Daily Football Model

Serie A DNA · 2026-10-02

← Today's predictions Intel Unpredictable

🇮🇹 Serie A

The Tempest — chaos very high & fortress very low

Personality twin: UEFA Nations League (distance 9) · polar opposite: 🇮🇸 Besta deild

Cynical disruptor 21%Patient but blunt 21%Fast and clean 15%Frugal finishers 12%strength +0.47σ

trait	this league
Draws	25%	p55
Both score	47%	p22
Tempo	2.48 goals/game	p17
Fortress	+4pp home	p6
Chaos	97/100	p97
Late drama	23% of goals 76'+	p35
Comebacks	14% won from behind	p15
Model grip	68% favourites landed (n=31)	p92

Each trait is measured over the league's last two seasons (430 games) and shown as a percentile against every league we cover; the radar is those eight percentiles. Late drama and comebacks come from goal-by-minute events and are blank where the feed carries none. Model grip is our own favourite hit rate on graded days, so it needs 15 graded fixtures before it shows. Descriptive only.