. Cagliari have won 4 of their last five (6 scored, 3 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 40%). Watch Charles De Ketelaere 馃嚙馃嚜 and Gianluca Scamacca 馃嚠馃嚬 for Atalanta, and Zito Luvumbo 馃嚘馃嚧 and Elia Caprile 馃嚠馃嚬 for Cagliari.

Cagliari: Survival specialists with a flair for drama: their final-day 2-1 win at Milan knocked the Rossoneri out of the top 4.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Atalanta (9th)

Bergamo. The overachievement machine finally cooled: 7th and a Conference League spot in 25/26. Gewiss Stadium rebuilt. Post-Gasperini identity transition continues; still elite recruitment. Expect a rebound toward the UEL places.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 54.0 in league · 6th of 20
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 9th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 AS RomaSerie A
  • WH1-0 BolognaSerie A
  • WA1-0 Hapoel Tel AvivUECL
  • WH2-1 SassuoloSerie A
  • DH0-0 Hapoel Tel AvivUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,2,3,1,3
Key players Marco Carnesecchi 馃嚠馃嚬 85.4, Giorgio Scalvini 馃嚠馃嚬 73.9, Charles De Ketelaere 馃嚙馃嚜 71.1, Nicola Zalewski 馃嚨馃嚤 69.3, 脡derson 馃嚙馃嚪 69.1
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 15 路 馃嚟馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
5108th08-23 v Sassuolo: +1.008-31 v Bologna: +1.409-05 v AS Roma: -2.0

Cagliari (8th)

Survival specialists with a flair for drama: their final-day 2-1 win at Milan knocked the Rossoneri out of the top 4. Unipol Domus small and hot. Sardinia travel = mild away tax for visitors. Lower-mid expectation, dangerous late season.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 40.7 in league · 16th of 20
Seasons 2023: 17th | 2024: 16th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 8th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 LecceSerie A
  • LH0-1 InterSerie A
  • WA1-0 ParmaSerie A
  • WA2-1 AC MilanSerie A
  • WH2-1 TorinoSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 3,3,1,1,1
Key players Yerry Mina 馃嚚馃嚧 72.5, Elia Caprile 馃嚠馃嚬 69.7🔥, Roberto Gagliardini 馃嚠馃嚬 68.3, Gennaro Borrelli 馃嚠馃嚬 68.2, Adam Obert 馃嚫馃嚢 67.8
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 18 路 馃嚙馃嚞 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
3129th08-22 v Parma: +2.108-30 v Inter: -3.709-07 v Lecce: +2.6

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.