Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚝馃嚪 Ligue 1

league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Lille (4th) v Estac Troyes (9th)

1 70%
X 21%
2 9%
Prediction: Lille to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 55%↓0.7
xG overlay · Lille better on chances than on results by 0.19 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Lille clear favourites at 70%, with Estac Troyes at 9% and the draw at 21%. Lille have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 4 conceded). Watch Olivier Giroud 馃嚝馃嚪 and Hakon Haraldsson 馃嚠馃嚫 for Lille, and Tawfik Bentayeb 馃嚥馃嚘 and Mateo Mendy for Estac Troyes.

Lille: 3rd in 25/26 (13-game unbeaten run; 7-1 at Lorient) = UCL again. · Estac Troyes: Ligue 2 champions 25/26, promoted back; City Football Group network club.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Lille (4th)

FOREIGN CORE 66%

3rd in 25/26 (13-game unbeaten run; 7-1 at Lorient) = UCL again. Pierre-Mauroy 50k. Elite trading club (David-era sales funded reloads). Consistent top-4 operator; group-stage credible.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 56.7 in league · 6th of 17
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 4th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 Real BetisUCL
  • WA1-0 ToulouseLigue 1
  • DH2-2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • WA2-0 AngersLigue 1
  • LH0-2 AuxerreLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,2,2,4,1
Key players Berke 脰zer 馃嚬馃嚪 81.2, Benjamin Andr茅 馃嚝馃嚪 72.5, Alexsandro Ribeiro 馃嚙馃嚪 72.2, Tiago Santos 馃嚨馃嚬 70.4, Nabil Bentaleb 馃嚛馃嚳 70.2
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 12 路 馃嚙馃嚜 6 路 馃嚨馃嚬 4 路 馃嚞馃嚦 2 路 馃嚛馃嚳 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
144th08-23 v Angers: +2.608-28 v Paris Saint Germain: -0.109-03 v Toulouse: +2.0

Estac Troyes (9th)

Ligue 2 champions 25/26, promoted back; City Football Group network club. Stade de l'Aube compact. CFG loans boost quality but churn hurts cohesion; survival battle expected.

Seasons 2026 so far: 9th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • WA2-1 LorientLigue 1
  • DH0-0 Paris FCLigue 1
  • LA0-1 GrenobleLigue 2
  • WH4-0 LavalLigue 2
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,0,3,8
Key players Antoine Mille 馃嚝馃嚪 75.9, Anis Ouzenadji 馃嚝馃嚪 68.1, Adrien Monfray 馃嚝馃嚪 65.1, Kandet Diawara 馃嚝馃嚪 62.0, Merwan Ifnaoui 馃嚝馃嚪 61.4
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 23 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 馃嚢馃嚥 1 路 馃嚙馃嚝 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚥馃嚤 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
399th08-22 v Paris FC: -0.208-29 v Lorient: +2.209-06 v Strasbourg: -5.0
league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Le Mans (13th) v Lens (11th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: LENS
1 28%
X 26%
2 46%
Prediction: Lens to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 60%
Squad overlay · Lens stronger by 0.29, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Lens narrow favourites at 46%, with Le Mans at 28% and the draw at 26%. Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Lens the stronger. Watch Florian Sotoca 馃嚝馃嚪 and Odsonne Edouard for Lens.

Le Mans: Promoted 2nd from Ligue 2 - back in the top flight after 15+ years away, post-bankruptcy rebuild complete. · Lens: 25/26 runners-up: 8-game winning run, took the title race to mid-May before PSG sealed it in the head-to-head.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Le Mans (13th)

Promoted 2nd from Ligue 2 - back in the top flight after 15+ years away, post-bankruptcy rebuild complete. MMArena modern but quiet. Feel-good story, thin squad; classic relegation favourite.

Squad quality 29.7 in league · 17th of 17
Seasons 2026 so far: 13th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 NiceLigue 1
  • LA2-3 RennesLigue 1
  • DH2-2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • WA2-0 BastiaLigue 2
  • DH1-1 ReimsLigue 2
Over 2.5 last 5 YYN match totals 4,5,2
Key players Lucas Buades 65.1, Lucas Calodat 馃嚝馃嚪 63.9, Louis Mafouta 63.4, Djibril Sidib茅 馃嚝馃嚪 62.7, Adil Bourabaa 61.6
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 23 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚦 1
Season pulse season 2026
51413th08-22 v Stade Brestois 29: -0.508-30 v Rennes: -1.809-05 v Nice: +0.0

Lens (11th)

25/26 runners-up: 8-game winning run, took the title race to mid-May before PSG sealed it in the head-to-head. Bollaert-Delelis = best atmosphere in France. Back in the UCL; sustaining 2nd while selling stars is the eternal Lens problem.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 60.1 in league · 5th of 17
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 11th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 Slavia PrahaUCL
  • LH0-1 LorientLigue 1
  • LA1-2 StrasbourgLigue 1
  • WH5-2 AuxerreLigue 1
  • WA4-0 LyonLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,4,7,3,1
Key players Florian Thauvin 馃嚝馃嚪 81.5, Ismaelo Ganiou 馃嚝馃嚪 78.6, Samson Baidoo 馃嚘馃嚬 71.9, Saud Abdulhamid 馃嚫馃嚘 70.8, Andrija Bulatovic 68.7
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 27 路 馃嚥馃嚤 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
21010th08-22 v Auxerre: +5.308-29 v Strasbourg: -1.409-05 v Lorient: -2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Stade Brestois 29 (7th) v Paris Saint Germain (14th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: PARIS SAINT GERMAIN↑ Paris Saint Germain TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +29
1 18%
X 25%
2 57%
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 63%↑3.6
Squad overlay · Paris Saint Germain stronger by 0.43, shifted the price by up to 2.4 pts
xG overlay · Stade Brestois 29 better on chances than on results by 0.06 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Paris Saint Germain clear favourites at 57%, with Stade Brestois 29 at 18% and the draw at 25%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Paris Saint Germain the stronger. Watch Ludovic Ajorque 馃嚝馃嚪 and Romain Del Castillo 馃嚝馃嚪 for Stade Brestois 29, and Ousmane Dembele and Vitinha 馃嚨馃嚬 for Paris Saint Germain.

Stade Brestois 29: Post-UCL-fairytale normalisation: mid-table 25/26. · Paris Saint Germain: Serial champions: 14th title (5 straight) and retained the UCL, beating Arsenal on pens in Budapest; Dembele won the Ballon d'Or.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Stade Brestois 29 (7th)

Post-UCL-fairytale normalisation: mid-table 25/26. Francis-Le Ble tiny, redevelopment pending. Smart low-budget operation; 9th-14th range, tough at home in the wind and rain.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 42.3 in league · 12th of 17
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 9th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 7th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Le HavreLigue 1
  • DH2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • DA2-2 Le MansLigue 1
  • DH1-1 AngersLigue 1
  • LH1-2 StrasbourgLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,4,4,3
Key players Gautier Lloris 馃嚝馃嚪 72.0, Brendan Chardonnet 馃嚝馃嚪 70.3, Kamory Doumbia 馃嚥馃嚤 68.9, Romain Del Castillo 馃嚝馃嚪 67.5, Joris Chotard 馃嚝馃嚪 67.0
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 17 路 馃嚥馃嚤 3 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚞馃嚰 1
Season pulse season 2026
4137th08-22 v Le Mans: +0.508-29 v Toulouse: +0.809-05 v Le Havre: +2.0

Paris Saint Germain (14th)

strong away

Serial champions: 14th title (5 straight) and retained the UCL, beating Arsenal on pens in Budapest; Dembele won the Ballon d'Or. Parc des Princes. Luis Enrique dynasty at peak; domestic dominance near-total - motivation the only variable.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 86.7 in league · 1st of 17
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 14th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH6-1 Slovan BratislavaUCL
  • LH1-2 MonacoLigue 1
  • DA2-2 LilleLigue 1
  • DA2-2 RennesLigue 1
  • DH1-1 ArsenalUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,3,4,4,3
Key players Ousmane Demb茅l茅 馃嚝馃嚪 80.9, Nuno Mendes 馃嚨馃嚬 78.9, Vitinha 馃嚨馃嚬 78.5, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 馃嚞馃嚜 78.5, Ilya Zabarnyi 馃嚭馃嚘 77.1
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 12 路 馃嚨馃嚬 4 路 馃嚜馃嚫 3 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
61414th08-23 v Rennes: +0.408-28 v Lille: +0.109-04 v Monaco: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.