Daily Football Model

HNL DNA · 2026-10-02

← Today's predictions Intel Unpredictable

🇭🇷 HNL

The Fortress — fortress very high & chaos very low

Personality twin: 🌏 AFC Champions League (distance 11) · polar opposite: 🇨🇭 Swiss Super League

Punished on few chances 23%Cynical disruptor 15%Frugal finishers 15%Under siege 15%strength -0.20σ

trait	this league
Draws	25%	p53
Both score	52%	p47
Tempo	2.75 goals/game	p48
Fortress	+22pp home	p94
Chaos	9/100	p9
Late drama	22% of goals 76'+	p10
Comebacks	15% won from behind	p27
Model grip	66% favourites landed (n=32)	p86

Each trait is measured over the league's last two seasons (219 games) and shown as a percentile against every league we cover; the radar is those eight percentiles. Late drama and comebacks come from goal-by-minute events and are blank where the feed carries none. Model grip is our own favourite hit rate on graded days, so it needs 15 graded fixtures before it shows. Descriptive only.