Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇨🇿 Chance Liga

league draws 24% · chaos 74lively

Baník Ostrava (11th) v Pardubice (15th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 52%
X 25%
2 24%
Prediction: Baník Ostrava to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 46%
vs performances: Baník Ostrava +0.52 (6g) · Pardubice -1.26 (4g)
Match preview

The model makes Baník Ostrava narrow favourites at 52%, with Pardubice at 24% and the draw at 25%. Watch Ondrej Kricfalusi and David Planka 🇨🇿 for Baník Ostrava, and Abdullahi Tanko 🇳🇬 and Ryan Mahuta 🇸🇸 for Pardubice.

Baník Ostrava: Silesian giant (Ostrava), huge passionate fanbase and one of Czechia's great atmospheres; Městský stadion, Bazaly heritage. · Pardubice: East-Bohemia club, a modern top-flight riser that spent seasons groundsharing during a stadium rebuild; small crowds.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Baník Ostrava (11th)

Silesian giant (Ostrava), huge passionate fanbase and one of Czechia's great atmospheres; Městský stadion, Bazaly heritage. Historic champions, cup pedigree, perennial top-half push.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 38.0 in league · 13th of 16
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 11th (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 FK JablonecChance Liga
  • LA0-4 Mlada BoleslavChance Liga
  • WH1-0 Sigma OlomoucChance Liga
  • WH1-0 ArtisChance Liga
  • LA1-2 Hradec KrálovéChance Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,1,1,4,3
Key players Michal Frydrych 🇨🇿 56.8, Jiri Micek 49.2, Michal Kohút 🇨🇿 45.4, Artúr Musák 🇭🇺 43.5, Aboubacar Traore 42.4
Nationalities 🇨🇿 19 · 🇸🇰 7 · 🇨🇮 2 · 🇳🇬 2 · 🇪🇪 1 · 🇬🇭 1 · +14 more
Season pulse season 2026
41211th07-25 v Zlin: +2.108-01 v Slavia Praha: -5.808-09 v Hradec Králové: -2.808-16 v Artis: +2.708-29 v Sigma Olomouc: +1.809-06 v Mlada Boleslav: -5.009-09 v FK Jablonec: -5.0

Pardubice (15th)

East-Bohemia club, a modern top-flight riser that spent seasons groundsharing during a stadium rebuild; small crowds. Overachiever, mid-table survivor.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 39.6 in league · 12th of 16
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 15th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 15th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 SlováckoChance Liga
  • LH1-2 ArtisChance Liga
  • LA1-3 Sigma OlomoucChance Liga
  • DH1-1 Mlada BoleslavChance Liga
  • LA1-2 Slavia PrahaChance Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,2,4,3,0
Key players Vojtech Patrak 48.7, Tobias Boledovic 48.5, Jason Noslin 🇳🇱 47.8, Tomáš Jelínek 🇨🇿 45.5, Luka Kharatishvili 🇬🇪 45.3
Nationalities 🇨🇿 26 · 🇳🇬 4 · 🇨🇿 2 · 🇨🇮 2 · 🇫🇷 1 · 🇩🇪 1 · +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
91515th07-26 v Hradec Králové: -2.408-02 v FK Jablonec: -2.008-09 v Slavia Praha: -3.108-15 v Mlada Boleslav: +0.008-23 v Sigma Olomouc: -2.908-29 v Artis: -2.009-05 v Slovácko: +0.0
league draws 24% · chaos 74lively

Plzen (9th) v Sigma Olomouc (4th)

1 58%
X 24%
2 19%
Prediction: Plzen to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
vs performances: Plzen -0.55 (5g) · Sigma Olomouc +0.07 (5g)
xG overlay · Plzen better on chances than on results by 0.37 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Plzen clear favourites at 58%, with Sigma Olomouc at 19% and the draw at 24%. Plzen are unbeaten in five (12 scored, 8 conceded). Sigma Olomouc have won 4 of their last five (10 scored, 4 conceded). Watch Amar Memić 🇧🇦 and Tomáš Ladra 🇨🇿 for Plzen, and Michal Beran 🇨🇿 and Abdoulaye Sylla 🇬🇳 for Sigma Olomouc.

Plzen: Viktoria Plzeň, multiple Czech champions and UCL/UEL-group regular; Doosan Arena, hostile home. · Sigma Olomouc: Moravian club, cup winner and European regular; Andrův stadion.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Plzen (9th)

Viktoria Plzeň, multiple Czech champions and UCL/UEL-group regular; Doosan Arena, hostile home. 3rd in 2025/26, consistent European performer, deep squad.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 72.9 in league · 2nd of 16
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 9th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Hradec KrálovéChance Liga
  • WA3-0 ArtisChance Liga
  • DH1-1 SlováckoChance Liga
  • WH5-1 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEL
  • LA0-3 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 10,5,2,3,0
Key players Sampson Dweh 🇱🇷 68.0, Dávid Krčík 🇸🇰 61.4, Patrik Hrošovský 🇸🇰 58.8, Lukáš Červ 🇨🇿 56.9, Denis Višinský 🇨🇿 55.0
Nationalities 🇨🇿 16 · 🇸🇰 4 · 🇷🇸 2 · 🇨🇿 2 · 🇳🇬 2 · 🇱🇷 1 · +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
8159th07-25 v Slovan Liberec: -3.708-01 v Zbrojovka Brno: +0.108-08 v Teplice: +0.508-15 v Zlin: +2.008-30 v Slovácko: +0.409-05 v Artis: +4.009-09 v Hradec Králové: -0.4

Sigma Olomouc (4th)

Moravian club, cup winner and European regular; Andrův stadion. Develops youth, solid top-half side.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 52.8 in league · 7th of 16
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 4th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 Bohemians 1905Chance Liga
  • LA0-1 Baník OstravaChance Liga
  • WH3-1 PardubiceChance Liga
  • WA2-1 SlováckoChance Liga
  • WA2-1 ArtisChance Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 3,3,4,1,3
Key players Dominik Janošek 🇨🇿 61.9, Fabijan Krivak 🇭🇷 53.8, Abubakar Ghali 🇳🇬 51.8, Abdoulaye Sylla 🇬🇳 51.8, Péter Baráth 🇭🇺 51.3
Nationalities 🇨🇿 25 · 🇳🇬 5 · 🇸🇰 5 · 🇭🇷 2 · 🇬🇳 1 · 🇷🇴 1 · +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
2144th07-26 v FK Jablonec: -2.608-02 v Mlada Boleslav: +0.708-09 v Artis: +1.708-15 v Slovácko: +2.008-23 v Pardubice: +2.908-29 v Baník Ostrava: -1.809-05 v Bohemians 1905: +4.0
league draws 24% · chaos 74lively

Zlin (16th) v Hradec Králové (8th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 21%
X 26%
2 53%
Prediction: Hradec Králové to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
vs performances: Zlin -0.79 (4g) · Hradec Králové +0.27 (6g)
xG overlay · Zlin better on chances than on results by 0.49 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Hradec Králové narrow favourites at 53%, with Zlin at 21% and the draw at 26%. Zlin have lost 5 straight (5 scored, 12 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Michal Cupak and Cletus Nombil 🇬🇭 for Zlin, and Vladimír Darida 🇨🇿 for Hradec Králové.

Zlin: Moravian club (Fastav Zlín), 2017 Czech Cup winners; Letná Zlín. · Hradec Králové: East-Bohemia club; the modern Malšovická Aréna.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Zlin (16th)

Moravian club (Fastav Zlín), 2017 Czech Cup winners; Letná Zlín. Mid-to-lower side, relegation-scrappy, modest budget.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 29.4 in league · 16th of 16
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 16th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-3 TepliceChance Liga
  • LA2-3 Zbrojovka BrnoChance Liga
  • LH0-1 Slovan LiberecChance Liga
  • LA2-3 PlzenChance Liga
  • LH0-2 Bohemians 1905Chance Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,5,1,5,4
Key players Jakub Kolar 50.1, Jakub Černín 🇨🇿 43.6, David Machalík 🇨🇿 42.9, Tomáš Poznar 🇨🇿 42.6, Michal Fukala 🇨🇿 42.2
Nationalities 🇨🇿 24 · 🇸🇰 3 · 🇬🇭 2 · 🇬🇪 1 · 🇨🇲 1 · 🇳🇬 1 · +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
111616th07-25 v Baník Ostrava: -2.107-31 v Sparta Praha: -3.608-08 v Bohemians 1905: -3.508-15 v Plzen: -2.008-22 v Slovan Liberec: -2.408-29 v Zbrojovka Brno: -2.009-06 v Teplice: -3.0

Hradec Králové (8th)

East-Bohemia club; the modern Malšovická Aréna. A strong 5th in 2025/26 earned European football. Solid, well-run; Darida the experienced leader.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 55.8 in league · 5th of 16
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 8th (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 PlzenChance Liga
  • WH2-1 Sparta PrahaChance Liga
  • LA0-1 Zbrojovka BrnoChance Liga
  • LA0-2 Slovan LiberecChance Liga
  • LH1-2 PanathinaikosUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,1,3,0
Key players Vladimír Darida 🇨🇿 68.2, Adam Zadrazil 58.7, Filip Čihák 🇨🇿 52.2, Tomáš Petrášek 🇨🇿 49.6, Tom Sloncik 47.9
Nationalities 🇨🇿 21 · 🇸🇰 4 · 🇳🇱 1 · 🇱🇻 1 · 🇦🇴 1
Season pulse season 2026
4118th07-26 v Pardubice: +2.408-02 v Bohemians 1905: +0.108-09 v Baník Ostrava: +2.808-30 v Slovan Liberec: -3.909-02 v Zbrojovka Brno: -2.009-06 v Sparta Praha: +2.009-09 v Plzen: +0.4
league draws 24% · chaos 74lively

Teplice (6th) v Slavia Praha (1st)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: SLAVIA PRAHA
1 14%
X 24%
2 62%
Prediction: Slavia Praha to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 55%
vs performances: Teplice +0.58 (5g) · Slavia Praha +0.31 (6g)
xG overlay · Slavia Praha better on chances than on results by 0.15 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes Slavia Praha clear favourites at 62%, with Teplice at 14% and the draw at 24%. Slavia Praha are unbeaten in five (12 scored, 4 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Slavia Praha the stronger. Watch Michal Bílek 🇨🇿 and Matej Radosta 🇨🇿 for Teplice, and Lukáš Provod 🇨🇿 and Tomáš Chorý 🇨🇿 for Slavia Praha.

Teplice: North-Bohemia spa-town club, long-established top-flight fixture; Na Stínadlech. · Slavia Praha: Prague giant, 2025/26 champions and UEL/UCL regular; Eden Arena, ferocious support.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Teplice (6th)

North-Bohemia spa-town club, long-established top-flight fixture; Na Stínadlech. Mid-to-lower side, modest budget, survival specialist.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 44.5 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 6th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-1 ZlinChance Liga
  • WH2-0 FK JablonecChance Liga
  • LH0-2 Zbrojovka BrnoChance Liga
  • LA1-4 Sparta PrahaChance Liga
  • DH5-5 PlzenChance Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 10,5,2,2,4
Key players Matej Pulkrab 🇨🇿 54.5, Matej Radosta 🇨🇿 54.2, Oskars Vientiess 🇱🇻 48.7, Jan Fortelný 🇨🇿 46.9, Matej Riznič 🇸🇰 44.6
Nationalities 🇨🇿 19 · 🇸🇰 5 · 🇺🇦 3 · 🇨🇿 2 · 🇳🇬 1 · 🇱🇹 1 · +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
2106th07-25 v Bohemians 1905: +3.908-01 v Slovan Liberec: +2.008-08 v Plzen: -0.508-15 v Sparta Praha: -4.008-23 v Zbrojovka Brno: -2.908-30 v FK Jablonec: +2.909-06 v Zlin: +3.0

Slavia Praha (1st)

strong away

Prague giant, 2025/26 champions and UEL/UCL regular; Eden Arena, ferocious support. The country's benchmark, deep and well-run title machine.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 86.9 in league · 1st of 16
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (17 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 LensUCL
  • WH4-0 Zbrojovka BrnoChance Liga
  • WA3-0 Sparta PrahaChance Liga
  • DH2-2 Bohemians 1905Chance Liga
  • DA1-1 Slovan LiberecChance Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,4,3,4
Key players Michal Sadílek 🇨🇿 68.4, Tomáš Chorý 🇨🇿 66.3, Stepan Chaloupek 62.3, Mojmír Chytil 🇨🇿 61.8, Lukáš Provod 🇨🇿 61.1
Nationalities 🇨🇿 21 · 🇳🇬 4 · 🇱🇷 2 · 🇸🇳 2 · 🇰🇪 1 · 🇳🇴 1 · +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
131st07-26 v Slovácko: +6.008-01 v Baník Ostrava: +5.808-09 v Pardubice: +3.108-16 v Slovan Liberec: -0.408-22 v Bohemians 1905: +1.008-30 v Sparta Praha: +3.809-05 v Zbrojovka Brno: +5.0

Club map · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city (temperatures unavailable offline; they refresh with the daily run); ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.