Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃弳 EFL Cup

league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Everton v Wolves

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH⚡ SQUAD GAP: EVERTON
1 41%
X 22%
2 37%
Prediction: Everton to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 63%
Match preview

The model makes Everton the marginal call at 41%, with Wolves at 37% and the draw at 22%. Wolves have won 4 of their last five (13 scored, 4 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 64%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Everton the stronger. Watch Jordan Pickford 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Iliman Ndiaye 馃嚫馃嚦 for Everton, and Jorgen Strand Larsen 馃嚦馃嚧 and Jose Sa for Wolves.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Everton

Liverpool. Moyes stabilised them at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium (moved 2025). Mid-table 25/26, hard to beat, low-scoring. Set-piece strong. New-stadium bounce mostly banked; upside limited without a reliable striker.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 77.7 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 TottenhamPremier League
  • DH2-2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
  • DA1-1 BournemouthPremier League
  • WA4-0 PrestonEFL Cup
  • WH2-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,2,2,2,4
Key players James Tarkowski 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 88.0, James Garner 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 81.7, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 81.3, Jarrad Branthwaite 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 80.5, Hayden Hackney 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 80.5
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 11 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚭馃嚘 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
3107th08-22 v Crystal Palace: +2.608-29 v Bournemouth: +0.009-06 v Manchester United: +0.009-12 v Tottenham: +0.0

Wolves

Wolverhampton. Relegated after a long PL stay; squad fire-sale risk defines their summer. Molineux. Parachute payments plus retained quality = automatic-promotion contender, but morale and turnover make them volatile.

Style Pass-dominant from 2017
Squad quality 61.3 all Europe · Championship
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
  • DA2-2 BirminghamChampionship
  • LA2-4 West HamChampionship
  • WH4-1 Stoke CityChampionship
  • WA2-0 Sheffield WednesdayEFL Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 7,1,4,3,2
Key players Fer L贸pez 馃嚜馃嚫 73.1, Ra煤l Jim茅nez 馃嚥馃嚱 70.5, Jos茅 S谩 馃嚨馃嚬 69.8, Jordan James 65.3, L. Krej膷铆 馃嚚馃嚳 64.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 4 路 馃嚨馃嚬 3 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
2158th08-14 v Blackburn: +0.608-22 v Preston: +3.408-29 v Stoke City: +4.909-01 v West Ham: -3.009-06 v Birmingham: +0.009-13 v Sheffield Utd: +2.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Fleetwood Town v Sheffield Utd

⚡ SQUAD GAP: SHEFFIELD UTD
1 16%
X 20%
2 64%
Prediction: Sheffield Utd to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 64%
Match preview

The model makes Sheffield Utd clear favourites at 64%, with Fleetwood Town at 16% and the draw at 20%. Fleetwood Town have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 4 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 64%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 64%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Sheffield Utd the stronger. Watch Michael Cooper 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Tyrese Campbell 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Sheffield Utd.

Fleetwood Town: Small Lancashire fishing-port club, a remarkable modern rise from non-league to the EFL under one owner; Highbury. · Sheffield Utd: Flat 13th after the 24/25 playoff-final heartbreak, though they played final-day spoiler against Derby.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Fleetwood Town

Small Lancashire fishing-port club, a remarkable modern rise from non-league to the EFL under one owner; Highbury. Small crowds, coastal setting.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 35.6 all Europe · League Two
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • WH2-0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
  • DH1-1 OldhamLeague Two
  • DA2-2 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • WH4-0 ShrewsburyEFL Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,4,1,1,4
Key players Ronan Coughlan 馃嚠馃嚜 48.3, Mark Helm 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 47.4, Harrison Neal 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 41.7, Shaun Rooney 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 39.4, Aaron Loupalo-Bi 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 39.3
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 13 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 1 路 馃嚥馃嚫 1
Season pulse season 2026
6116th08-15 v Chesterfield: +2.008-22 v Gillingham: +0.008-29 v Grimsby: +0.009-01 v Oldham: +0.009-05 v Shrewsbury: +3.009-12 v Newport County: +0.0

Sheffield Utd

Flat 13th after the 24/25 playoff-final heartbreak, though they played final-day spoiler against Derby. Bramall Lane. Squad aging, ownership investment questions; bounce-back candidate if the window lands.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 59.2 all Europe · Championship
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 WolvesChampionship
  • WA2-1 BlackburnChampionship
  • LH1-3 NorwichChampionship
  • WH3-2 BoltonChampionship
  • DA2-2 CardiffChampionship
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,3,7,3,3
Key players Japhet Tanganga 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 69.5, Sydie Peck 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 69.2, Femi Seriki 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 66.9, Patrick Bamford 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 63.3, Sam McCallum 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 62.9
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 10 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚤馃嚬 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
101514th08-15 v Birmingham: -0.108-22 v Swansea: +0.608-29 v Cardiff: +0.009-01 v Bolton: +2.009-05 v Norwich: -3.009-08 v Blackburn: +2.009-13 v Wolves: -2.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Coventry v Aston Villa

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 37%
X 22%
2 41%
Prediction: Aston Villa to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
Match preview

The model makes Aston Villa the marginal call at 41%, with Coventry at 37% and the draw at 22%. Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Haji Wright 馃嚭馃嚫 and Jack Rudoni 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Coventry, and Morgan Rogers 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Ollie Watkins 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Aston Villa.

Coventry: Promoted as a Frank Lampard-led force, back in the top flight for the first time since 2001.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Coventry

Promoted as a Frank Lampard-led force, back in the top flight for the first time since 2001. CBS Arena rocking. Momentum club with an identity, but PL-level defence unproven; classic promoted-side fade risk after Christmas.

Squad quality 69.4 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-5 BrightonPremier League
  • LA0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
  • LH0-1 Hull CityPremier League
  • WA4-2 PlymouthEFL Cup
  • LA0-3 ArsenalPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 5,1,3,1,6
Key players Matt Grimes 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 76.9, Bobby Thomas 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 74.1, Jack Rudoni 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 72.8, Carl Rushworth 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 71.8, Brandon Thomas-Asante 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 71.4
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 16 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
172020th08-21 v Arsenal: -4.808-29 v Hull City: -2.009-05 v Manchester City: -2.009-13 v Brighton: -6.0

Aston Villa

Birmingham. Emery's Villa finished 4th in 25/26 with a league-best 8-game winning run and won at the Etihad on Pep's farewell. Back in the UCL. Villa Park redevelopment ongoing. Deep squad, strong home form; European load management is the swing factor.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 71.7 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • WA3-2 Club Brugge KVUCL
  • DA0-0 Hull CityPremier League
  • LH0-1 ArsenalPremier League
  • LA0-4 BrightonPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,3,2,3,4
Key players John McGinn 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 75.6, Amadou Onana 馃嚙馃嚜 75.4, Zion Suzuki 馃嚡馃嚨 74.2, Ross Barkley 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 73.7, Nicolas Jackson 馃嚫馃嚦 73.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 8 路 馃嚦馃嚤 4 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
172019th08-23 v Brighton: -6.008-31 v Arsenal: -2.409-05 v Hull City: +0.009-12 v Nottingham Forest: -2.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Manchester United v Brighton

1 45%
X 22%
2 34%
Prediction: Manchester United to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 67%
Match preview

The model makes Manchester United narrow favourites at 45%, with Brighton at 34% and the draw at 22%. Brighton have won 3 of their last five (14 scored, 6 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 67%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 67%. Watch Bruno Fernandes 馃嚨馃嚬 and Matheus Cunha 馃嚙馃嚪 for Manchester United, and Kaoru Mitoma 馃嚡馃嚨 and Georginio Rutter 馃嚝馃嚪 for Brighton.

Manchester United: Revival: 3rd place and UCL return, with Michael Carrick taking over in Jan 2026; Bruno Fernandes was player of the season with a record 21 assists. · Brighton: Hurzeler's young pressing side took 8th and the Conference League spot in 25/26.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Manchester United

Revival: 3rd place and UCL return, with Michael Carrick taking over in Jan 2026; Bruno Fernandes was player of the season with a record 21 assists. Old Trafford rebuild politics ongoing. Momentum real; UCL Wednesdays a new strain.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 80.9 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
  • WH4-0 Sabah FAUCL
  • DA2-2 EvertonPremier League
  • WH5-2 IpswichPremier League
  • LA0-2 Hull CityPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,3,2,4,3
Key players Bruno Fernandes 馃嚨馃嚬 91.1, Karl Darlow 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 85.1, Casemiro 馃嚙馃嚪 84.6, Youri Tielemans 馃嚙馃嚜 82.8, Kobbie Mainoo 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 82.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 6 路 馃嚚馃嚥 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
101813th08-22 v Hull City: -2.708-30 v Ipswich: +5.309-06 v Everton: +0.009-13 v Manchester City: -2.0

Brighton

Hurzeler's young pressing side took 8th and the Conference League spot in 25/26. Amex, data-led recruitment, constant star sales. UECL Thursdays will test depth; top-8 ceiling, volatile week to week.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 79.0 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA5-0 CoventryPremier League
  • DH1-1 LeedsPremier League
  • LA3-4 ChelseaPremier League
  • WH4-0 TromsoUECL
  • WH4-0 Aston VillaPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 6,6,2,3,3
Key players Luka Vu拧kovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 85.9, Pascal Gro脽 馃嚛馃嚜 83.2, Maxim De Cuyper 馃嚙馃嚜 82.7, Lewis Dunk 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 82.5, Bart Verbruggen 馃嚦馃嚤 82.0
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 10 路 馃嚦馃嚤 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 2 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
1124th08-23 v Aston Villa: +6.008-30 v Chelsea: -2.709-05 v Leeds: +0.009-13 v Coventry: +6.0