Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚟馃嚪 HNL

league draws 24% · chaos 10orderly

Istra 1961 (6th) v Rudes (9th)

1 69%
X 22%
2 9%
Prediction: Istra 1961 to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 61%
vs performances: Istra 1961 -0.69 (4g) · Rudes +0.00 (6g)
Squad overlay · Istra 1961 stronger by 0.12, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
xG overlay · Rudes better on chances than on results by 0.79 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes Istra 1961 clear favourites at 69%, with Rudes at 9% and the draw at 22%. Rudes have lost 4 of their last five (5 scored, 17 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. Watch Smail Prevljak 馃嚙馃嚘 and Stjepan Lon膷ar 馃嚙馃嚘 for Istra 1961, and Jurica Poldruga膷 馃嚟馃嚪 and Vedran Celjak 馃嚟馃嚪 for Rudes.

Istra 1961: Pula club (Istria), foreign-owned; Aldo Drosina. · Rudes: Zagreb neighbourhood club, tiny ground and crowds; yo-yo lower-table HNL side, development-focused, survival the aim.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Istra 1961 (6th)

FOREIGN CORE 69%

Pula club (Istria), foreign-owned; Aldo Drosina. Mid-table HNL side, cosmopolitan squad, coastal setting, survival-focused.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 39.9 in league · 7th of 10
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 6th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 NK VarazdinHNL
  • DH2-2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • LA2-3 HNK RijekaHNL
  • WH3-0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • DA2-2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 4,3,5,4,0
Key players Emil Frederiksen 馃嚛馃嚢 53.4, Franko Koli膰 馃嚟馃嚪 52.8, Advan Kadu拧i膰 馃嚙馃嚘 48.4, Dukan Ahmeti 馃嚟馃嚪 47.0, Josip Rado拧evi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 45.9
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 11 路 馃嚙馃嚘 6 路 馃嚦馃嚞 4 路 馃嚝馃嚠 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 2 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
586th08-01 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: -1.308-09 v HNK Hajduk Split: -0.408-15 v NK Slaven Belupo: +4.008-23 v HNK Rijeka: -2.408-29 v Dinamo Zagreb: -0.509-04 v NK Varazdin: +0.0

Rudes (9th)

Zagreb neighbourhood club, tiny ground and crowds; yo-yo lower-table HNL side, development-focused, survival the aim.

Style Pass-dominant from 2023
Squad quality 30.8 in league · 10th of 10
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2026 so far: 9th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • LA0-2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • WH4-1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • LA0-4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • LH1-6 NK OsijekHNL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 7,4,5,2,4
Key players Noa Skoko 馃嚟馃嚪 50.4, Vedran Celjak 馃嚟馃嚪 48.8, Jurica Poldruga膷 馃嚟馃嚪 44.5, Lenny Ile膷i膰 42.8, Ivan 膼ori膰 41.6
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 10 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1
Season pulse season 2026
8109th08-02 v HNK Rijeka: -3.008-08 v NK Osijek: -6.008-14 v Dinamo Zagreb: -6.008-21 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: +4.308-29 v NK Varazdin: -3.809-06 v HNK Hajduk Split: -6.0
league draws 24% · chaos 10orderly

HNK Hajduk Split (1st)🔥 v NK Slaven Belupo (8th)

1 69%
X 22%
2 9%
Prediction: HNK Hajduk Split to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 63%
vs performances: HNK Hajduk Split +0.12 (6g) · NK Slaven Belupo +0.36 (5g)
Squad overlay · HNK Hajduk Split stronger by 0.28, shifted the price by up to 1.1 pts
xG overlay · NK Slaven Belupo better on chances than on results by 0.36 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes HNK Hajduk Split clear favourites at 69%, with NK Slaven Belupo at 9% and the draw at 22%. HNK Hajduk Split arrive on a 4-game winning run (14 scored, 3 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. Watch Marko Livaja 馃嚟馃嚪 and Michele 艩ego 馃嚟馃嚪 for HNK Hajduk Split, and Josip Mitrovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 and Dominik Kova膷i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 for NK Slaven Belupo.

HNK Hajduk Split: Split giant, ferocious Torcida support; Poljud, best atmosphere in Croatia. · NK Slaven Belupo: Koprivnica club (pharma-backed, Belupo); small Gradski stadion.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

HNK Hajduk Split (1st)🔥

Split giant, ferocious Torcida support; Poljud, best atmosphere in Croatia. 2nd in the 25/26 HNL for a UEL spot, still chasing a first title since 2005. Marko Livaja the talisman.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 63.6 in league · 3rd of 10
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 1st (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-0 RudesHNL
  • WH2-0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • WA3-2 Rak贸w Cz臋stochowaUECL
  • WH4-0 NK OsijekHNL
  • DH2-2 Rak贸w Cz臋stochowaUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 4,3,4,2,4
Key players Dario Mare拧i膰 馃嚘馃嚬 66.1, Rokas Puk拧tas 馃嚭馃嚫 61.0, Marko Livaja 馃嚟馃嚪 56.6, Zvonimir 艩arlija 馃嚟馃嚪 55.1, Marin 艩oti膷ek 馃嚟馃嚪 54.2
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 21 路 馃嚜馃嚫 4 路 馃嚱馃嚢 3 路 馃嚘馃嚭 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
171st08-02 v NK Varazdin: -1.808-09 v Istra 1961: +0.408-16 v HNK Gorica: +2.008-23 v NK Osijek: +5.608-31 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: +3.909-06 v Rudes: +6.0

NK Slaven Belupo (8th)

Koprivnica club (pharma-backed, Belupo); small Gradski stadion. Steady mid-table HNL fixture, modest budget, rarely troubles the top.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 42.8 in league · 6th of 10
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 8th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • LA0-3 NK OsijekHNL
  • WH2-0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • LA0-3 Istra 1961HNL
  • LH1-4 NK VarazdinHNL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,3,2,3,3
Key players Ljuban Crepulja 馃嚟馃嚪 60.5, Ilija Nestorovski 馃嚥馃嚢 55.7, Josip Mitrovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 52.2, Dominik Kova膷i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 49.2, Alen Grgi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 48.1
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 36 路 馃嚥馃嚢 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚥馃嚛 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
8108th07-31 v Dinamo Zagreb: -4.108-09 v NK Varazdin: -4.808-15 v Istra 1961: -4.008-22 v HNK Gorica: +3.008-30 v NK Osijek: -4.309-06 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: +1.7

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.