Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚟馃嚪 HNL

league draws 24% · chaos 10orderly

NK Osijek (4th) v Dinamo Zagreb (2nd)🔥

1 16%
X 25%
2 59%
Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%
vs performances: NK Osijek +0.55 (5g) · Dinamo Zagreb +0.31 (4g)
Squad overlay · Dinamo Zagreb stronger by 0.33, shifted the price by up to 1.6 pts
xG overlay · NK Osijek better on chances than on results by 0.95 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Dinamo Zagreb clear favourites at 59%, with NK Osijek at 16% and the draw at 25%. NK Osijek have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 9 conceded). Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in five (12 scored, 3 conceded). Watch N. Omerovi膰 馃嚙馃嚘 and S. Mikolcic for NK Osijek, and Dion Drena Beljo 馃嚟馃嚪 and Miha Zajc 馃嚫馃嚠 for Dinamo Zagreb.

NK Osijek: Slavonian club (Osijek), the modern Opus Arena and a big regional fanbase; European regular. · Dinamo Zagreb: Croatia's dominant club, record champions and UCL/UEL group regular; Maksimir Stadium.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

NK Osijek (4th)

Slavonian club (Osijek), the modern Opus Arena and a big regional fanbase; European regular. Predicted qualifier; ambitious, rebuilding toward the top.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 52.7 in league · 5th of 10
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 4th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-4 HNK RijekaHNL
  • WH3-0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • LA0-4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • WH1-0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • WA6-1 RudesHNL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 7,1,4,3,5
Key players Nail Omerovi膰 馃嚙馃嚘 58.5, Ivano Kolarik 馃嚟馃嚪 54.7, Domagoj Bukvi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 54.5, Roko Juri拧i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 54.2, Luka Vrban膷i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 52.4
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 21 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
144th08-01 v HNK Gorica: +3.908-08 v Rudes: +6.008-15 v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: +2.408-23 v HNK Hajduk Split: -5.608-30 v NK Slaven Belupo: +4.309-05 v HNK Rijeka: -4.0

Dinamo Zagreb (2nd)🔥

strong away

Croatia's dominant club, record champions and UCL/UEL group regular; Maksimir Stadium. Qualified via the Champions League route as 25/26 champions. Elite academy (Modri膰/Kova膷i膰 lineage).

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 77.6 in league · 1st of 10
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • DA2-2 Istra 1961HNL
  • LA1-3 VikingUCL
  • WH3-1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • DH2-2 VikingUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,4,4,4,1
Key players Dion Drena Beljo 馃嚟馃嚪 77.9, Stjepan Radelji膰 馃嚙馃嚘 66.0, Sergi Dom铆nguez 馃嚜馃嚫 65.5, Josip Mi拧i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 64.7, Luka Stojkovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 64.0
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 25 路 馃嚜馃嚫 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚛馃嚳 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 2 路 馃嚨馃嚟 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
142nd07-31 v NK Slaven Belupo: +4.108-14 v Rudes: +6.008-22 v NK Varazdin: +3.008-29 v Istra 1961: +0.509-05 v HNK Gorica: +2.0
league draws 24% · chaos 10orderly

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (7th) v HNK Rijeka (5th)

1 28%
X 27%
2 45%
Prediction: HNK Rijeka to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%
vs performances: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb +0.08 (6g) · HNK Rijeka +0.08 (4g)
Squad overlay · HNK Rijeka stronger by 0.22, shifted the price by up to 1.3 pts
xG overlay · HNK Rijeka better on chances than on results by 0.07 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes HNK Rijeka narrow favourites at 45%, with NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 28% and the draw at 27%. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have lost 4 straight (5 scored, 10 conceded). HNK Rijeka have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 6 conceded). Watch Marko Paja膷 馃嚟馃嚪 and Aleks Stojakovi膰 馃嚫馃嚠 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, and T. Fruk 馃嚟馃嚪 and Tiago Dantas 馃嚨馃嚬 for HNK Rijeka.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: Zagreb's development club, effectively a Dinamo feeder; groundshare, tiny crowds. · HNK Rijeka: Adriatic club, 24/25 double winners; Rujevica.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (7th)

Zagreb's development club, effectively a Dinamo feeder; groundshare, tiny crowds. Youth-heavy, produces and sells talent, results volatile, cannot draw a big following.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 36.1 in league · 9th of 10
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 7th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • LA0-2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • LA1-4 RudesHNL
  • LA0-1 NK OsijekHNL
  • WH3-1 HNK GoricaHNL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 4,1,5,2,3
Key players Josip Posavec 馃嚟馃嚪 56.4, Marko Paja膷 馃嚟馃嚪 55.6, Athanasios Triantafyllou 48.1, Denis Kolinger 馃嚟馃嚪 45.2, Luka Daj膷er 馃嚟馃嚪 41.3
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 28 路 馃嚥馃嚜 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 2 路 馃嚙馃嚘 2 路 馃嚥馃嚢 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
277th08-01 v Istra 1961: +1.308-08 v HNK Gorica: +2.808-15 v NK Osijek: -2.408-21 v Rudes: -4.308-31 v HNK Hajduk Split: -3.909-06 v NK Slaven Belupo: -1.7

HNK Rijeka (5th)

Adriatic club, 24/25 double winners; Rujevica. UECL entrant; well-run, develops and sells, strong home form.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 52.7 in league · 4th of 10
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 5th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-1 NK OsijekHNL
  • DA0-0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • LH1-4 FC MidtjyllandUECL
  • WH3-2 Istra 1961HNL
  • LA0-2 FC MidtjyllandUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,2,5,0,5
Key players Toni Fruk 馃嚟馃嚪 66.5, Tiago Dantas 馃嚨馃嚬 60.5, Ante Majstorovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 52.9, Daniel Adu-Adjei 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 51.6, Justas Lasickas 馃嚤馃嚬 51.0
Nationalities 馃嚟馃嚪 20 路 馃嚙馃嚘 4 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚚馃嚞 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
375th08-02 v Rudes: +3.008-16 v NK Varazdin: -3.508-23 v Istra 1961: +2.408-31 v HNK Gorica: +0.109-05 v NK Osijek: +4.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.