Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚭馃嚲 Primera Divisi贸n

league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile

Progreso (16th) v Cerro (14th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 33%
X 29%
2 38%
Prediction: Cerro to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 36%
Match preview

The model makes Cerro the marginal call at 38%, with Progreso at 33% and the draw at 29%. Cerro have won 3 of their last five (5 scored, 6 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 36%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band.

Progreso: Montevideo club, 1989 champions, now modest; small ground. · Cerro: Montevideo club (Villa del Cerro), a working-class, passionate following; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Progreso (16th)

Montevideo club, 1989 champions, now modest; small ground.

Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 16th (22 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 Albion FCPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 Club NacionalPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-2 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 1,2,1,1,1
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 30 路 馃嚚馃嚧 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
121616th05-30 v Danubio: +2.006-07 v Albion FC: -2.007-11 v Wanderers: -3.007-18 v Deportivo Maldonado: +2.008-02 v Club Nacional: -2.008-08 v Central Espanol: -2.008-16 v Deportivo Maldonado: -3.008-23 v Club Nacional: -2.008-29 v Danubio: +2.009-07 v Albion FC: +2.0

Cerro (14th)

Montevideo club (Villa del Cerro), a working-class, passionate following; small ground.

Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 14th (29 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 Boston RiverPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-4 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH2-1 Albion FCPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 1,3,4,2,1
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 34 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3
Season pulse season 2026
121614th05-29 v Cerro Largo: -3.006-07 v Penarol: -2.007-12 v Liverpool Montevideo: +2.007-26 v Racing Montevideo: +2.008-03 v Defensor Sporting: -2.008-09 v Danubio: +2.008-15 v Albion FC: +2.008-21 v Liverpool Montevideo: -5.008-29 v Boston River: +0.009-06 v Racing Montevideo: +2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile

Juventud (11th) v Danubio (15th)

1 51%
X 27%
2 22%
Prediction: Juventud to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
Club briefings

Juventud (11th)

Las Piedras club, a modest top-flight side.

Seasons 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 11th (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Club NacionalPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH2-0 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 Cerro LargoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,1,1,2,4
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 28 路 馃嚘馃嚪 5 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
111611th06-06 v Club Nacional: -2.007-05 v Danubio: +0.007-11 v Atletico Torque: -3.007-17 v Albion FC: +2.008-01 v Deportivo Maldonado: +0.008-07 v Cerro Largo: +0.008-15 v Atletico Torque: -2.008-22 v Central Espanol: +2.008-29 v Deportivo Maldonado: +3.009-06 v Club Nacional: +0.0

Danubio (15th)

draw merchants

Montevideo club, a famed academy that develops and sells; small ground.

Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 15th (24 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-4 PenarolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 ProgresoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 Boston RiverPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 CerroPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 1,0,0,1,4
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 33 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
31515th06-05 v Wanderers: +0.007-05 v Juventud: +0.007-11 v Club Nacional: +0.007-24 v Atletico Torque: -2.008-01 v Albion FC: +0.008-09 v Cerro: -2.008-14 v Boston River: +0.008-23 v Racing Montevideo: +0.008-29 v Progreso: -2.009-05 v Penarol: -5.0
league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile

Defensor Sporting (13th) v Deportivo Maldonado (2nd)

1 31%
X 29%
2 40%
Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 39%
Match preview

The model makes Deportivo Maldonado the marginal call at 40%, with Defensor Sporting at 31% and the draw at 29%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 39%).

Defensor Sporting: Montevideo club, well-run with a productive academy; small ground. · Deportivo Maldonado: Maldonado club, an unusual foreign-player transfer conduit; modest on the pitch.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Defensor Sporting (13th)

Montevideo club, well-run with a productive academy; small ground.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 13th (29 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH1-3 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 Cerro LargoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-4 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,4,2,4,2
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 33 路 馃嚘馃嚪 5 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚨馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
41313th05-30 v Racing Montevideo: +0.006-07 v Boston River: +0.007-13 v Cerro Largo: +0.007-25 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.008-03 v Cerro: +2.008-09 v Wanderers: -2.008-16 v Liverpool Montevideo: -5.008-22 v Cerro Largo: +0.008-29 v Atletico Torque: -3.009-06 v Central Espanol: +0.0

Deportivo Maldonado (2nd)

Maldonado club, an unusual foreign-player transfer conduit; modest on the pitch.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 15th | 2026 so far: 2nd (49 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-2 JuventudPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 PenarolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA2-0 ProgresoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH2-2 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 4,2,0,2,2
Season pulse season 2026
1102nd05-31 v Club Nacional: +4.006-06 v Atletico Torque: +3.007-10 v Albion FC: +0.007-18 v Progreso: -2.008-01 v Juventud: +0.008-10 v Racing Montevideo: +0.008-16 v Progreso: +3.008-22 v Penarol: +0.008-29 v Juventud: -3.009-05 v Wanderers: +3.0
league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile
next day · Monday

Penarol (1st) v Albion FC (9th)

1 67%
X 22%
2 12%
Prediction: Penarol to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
Match preview

The model makes Penarol clear favourites at 67%, with Albion FC at 12% and the draw at 22%. Penarol have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 3 conceded). Albion FC have lost 5 straight (3 scored, 8 conceded).

Penarol: Montevideo giant, Uruguay's most successful and most-supported club with vast Libertadores pedigree; the Campe贸n del Siglo, the Cl谩sico with Nacional. · Albion FC: Montevideo club, Uruguay's oldest, historically small and recently promoted; tiny ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Penarol (1st)

Montevideo giant, Uruguay's most successful and most-supported club with vast Libertadores pedigree; the Campe贸n del Siglo, the Cl谩sico with Nacional. A benchmark.

Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 1st (53 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 Club NacionalPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH2-1 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH5-1 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 6,3,0,1,4
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 52 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
191st06-01 v Central Espanol: -2.006-07 v Cerro: +2.007-12 v Racing Montevideo: +0.007-18 v Boston River: +4.008-01 v Cerro Largo: +4.008-05 v Wanderers: +5.008-16 v Central Espanol: +2.008-22 v Deportivo Maldonado: +0.008-30 v Club Nacional: -2.009-05 v Danubio: +5.0

Albion FC (9th)

Montevideo club, Uruguay's oldest, historically small and recently promoted; tiny ground.

Seasons 2026 so far: 9th (34 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 ProgresoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH2-3 Boston RiverPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA1-2 CerroPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 1,3,5,1,1
Season pulse season 2026
2169th05-31 v Atletico Torque: -2.006-07 v Progreso: +2.007-10 v Deportivo Maldonado: +0.007-17 v Juventud: -2.008-01 v Danubio: +0.008-08 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.008-15 v Cerro: -2.008-21 v Boston River: -2.008-31 v Racing Montevideo: -2.009-07 v Progreso: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.