Daily Football Model

2026-09-15 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃弳 EFL Cup

league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Peterborough v Barnsley

1 42%
X 22%
2 36%
Prediction: Peterborough to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 64%
Match preview

The model makes Peterborough narrow favourites at 42%, with Barnsley at 36% and the draw at 22%. Peterborough have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 4 conceded). Barnsley have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 9 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 62%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 64%. Watch Harry Leonard 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Kyrell Lisbie 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Peterborough, and Davis Keillor-Dunn 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Adam Phillips 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Barnsley.

Peterborough: 18th despite 5-0 and 6-1 bursts - classic Posh volatility. · Barnsley: 15th - a down year at Oakwell for the usual playoff-adjacent overachievers.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Peterborough

18th despite 5-0 and 6-1 bursts - classic Posh volatility. London Road. Sold-and-rebuilt annually under Fry-era model; unpredictable, capable of a playoff swing either way.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 47.1 all Europe · League One
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
  • LH1-2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
  • DH0-0 StevenageLeague One
  • LA0-4 BlackpoolLeague One
  • WA5-1 WatfordEFL Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,1,1,6
Key players Alex Bass 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 70.6, Tom Lees 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 56.3, David Okagbue 馃嚠馃嚜 54.4, Benjamin Woods 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.3, Matthew Garbett 馃嚦馃嚳 49.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 9 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
132221st08-15 v Bradford: -3.008-22 v Mansfield Town: +2.108-29 v Blackpool: -5.509-01 v Stevenage: +0.009-05 v Sheffield Wednesday: -2.009-12 v Milton Keynes Dons: +0.0

Barnsley

15th - a down year at Oakwell for the usual playoff-adjacent overachievers. Develop-and-sell model intact. Mid-table projection with upside if recruitment hits.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 40.3 all Europe · League One
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 PlymouthLeague One
  • LH1-5 StevenageLeague One
  • WH2-1 BlackpoolLeague One
  • WA3-1 Leyton OrientLeague One
  • WH3-2 CreweEFL Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 5,1,5,2,5
Key players Luca Connell 馃嚠馃嚜 51.2, Marc Roberts 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 49.8, Jack Shepherd 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 47.8, Reyes Cleary 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 46.4, Vimal Yoganathan 馃嚤馃嚢 45.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 14 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃嚡馃嚥 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伄鬆仼鬆伈鬆伩 1 路 馃嚤馃嚢 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
51818th08-15 v Bromley: -2.008-22 v Doncaster: -0.508-29 v Leyton Orient: +3.009-02 v Blackpool: +1.809-05 v Stevenage: -5.009-12 v Plymouth: -4.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

West Ham v Fulham

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 42%
X 22%
2 36%
Prediction: West Ham to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%
Match preview

The model makes West Ham narrow favourites at 42%, with Fulham at 36% and the draw at 22%. West Ham are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 6 conceded). Fulham have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 5 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Jarrod Bowen 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Lucas Paqueta for West Ham, and Alex Iwobi 馃嚦馃嚞 and Emile Smith Rowe 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Fulham.

West Ham: Relegated after decades in the top flight - a seismic fall confirmed on the final day.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

West Ham

strong at home

Relegated after decades in the top flight - a seismic fall confirmed on the final day. Kept talisman Jarrod Bowen; sold Mateus Fernandes to Spurs for 85m GBP. London Stadium (62k) will smash Championship attendance records. Promotion favourite.

Squad quality 64.4 all Europe · Championship
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH6-0 WrexhamChampionship
  • WA3-2 BoltonChampionship
  • WH3-0 DerbyChampionship
  • WH4-2 WolvesChampionship
  • DA1-1 WatfordChampionship
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 0,4,4,4,5
Key players Konstantinos Mavropanos 馃嚞馃嚪 80.1, Jarrod Bowen 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 78.2, Manor Solomon 馃嚠馃嚤 75.1, Valent铆n Castellanos 馃嚘馃嚪 69.7, Jo毛l Piroe 馃嚦馃嚤 68.6
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 8 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚳 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
1191st08-16 v Burnley: -0.508-22 v Charlton: -0.808-29 v Watford: +0.009-01 v Wolves: +3.009-05 v Derby: +4.009-08 v Bolton: +2.009-11 v Wrexham: +6.0

Fulham

London. Comfortable mid-table 25/26 but entered summer 2026 without a confirmed manager after Silva's exit; squad ageing at key spots. Craven Cottage. Direction unclear = wide outcome range; lower-half drift is the base case until leadership settles.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 73.2 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 LiverpoolPremier League
  • LH2-3 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • LA0-1 SunderlandPremier League
  • WH3-0 AFC WimbledonEFL Cup
  • LH2-3 ChelseaPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 3,4,3,1,3
Key players Joachim Andersen 馃嚛馃嚢 79.9, Calvin Bassey 馃嚦馃嚞 78.0, Alex Iwobi 馃嚦馃嚞 76.3, Jorge Cuenca 馃嚜馃嚫 75.5, Joshua King 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 75.4
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 5 路 馃嚦馃嚞 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
131918th08-24 v Chelsea: -2.008-30 v Sunderland: -2.509-05 v Crystal Palace: -2.009-12 v Liverpool: +0.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Ipswich v Arsenal

⚡ SQUAD GAP: ARSENAL
1 30%
X 21%
2 49%
Prediction: Arsenal to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 54%
Match preview

The model makes Arsenal narrow favourites at 49%, with Ipswich at 30% and the draw at 21%. Arsenal have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 5 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Arsenal the stronger. Watch Sam Szmodics 馃嚠馃嚜 and Jacob Greaves 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 for Ipswich, and Bukayo Saka 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Viktor Gyokeres for Arsenal.

Ipswich: Bounced straight back after 24/25 relegation; second promotion-return cycle in three years.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Ipswich

Bounced straight back after 24/25 relegation; second promotion-return cycle in three years. Portman Road. Retained core plus PL parachute spending. More streetwise than last visit; survival realistic if McKenna-era structure holds.

Style Under siege from 2024
Squad quality 72.7 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • LH0-2 LiverpoolPremier League
  • LA2-5 Manchester UnitedPremier League
  • WH3-1 LeicesterEFL Cup
  • WH2-1 SunderlandPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,2,3,1,4
Key players Jack Clarke 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 78.0, Emersonn 馃嚙馃嚪 76.8, Exequiel Palacios 馃嚘馃嚪 75.9, Dara O'Shea 馃嚠馃嚜 75.8, Leif Davis 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 74.7
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 14 路 馃嚠馃嚜 4 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 馃嚠馃嚩 1
Season pulse season 2026
5149th08-22 v Sunderland: +2.508-30 v Manchester United: -5.309-04 v Liverpool: -3.009-12 v Crystal Palace: +2.0

Arsenal

London. 2025/26 champions (85pts) ending a 22-year wait under Arteta, then lost the UCL final to PSG on penalties. Raya 19 clean sheets; Saka, Gyokeres, Eze core. Elite defence, title favourites again; emotional hangover from Budapest the main risk.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 82.6 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 SunderlandPremier League
  • WA1-0 NapoliUCL
  • WH2-1 ChelseaPremier League
  • WA1-0 Aston VillaPremier League
  • WH3-0 CoventryPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 1,4,3,2,3
Key players Bukayo Saka 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 87.9, Declan Rice 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 87.8, Martin 脴degaard 馃嚦馃嚧 87.5, Bruno Guimar茫es 馃嚙馃嚪 86.6, Gabriel Magalh茫es 馃嚙馃嚪 84.4
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 10 路 馃嚜馃嚫 5 路 馃嚙馃嚪 3 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
181st08-21 v Coventry: +4.808-31 v Aston Villa: +2.409-06 v Chelsea: +2.809-12 v Sunderland: +3.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Liverpool v Tottenham

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 57%
X 21%
2 22%
Prediction: Liverpool to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 66%
Match preview

The model makes Liverpool clear favourites at 57%, with Tottenham at 22% and the draw at 21%. Liverpool have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 9 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 67%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 66%. Watch Florian Wirtz 馃嚛馃嚜 and Mohamed Salah 馃嚜馃嚞 for Liverpool, and Mohammed Kudus 馃嚞馃嚟 and Joao Palhinha 馃嚨馃嚬 for Tottenham.

Liverpool: Fell from 24/25 champions to 5th in 25/26 - a turbulent title defence but salvaged UCL.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Liverpool

Fell from 24/25 champions to 5th in 25/26 - a turbulent title defence but salvaged UCL. Anfield still a fortress by xG. Summer 2026 reshaping the attack. Bounce-back candidate; managerial and squad churn make early-season form the tell.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 78.4 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 FulhamPremier League
  • WH2-1 Atletico MadridUCL
  • WA2-0 IpswichPremier League
  • DH2-2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • DA2-2 NewcastlePremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,5,3,4,4
Key players Virgil van Dijk 馃嚦馃嚤 88.4, Dominik Szoboszlai 馃嚟馃嚭 85.3, J茅r茅my Jacquet 馃嚝馃嚪 83.2, Cody Gakpo 馃嚦馃嚤 80.7🔥, Ronald Ara煤jo 馃嚭馃嚲 79.5
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 13 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚟馃嚭 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
5138th08-23 v Newcastle: +0.408-29 v Nottingham Forest: -0.309-04 v Ipswich: +3.009-12 v Fulham: +0.0

Tottenham

London. Near-catastrophe: survived on the final day (17th, 41pts, Palhinha winner vs Everton); De Zerbi arrived in March. Elite stadium and squad value vs bottom-half output = biggest mispricing candidate. Full De Zerbi pre-season could transform them.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 78.1 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 EvertonPremier League
  • DA0-0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • LH0-2 NewcastlePremier League
  • WH5-1 CharltonEFL Cup
  • LA0-3 BrentfordPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,3,2,3,6
Key players Jan Paul van Hecke 馃嚦馃嚤 86.7, Marcos Senesi 馃嚘馃嚪 86.2, Martin D煤bravka 馃嚫馃嚢 81.6, Mateus Fernandes 馃嚨馃嚬 81.1, Xavi Simons 馃嚦馃嚤 79.8
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 9 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
172017th08-22 v Brentford: -5.808-29 v Newcastle: -2.909-05 v Nottingham Forest: +0.009-12 v Everton: +0.0
league draws 20% · chaos 97volatile

Reading v Brentford

⚡ SQUAD GAP: BRENTFORD
1 22%
X 21%
2 58%
Prediction: Brentford to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
Match preview

The model makes Brentford clear favourites at 58%, with Reading at 22% and the draw at 21%. Brentford have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 5 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Brentford the stronger. Watch Lewis Wing 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Charlie Savage 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 for Reading, and Igor Thiago and Mikkel Damsgaard 馃嚛馃嚢 for Brentford.

Reading: 12th, the first stable season after the ownership crisis resolved.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Reading

12th, the first stable season after the ownership crisis resolved. SCL Stadium. Academy still elite; upper-half push plausible as normality returns.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 48.4 all Europe · League One
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • WH3-1 BlackpoolLeague One
  • WH5-0 Mansfield TownLeague One
  • WA3-0 StevenageEFL Cup
  • DA0-0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,2,4,2,3
Key players Lewis Wing 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 65.2, Jack Marriott 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 56.8, Benn Ward 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 56.7, Joel Pereira 馃嚨馃嚬 53.8, Jeriel Dorsett 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 52.1
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 14 路 馃嚠馃嚜 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伔鬆伂鬆伋鬆伩 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
82314th08-15 v Luton: -2.008-22 v AFC Wimbledon: +0.309-02 v Mansfield Town: +6.009-05 v Blackpool: +3.009-12 v Cambridge United: -2.0

Brentford

London. Smart-recruitment model club; Keith Andrews' first season went well, powered by Igor Thiago's 22 goals (2nd top scorer). Small Gtech ground, set-piece and long-throw specialists. Mid-table with cup upside; vulnerable if Thiago is sold.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 76.6 all Europe · Premier League
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 BournemouthPremier League
  • DH1-1 SunderlandPremier League
  • DA1-1 LeedsPremier League
  • WA6-1 BirminghamEFL Cup
  • WH3-0 TottenhamPremier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,2,1,4,7
Key players Caoimhin Kelleher 馃嚠馃嚜 84.6, Vitaly Janelt 馃嚛馃嚜 80.3, Sepp van den Berg 馃嚦馃嚤 79.4, Mikkel Damsgaard 馃嚛馃嚢 79.0, Michael Kayode 馃嚠馃嚬 78.2
Nationalities 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 7 路 馃嚠馃嚜 2 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
276th08-22 v Tottenham: +5.808-30 v Leeds: +0.109-05 v Sunderland: +0.009-12 v Bournemouth: +0.0