Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚭馃嚲 Primera Divisi贸n

league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile

Racing Montevideo (3rd) v Boston River (12th)

1 56%
X 26%
2 18%
Prediction: Racing Montevideo to win (solid) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 34%
Match preview

The model makes Racing Montevideo clear favourites at 56%, with Boston River at 18% and the draw at 26%. The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 36%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 34%).

Racing Montevideo: Montevideo club, small and yo-yo. · Boston River: Montevideo club, a modern top-flight side; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Racing Montevideo (3rd)

Montevideo club, small and yo-yo.

Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 3rd (49 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 CerroPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 Albion FCPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH2-0 Club NacionalPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA2-2 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 4,2,0,1,1
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 29 路 馃嚘馃嚪 6 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1
Season pulse season 2026
1153rd05-30 v Defensor Sporting: +0.006-06 v Central Espanol: +0.007-12 v Penarol: +0.007-26 v Cerro: -2.008-02 v Boston River: +2.008-10 v Deportivo Maldonado: +0.008-15 v Club Nacional: +3.008-23 v Danubio: +0.008-31 v Albion FC: +2.009-06 v Cerro: -2.0

Boston River (12th)

Montevideo club, a modern top-flight side; small ground.

Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 12th (30 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 CerroPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA3-2 Albion FCPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 DanubioPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA2-1 Club NacionalPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 3,0,5,2,1
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 36 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
101512th06-01 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.006-07 v Defensor Sporting: +0.007-12 v Central Espanol: +0.007-18 v Penarol: -4.008-02 v Racing Montevideo: -2.008-09 v Club Nacional: +2.008-14 v Danubio: +0.008-21 v Albion FC: +2.008-29 v Cerro: +0.009-06 v Liverpool Montevideo: -2.0
league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile

Wanderers (7th) v Club Nacional (6th)

1 28%
X 29%
2 43%
Prediction: Club Nacional to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Club briefings

Wanderers (7th)

Montevideo Wanderers, historic and mid-table; small ground.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 7th (42 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH3-0 Central EspanolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA1-5 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 Cerro LargoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 Defensor SportingPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 1,2,6,3,2
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 32 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
4135th06-05 v Danubio: +0.007-11 v Progreso: +3.007-17 v Club Nacional: +2.007-31 v Atletico Torque: +3.008-05 v Penarol: -5.008-09 v Defensor Sporting: +2.008-15 v Cerro Largo: +0.008-23 v Atletico Torque: -5.008-28 v Central Espanol: +4.009-05 v Deportivo Maldonado: -3.0

Club Nacional (6th)

Montevideo giant, one of Uruguay's big two with a vast fanbase and Libertadores pedigree; Gran Parque Central, the fierce Cl谩sico with Pe帽arol. A benchmark.

Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 6th (42 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 JuventudPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 PenarolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 ProgresoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-2 Racing MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH1-2 Boston RiverPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,2,1,1,4
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 46 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
1106th05-31 v Deportivo Maldonado: -4.006-06 v Juventud: +2.007-11 v Danubio: +0.007-17 v Wanderers: -2.008-02 v Progreso: +2.008-09 v Boston River: -2.008-15 v Racing Montevideo: -3.008-23 v Progreso: +2.008-30 v Penarol: +2.009-06 v Juventud: +0.0
league draws 27% · chaos 84volatile
next day · Sunday

Cerro Largo (10th) v Central Espanol (8th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 40%
X 29%
2 31%
Prediction: Cerro Largo to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 38%
Match preview

The model makes Cerro Largo the marginal call at 40%, with Central Espanol at 31% and the draw at 29%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 38%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band.

Cerro Largo: Melo club (eastern Uruguay), the rare non-Montevideo side, a long haul for visitors; a modest overachiever. · Central Espanol: Montevideo club, historic and modest; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Cerro Largo (10th)

Melo club (eastern Uruguay), the rare non-Montevideo side, a long haul for visitors; a modest overachiever.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 10th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Atletico TorquePrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 Liverpool MontevideoPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 Defensor SportingPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 JuventudPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,2,2,2,3
Nationalities 馃嚭馃嚲 31 路 馃嚘馃嚪 6
Season pulse season 2026
41410th05-29 v Cerro: +3.006-08 v Liverpool Montevideo: +0.007-13 v Defensor Sporting: +0.007-25 v Central Espanol: +2.008-01 v Penarol: -4.008-07 v Juventud: +0.008-15 v Wanderers: +0.008-22 v Defensor Sporting: +0.008-30 v Liverpool Montevideo: +0.009-04 v Atletico Torque: -2.0

Central Espanol (8th)

Montevideo club, historic and modest; small ground.

Seasons 2026 so far: 8th (37 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Defensor SportingPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA0-3 WanderersPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 JuventudPrimera Divisi贸n
  • LA1-2 PenarolPrimera Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 ProgresoPrimera Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,3,1,3,2
Season pulse season 2026
1128th06-01 v Penarol: +2.006-06 v Racing Montevideo: +0.007-12 v Boston River: +0.007-25 v Cerro Largo: -2.008-02 v Liverpool Montevideo: +0.008-08 v Progreso: +2.008-16 v Penarol: -2.008-22 v Juventud: -2.008-28 v Wanderers: -4.009-06 v Defensor Sporting: +0.0

Club map · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city (temperatures unavailable offline; they refresh with the daily run); ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.