Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 Premier League

league draws 28% · chaos 56lively

Coventry (20th) v Brighton (10th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ Coventry TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +21
1 32%
X 24%
2 44%
Prediction: Brighton to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%
Match preview

The model makes Brighton narrow favourites at 44%, with Coventry at 32% and the draw at 24%. Coventry have lost 3 straight (0 scored, 5 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Brighton also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Haji Wright 馃嚭馃嚫 and Jack Rudoni 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Coventry, and Kaoru Mitoma 馃嚡馃嚨 and Georginio Rutter 馃嚝馃嚪 for Brighton.

Coventry: Promoted as a Frank Lampard-led force, back in the top flight for the first time since 2001. · Brighton: Hurzeler's young pressing side took 8th and the Conference League spot in 25/26.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Coventry (20th)

Promoted as a Frank Lampard-led force, back in the top flight for the first time since 2001. CBS Arena rocking. Momentum club with an identity, but PL-level defence unproven; classic promoted-side fade risk after Christmas.

Squad quality 30.6 in league · 20th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 20th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
  • LH0-1 Hull CityPremier League
  • WA4-2 PlymouthEFL Cup
  • LA0-3 ArsenalPremier League
  • WA4-0 WatfordChampionship
Over 2.5 last 5 YNN match totals 3,1,1
Key players Matt Grimes 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 78.4, Bobby Thomas 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 76.4, Carl Rushworth 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 75.0, Jack Rudoni 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 73.3, Taiwo Awoniyi 馃嚦馃嚞 73.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 20 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
172020th08-21 v Arsenal: -4.808-29 v Hull City: -2.009-05 v Manchester City: -2.0

Brighton (10th)

Hurzeler's young pressing side took 8th and the Conference League spot in 25/26. Amex, data-led recruitment, constant star sales. UECL Thursdays will test depth; top-8 ceiling, volatile week to week.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 51.8 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 10th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 LeedsPremier League
  • LA3-4 ChelseaPremier League
  • WH4-0 TromsoUECL
  • WH4-0 Aston VillaPremier League
  • DA0-0 TromsoUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 1,3,4,7,2
Key players Luka Vu拧kovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 84.9, Maxim De Cuyper 馃嚙馃嚜 80.9, Lewis Dunk 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 79.9, Olivier Boscagli 馃嚝馃嚪 79.8, Mats Wieffer 馃嚦馃嚤 79.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 11 路 馃嚦馃嚤 4 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 2 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
11010th08-23 v Aston Villa: +6.008-30 v Chelsea: -2.709-05 v Leeds: +0.0
league draws 28% · chaos 56lively

Manchester United (11th) v Manchester City (2nd)

↓ Manchester City TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -24
1 32%
X 25%
2 44%
Prediction: Manchester City to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 60%
xG overlay · Manchester United better on chances than on results by 0.35 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Manchester City narrow favourites at 44%, with Manchester United at 32% and the draw at 25%. Manchester United have won 3 of their last five (13 scored, 8 conceded). Manchester City arrive on a 3-game winning run (9 scored, 5 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 63%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. Watch Bruno Fernandes 馃嚨馃嚬 and Matheus Cunha 馃嚙馃嚪 for Manchester United, and Erling Haaland 馃嚦馃嚧 and Antoine Semenyo 馃嚞馃嚟 for Manchester City.

Manchester United: Revival: 3rd place and UCL return, with Michael Carrick taking over in Jan 2026; Bruno Fernandes was player of the season with a record 21 assists. · Manchester City: End of an era: Guardiola left after a decade (2nd, 78pts, domestic cup double); Enzo Maresca in on a 3-year deal.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Manchester United (11th)

strong at home

Revival: 3rd place and UCL return, with Michael Carrick taking over in Jan 2026; Bruno Fernandes was player of the season with a record 21 assists. Old Trafford rebuild politics ongoing. Momentum real; UCL Wednesdays a new strain.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 70.4 in league · 3rd of 20
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 15th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 11th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-0 Sabah FAUCL
  • DA2-2 EvertonPremier League
  • WH5-2 IpswichPremier League
  • LA0-2 Hull CityPremier League
  • WA3-0 BrightonPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,3,2,7,4
Key players Bruno Fernandes 馃嚨馃嚬 90.1, Karl Darlow 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 85.8, Casemiro 馃嚙馃嚪 84.8, Youri Tielemans 馃嚙馃嚜 83.3, Senne Lammens 馃嚙馃嚜 83.3
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 11 路 馃嚦馃嚤 3 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚚馃嚥 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
101811th08-22 v Hull City: -2.708-30 v Ipswich: +5.309-06 v Everton: +0.0

Manchester City (2nd)

End of an era: Guardiola left after a decade (2nd, 78pts, domestic cup double); Enzo Maresca in on a 3-year deal. Haaland won a third Golden Boot (27). Semenyo added in Jan. Transition season: still elite, but first post-Pep year = uncertainty.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 83.3 in league · 1st of 20
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 2nd (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 FC PortoUCL
  • WH1-0 CoventryPremier League
  • WA4-1 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • WH2-1 BournemouthPremier League
  • LH1-2 Aston VillaPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,3,3,5,1
Key players Erling Haaland 馃嚦馃嚧 89.4, Marc Gu茅hi 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 89.1, Rayan Cherki 馃嚝馃嚪 87.8, J茅r茅my Doku 馃嚙馃嚜 87.7, Elliot Anderson 87.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 12 路 馃嚨馃嚬 3 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
192nd08-23 v Bournemouth: +2.908-28 v Crystal Palace: +4.409-05 v Coventry: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.