Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚝馃嚪 Ligue 1

league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Strasbourg (6th) v Monaco (1st)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↓ Strasbourg TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -52↓ Monaco TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -28
1 39%
X 27%
2 35%
Prediction: Strasbourg to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 68%
Squad overlay · Monaco stronger by 0.10, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
xG overlay · Monaco better on chances than on results by 0.35 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Strasbourg the marginal call at 39%, with Monaco at 35% and the draw at 27%. Strasbourg have won 4 of their last five (15 scored, 12 conceded). Monaco arrive on a 3-game winning run (9 scored, 7 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 69%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 68%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Diego Moreira 馃嚨馃嚬 and Julio Enciso 馃嚨馃嚲 for Strasbourg, and Maghnes Akliouche 馃嚝馃嚪 and Folarin Balogun 馃嚭馃嚫 for Monaco.

Strasbourg: Chelsea/BlueCo-network club; young squad finished upper-mid, closing 25/26 with a 5-4 win over Monaco and a 5-0 over Angers. · Monaco: Underwhelming 7th = only the Conference League; lost a 5-4 thriller at Strasbourg on the final day, and home crowds hit 4,810.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Strasbourg (6th)

Chelsea/BlueCo-network club; young squad finished upper-mid, closing 25/26 with a 5-4 win over Monaco and a 5-0 over Angers. Meinau expansion ongoing, superb atmosphere. Talent-rich, experience-light; Europe-race dark horse.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 54.6 in league · 7th of 17
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 6th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA6-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • WH2-1 LensLigue 1
  • LA0-4 MarseilleLigue 1
  • WH5-4 MonacoLigue 1
  • WA2-1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,9,4,3,8
Key players Gessime Yassine 馃嚝馃嚪 77.5, Martial Godo 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 72.0, Jeyland Mitchell 馃嚚馃嚪 71.4, Filip J酶rgensen 71.1, Giovanni Reyna 馃嚭馃嚫 70.7
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 15 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 4 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚚馃嚠 3 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
6186th08-21 v Marseille: -5.808-29 v Lens: +1.409-06 v Estac Troyes: +5.0

Monaco (1st)

FOREIGN CORE 68%

Underwhelming 7th = only the Conference League; lost a 5-4 thriller at Strasbourg on the final day, and home crowds hit 4,810. Stade Louis II always empty-ish - weakest home edge among big clubs. Talent factory; bounce-back candidate.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 64.9 in league · 2nd of 17
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 1st (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • WH2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • WH4-1 Gornik ZabrzeUECL
  • WA1-0 Le HavreLigue 1
  • WA3-2 Gornik ZabrzeUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 1,9,1,2,3
Key players Lamine Camara 馃嚫馃嚦 78.5, Eric Dier 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 75.9, Vanderson 馃嚙馃嚪 72.2, Nazinho 72.0, Sadibou San茅 馃嚫馃嚦 70.5
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 12 路 馃嚙馃嚜 4 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
161st08-23 v Le Havre: +2.408-30 v Marseille: +3.109-04 v Paris Saint Germain: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Auxerre (18th) v Nice (15th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 40%
X 27%
2 33%
Prediction: Auxerre to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%↓1.0
Squad overlay · Nice stronger by 0.08, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
xG overlay · Nice better on chances than on results by 0.29 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Auxerre the marginal call at 40%, with Nice at 33% and the draw at 27%. Auxerre have lost 3 straight (8 scored, 12 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Lassine Sinayoko 馃嚥馃嚤 and Gaetan Perrin 馃嚝馃嚪 for Auxerre, and Terem Moffi 馃嚦馃嚞 and Jonathan Clauss 馃嚝馃嚪 for Nice.

Auxerre: Historic Guy Roux club; consolidated lower mid-table in 25/26. · Nice: Rough 25/26: a 6-game losing streak, bottom-half drift, Ineos attention on other projects.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Auxerre (18th)

Historic Guy Roux club; consolidated lower mid-table in 25/26. Abbe-Deschamps old-school. Yo-yo era hopefully over; defensive base decent. 12th-16th expectation.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 31.0 in league · 15th of 17
Seasons 2024: 11th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 18th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 LyonLigue 1
  • LH1-3 AngersLigue 1
  • LA2-5 LensLigue 1
  • WA2-0 LilleLigue 1
  • WH2-1 NiceLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,7,4,4
Key players Bryan Okoh 馃嚚馃嚟 72.4, K茅vin Danois 馃嚝馃嚪 68.2, Marvin Senaya 馃嚝馃嚪 66.5, Sinaly Diomand茅 馃嚚馃嚠 64.3, Romain Faivre 馃嚝馃嚪 63.7
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 15 路 馃嚞馃嚟 4 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
171818th08-22 v Lens: -5.308-29 v Angers: -3.209-04 v Lyon: -3.0

Nice (15th)

draw merchants

Rough 25/26: a 6-game losing streak, bottom-half drift, Ineos attention on other projects. Allianz Riviera echoes. Squad talent above results; new-coach bounce potential; 6th-10th range.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 39.5 in league · 13th of 17
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 15th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Le MansLigue 1
  • LA0-3 Paris FCLigue 1
  • DH0-0 LorientLigue 1
  • WH4-1 Saint EtienneLigue 1
  • DA0-0 Saint EtienneLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 0,5,0,3,2
Key players Sofiane Diop 馃嚝馃嚪 68.8, Gauthier Hein 馃嚝馃嚪 68.1, Jonathan Clauss 馃嚝馃嚪 67.6, Antoine Mendy 馃嚝馃嚪 66.7, Elye Wahi 馃嚝馃嚪 66.4
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 20 路 馃嚛馃嚳 3 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
71715th08-22 v Lorient: +0.008-30 v Paris FC: -5.109-05 v Le Mans: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Le Havre (16th) v Angers (12th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 45%
X 26%
2 29%
Prediction: Le Havre to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 33%
Squad overlay · Angers stronger by 0.07, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
xG overlay · Angers better on chances than on results by 0.24 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Le Havre narrow favourites at 45%, with Angers at 29% and the draw at 26%. The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 40%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 33%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Yassine Kechta 馃嚥馃嚘 and Gautier Lloris 馃嚝馃嚪 for Le Havre, and Himad Abdelli 馃嚛馃嚳 and Yahia Fofana 馃嚝馃嚪 for Angers.

Le Havre: France's oldest club, survived again on a shoestring. · Angers: Perennial small-budget survivors; stayed up again in 25/26 despite a 5-0 hiding at Strasbourg.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Le Havre (16th)

draw merchants

France's oldest club, survived again on a shoestring. Stade Oceane, Channel-coast wind. Famed academy (Mbappe-adjacent lineage) sells everything. Relegation-market regular; home draws are their currency.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 29.9 in league · 16th of 17
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2024: 16th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 16th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • DA1-1 LyonLigue 1
  • LH0-1 MonacoLigue 1
  • WA2-0 LorientLigue 1
  • LH0-1 MarseilleLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 1,2,1,2,3
Key players Lionel M'Pasi 馃嚚馃嚛 76.7, Rassoul Ndiaye 馃嚫馃嚦 69.1, Sofiane Boufal 馃嚥馃嚘 64.3, Ahmed Touba 馃嚛馃嚳 63.7, Loic N茅go 馃嚟馃嚭 62.8
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 20 路 馃嚫馃嚦 5 路 馃嚥馃嚘 3 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 馃嚬馃嚳 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
131616th08-23 v Monaco: -2.408-29 v Lyon: -0.509-05 v Stade Brestois 29: -2.0

Angers (12th)

Perennial small-budget survivors; stayed up again in 25/26 despite a 5-0 hiding at Strasbourg. Raymond Kopa Stadium. Lowest wage bills in L1; unders profile, home scraps, annual relegation flirtation.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 37.0 in league · 14th of 17
Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 12th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 RennesLigue 1
  • WA3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • LH0-2 LilleLigue 1
  • DA1-1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • DH1-1 StrasbourgLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,2,2,4,3
Key players Branco van den Boomen 馃嚦馃嚤 73.9, Anthony Lopes 馃嚨馃嚬 73.3🔥, Lilian Raolisoa 馃嚝馃嚪 68.6, Carlens Arcus 馃嚟馃嚬 66.3, Amine El Ouazzani 馃嚥馃嚘 65.8
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 26 路 馃嚛馃嚳 3 路 馃嚞馃嚘 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚟馃嚬 1 路 馃嚙馃嚝 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
71512th08-23 v Lille: -2.608-29 v Auxerre: +3.209-06 v Rennes: -2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Lorient (8th) v Toulouse (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY↓ Toulouse TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -19
1 44%
X 26%
2 30%
Prediction: Lorient to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 50%↓2.0
Squad overlay · Toulouse stronger by 0.05, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
xG overlay · Toulouse better on chances than on results by 0.34 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Lorient narrow favourites at 44%, with Toulouse at 30% and the draw at 26%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Pablo Pagis 馃嚝馃嚪 and Yvon Mvogo 馃嚚馃嚟 for Lorient, and Charlie Cresswell 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Guillaume Restes 馃嚝馃嚪 for Toulouse.

Lorient: Survived 25/26 despite conceding 7 at home to Lille; famously won 3-1 at Monaco in Jan. · Toulouse: Steady mid-table again; lost a 9-goal thriller to PSG early season.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Lorient (8th)

Survived 25/26 despite conceding 7 at home to Lille; famously won 3-1 at Monaco in Jan. Moustoir tight, Brittany weather. Yo-yo profile; goals-against column decides their season again.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 43.0 in league · 11th of 17
Seasons 2023: 17th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 8th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 LensLigue 1
  • LH1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • DA0-0 NiceLigue 1
  • LH0-2 Le HavreLigue 1
  • WA4-0 MetzLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 4,2,0,3,1
Key players Montassar Talbi 馃嚬馃嚦 69.2, Arthur Avom Ebong 68.8, Panos Katseris 馃嚞馃嚪 68.1, Noah Cadiou 馃嚝馃嚪 65.6, Yvon Mvogo 馃嚚馃嚟 64.4
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 12 路 馃嚫馃嚦 5 路 馃嚚馃嚠 3 路 馃嚚馃嚥 2 路 馃嚚馃嚛 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
6168th08-22 v Nice: -0.008-29 v Estac Troyes: -2.209-05 v Lens: +2.0

Toulouse (17th)

Steady mid-table again; lost a 9-goal thriller to PSG early season. Stadium municipal. Data-led recruitment (RedBird-style ownership). 9th-13th projection; solid home side.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 47.8 in league · 10th of 17
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 17th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 LilleLigue 1
  • DA2-2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
  • LH0-2 LyonLigue 1
  • WH2-1 LyonLigue 1
  • WA2-1 StrasbourgLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 3,3,2,4,1
Key players Cristian C谩sseres Jr. 82.7, Aron D酶nnum 馃嚦馃嚧 70.5, Rasmus Nicolaisen 馃嚛馃嚢 69.5, Thomas J酶rgensen 馃嚛馃嚢 69.1, Yann Gboho 馃嚝馃嚪 66.8
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 20 路 馃嚦馃嚧 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
161717th08-22 v Lyon: -1.808-29 v Stade Brestois 29: -0.809-03 v Lille: -2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 41orderly

Paris FC (3rd) v Lyon (2nd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ Paris FC TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +53
1 37%
X 27%
2 37%
Prediction: Lyon to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%↓0.6
Squad overlay · Lyon stronger by 0.08, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
xG overlay · Lyon better on chances than on results by 0.14 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Lyon the marginal call at 37%, with Paris FC at 37% and the draw at 27%. Paris FC have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 5 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Moses Simon 馃嚦馃嚞 and Ilan Kebbal 馃嚛馃嚳 for Paris FC, and Corentin Tolisso 馃嚝馃嚪 and Malick Fofana 馃嚙馃嚜 for Lyon.

Paris FC: Survived their first top-flight season (promoted 2025, Arnault-family backed). · Lyon: 4th = back in the Champions League, a real recovery after the DNCG financial scare era.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Paris FC (3rd)

Survived their first top-flight season (promoted 2025, Arnault-family backed). Now the capital's second club sharing the Jean-Bouin/Chorus era plans. Money incoming each window; lower-mid expectation with upside if spending lands.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 51.5 in league · 8th of 17
Seasons 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 3rd (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 MarseilleLigue 1
  • WH3-0 NiceLigue 1
  • DA0-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
  • WH2-1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • LA1-2 RennesLigue 1
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,3,0,3,5
Key players Lassine Sinayoko 馃嚥馃嚤 78.4, Ilan Kebbal 馃嚛馃嚳 74.2, Pablo Pagis 馃嚝馃嚪 71.3, Ot谩vio 馃嚙馃嚪 70.7, Pierre Lees Melou 70.0
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 19 路 馃嚠馃嚬 3 路 馃嚥馃嚤 2 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
2133rd08-22 v Estac Troyes: +0.208-30 v Nice: +5.109-06 v Marseille: +2.0

Lyon (2nd)

FOREIGN CORE 74%

4th = back in the Champions League, a real recovery after the DNCG financial scare era. Groupama Stadium 59k. Textor-era turbulence easing. Talented young core; UCL load vs squad depth the 26/27 question.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 60.3 in league · 4th of 17
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 2nd (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • DH1-1 Le HavreLigue 1
  • LH1-2 Fenerbah莽eUCL
  • WA2-0 ToulouseLigue 1
  • DA1-1 Fenerbah莽eUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,4,2,2,4
Key players Moussa Niakhat茅 馃嚫馃嚦 77.9, Corentin Tolisso 馃嚝馃嚪 75.5, Zachary Athekame 馃嚚馃嚟 72.9, Ernest Nuamah 馃嚞馃嚟 71.6, Tyler Morton 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 67.5
Nationalities 馃嚝馃嚪 9 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 3 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚳 2 路 +14 more
Season pulse season 2026
242nd08-22 v Toulouse: +1.808-29 v Le Havre: +0.509-04 v Auxerre: +3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.