Daily Football Model

2026-10-03 · 8 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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UEFA Nations League

league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 32%
X 27%
2 40%
Prediction: Albania to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 34%
Match preview

The model makes Albania the marginal call at 40%, with Finland at 32% and the draw at 27%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 34%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Arttu Hoskonen and Robert Ivanov for Finland, and Kristjan Asllani and Ardian Ismajli for Albania.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Finland

Seasons UNL Elo 1434 (93 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 BelarusUEFA Nations League
  • WA7-0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
  • LH0-1 MaltaWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LA0-4 NetherlandsWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • WH2-1 LithuaniaWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 4,4,3,7,0
Key players Arttu Hoskonen, Robert Ivanov, Glen Kamara
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
455454th09-07 v Greece: -4.009-10 v England: -3.010-10 v Rep. Of Ireland: -2.010-13 v England: -3.011-14 v Rep. Of Ireland: -2.011-17 v Greece: -3.0

Albania

Seasons UNL Elo 1510 (95 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
  • WH2-0 BelarusUEFA Nations League
  • LA1-2 PolandWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LH0-2 EnglandWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • WA1-0 AndorraWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 1,1,1,2,3
Key players Kristjan Asllani, Ardian Ismajli, Nedim Bajrami
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
153734th09-07 v Ukraine: +2.009-10 v Georgia: -2.010-11 v Czechia: -3.010-14 v Georgia: +2.011-16 v Czechia: +0.011-19 v Ukraine: -2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

1 27%
X 27%
2 46%
Prediction: England to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%
Match preview

The model makes England narrow favourites at 46%, with Croatia at 27% and the draw at 27%. Croatia have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 8 conceded). Watch Luka Modrić and Joško Gvardiol for Croatia, and Jordan Pickford for England.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Croatia

Seasons UNL Elo 1763 (126 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-4 SpainUEFA Nations League
  • WA2-1 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
  • LA1-2 PortugalWorld Cup
  • WH2-1 GhanaWorld Cup
  • WA1-0 PanamaWorld Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,3,3,3,5
Key players Luka Modrić, Joško Gvardiol, Josip Šutalo
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
184821st09-05 v Portugal: -2.009-08 v Poland: +2.010-12 v Scotland: +2.010-15 v Poland: +0.011-15 v Scotland: -2.011-18 v Portugal: +0.003-20 v France: +3.0

England

Seasons UNL Elo 1870 (135 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
  • LH2-3 SpainUEFA Nations League
  • WA6-4 FranceWorld Cup
  • LH1-2 ArgentinaWorld Cup
  • WA2-1 NorwayWorld Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,3,10,5,2
Key players Jordan Pickford
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
21911th09-07 v Rep. Of Ireland: +3.009-10 v Finland: +3.010-10 v Greece: -2.010-13 v Finland: +3.011-14 v Greece: +4.011-17 v Rep. Of Ireland: +6.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

1 91%
X 7%
2 1%
Prediction: Belarus to win (strong) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 58%
Match preview

The model makes Belarus clear favourites at 91%, with San Marino at 1% and the draw at 7%. San Marino have lost 4 straight (2 scored, 14 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 30%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 58%. Watch Kirill Pechenin and Pavel Zabelin for Belarus.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Belarus

draw merchants
Seasons UNL Elo 1422 (93 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 FinlandUEFA Nations League
  • LA0-2 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League
  • DH0-0 GreeceWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • DA2-2 DenmarkWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LA1-2 ScotlandWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 3,5,4,2,0
Key players Kirill Pechenin, Pavel Zabelin, Yevgeni Shikavka
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
63333rd09-05 v Bulgaria: +0.009-08 v Luxembourg: +2.010-12 v Northern Ireland: +0.010-15 v Luxembourg: +0.011-15 v Northern Ireland: -3.011-18 v Bulgaria: +0.0

San Marino

Seasons UNL Elo 1047 (83 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League
  • LH0-7 FinlandUEFA Nations League
  • LA1-7 RomaniaWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LH0-4 CyprusWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LA0-10 AustriaWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 0,3,3,7,3
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
64032nd09-05 v Liechtenstein: +2.010-10 v Gibraltar: -2.011-15 v Gibraltar: +0.011-18 v Liechtenstein: +3.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

1 64%
X 22%
2 13%
Prediction: Iceland to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
Match preview

The model makes Iceland clear favourites at 64%, with Bulgaria at 13% and the draw at 22%. Watch Orri Steinn Óskarsson and Andri Guðjohnsen for Iceland, and Kiril Despodov and Fabian Nürnberger for Bulgaria.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Iceland

Seasons UNL Elo 1495 (106 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
  • DH1-1 EstoniaUEFA Nations League
  • LA0-2 UkraineWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • WA2-0 AzerbaijanWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • DH2-2 FranceWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,1,3,2,3
Key players Orri Steinn Óskarsson, Andri Guðjohnsen, Jóhann Guðmundsson
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
43937th09-06 v Montenegro: +3.009-09 v Türkiye: -3.010-11 v Wales: +0.010-14 v Türkiye: -3.011-16 v Montenegro: +3.011-19 v Wales: -4.003-20 v Kosovo: -2.003-23 v Kosovo: -3.0

Bulgaria

Seasons UNL Elo 1387 (87 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 EstoniaUEFA Nations League
  • LH1-2 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
  • WH2-1 GeorgiaWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LA0-2 TürkiyeWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LA0-4 SpainWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,1,4,3,0
Key players Kiril Despodov, Fabian Nürnberger, Filip Krastev
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
73231st09-05 v Belarus: +0.009-08 v Northern Ireland: +2.010-12 v Luxembourg: +0.010-15 v Northern Ireland: -6.011-15 v Luxembourg: +2.011-18 v Belarus: +0.003-20 v Rep. Of Ireland: -2.003-23 v Rep. Of Ireland: -2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

🔥 v

1 93%
X 6%
2 1%
Prediction: Spain to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 62%
Match preview

The model makes Spain clear favourites at 93%, with Czechia at 1% and the draw at 6%. Spain are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 4 conceded). Czechia have lost 3 straight (3 scored, 10 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 62%. Watch Fabián Ruiz and Pedro Porro for Spain.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Spain🔥

Seasons UNL Elo 1997 (133 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
  • WA3-2 EnglandUEFA Nations League
  • WH1-0 ArgentinaWorld Cup
  • WA2-0 FranceWorld Cup
  • WH2-1 BelgiumWorld Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,0,5,5
Key players Fabián Ruiz, Pedro Porro, Martín Zubimendi
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
1301st09-05 v Serbia: +0.009-08 v Switzerland: +4.010-12 v Denmark: +2.010-15 v Serbia: +4.011-15 v Denmark: +2.011-18 v Switzerland: +2.003-20 v Netherlands: +0.006-05 v France: +2.0

Czechia

Seasons UNL Elo 1578 (108 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 EnglandUEFA Nations League
  • LH1-2 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
  • LH0-3 MexicoWorld Cup
  • DH1-1 South AfricaWorld Cup
  • LA1-2 South KoreaWorld Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,2,3,3,2
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
165022nd09-07 v Georgia: -4.009-10 v Ukraine: +2.010-11 v Albania: +3.010-14 v Ukraine: +0.011-16 v Albania: +0.011-19 v Georgia: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 41%
X 27%
2 32%
Prediction: Estonia to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 41%
Match preview

The model makes Estonia the marginal call at 41%, with Luxembourg at 32% and the draw at 27%. Luxembourg have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 5 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 41%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Vlasiy Sinyavskiy and Karol Mets for Estonia, and Danel Sinani and Seid Korać for Luxembourg.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Estonia

Seasons UNL Elo 1352 (88 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
  • DA1-1 IcelandUEFA Nations League
  • LA1-4 NorwayWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • DH1-1 MoldovaWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LH1-3 ItalyWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 2,5,6,2,0
Key players Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Karol Mets, Michael Schjonning-Larsen
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
365243rd09-05 v Slovakia: -2.009-08 v Sweden: -4.010-11 v Azerbaijan: +3.010-14 v Sweden: -4.011-16 v Azerbaijan: +0.011-19 v Slovakia: -2.0

Luxembourg

Seasons UNL Elo 1380 (91 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 IcelandUEFA Nations League
  • WA2-1 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
  • WH3-0 MaltaUEFA Nations League
  • WA2-0 MaltaUEFA Nations League
  • LA0-1 Northern IrelandWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,1,1,3,3
Key players Danel Sinani, Seid Korać, Dirk Carlson
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
295329th09-05 v Northern Ireland: -3.009-08 v Belarus: -2.010-12 v Bulgaria: +0.010-15 v Belarus: +0.011-15 v Bulgaria: -2.011-18 v Northern Ireland: +0.003-26 v Malta: +3.003-31 v Malta: +4.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

1 82%
X 13%
2 4%
Prediction: Switzerland to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 40%
Match preview

The model makes Switzerland clear favourites at 82%, with Slovenia at 4% and the draw at 13%. Switzerland are unbeaten in five (9 scored, 1 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 40%). Watch Remo Freuler and Granit Xhaka for Switzerland, and Benjamin Šeško and Erik Janža for Slovenia.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Switzerland

Seasons UNL Elo 1825 (120 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-0 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
  • WA3-0 FYR MacedoniaUEFA Nations League
  • LA1-3 ArgentinaWorld Cup
  • DH0-0 ColombiaWorld Cup
  • WH2-0 AlgeriaWorld Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 2,0,2,3,3
Key players Remo Freuler, Granit Xhaka, Ricardo Rodríguez
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
465448th09-05 v Denmark: -3.009-08 v Spain: -4.010-12 v Serbia: -3.010-15 v Denmark: +0.011-15 v Serbia: +0.011-18 v Spain: -2.0

Slovenia

Seasons UNL Elo 1577 (92 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 FYR MacedoniaUEFA Nations League
  • DH0-0 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
  • DA1-1 SwedenWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LH0-2 KosovoWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • DH0-0 SwitzerlandWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 5,2,3,0,2
Key players Benjamin Šeško, Erik Janža, Adam Gnezda Čerin
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
73130th09-06 v Austria: +0.009-09 v Kazakhstan: +4.010-10 v Norway: -4.010-13 v Kazakhstan: +2.011-14 v Norway: -4.011-17 v Austria: +0.003-20 v Slovakia: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 90volatile

v

1 27%
X 26%
2 47%
Prediction: Scotland to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%
Match preview

The model makes Scotland narrow favourites at 47%, with FYR Macedonia at 27% and the draw at 26%. FYR Macedonia have lost 3 straight (0 scored, 9 conceded). Watch Bojan Miovski and Enis Bardhi for FYR Macedonia, and Scott McTominay and Anthony Ralston for Scotland.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FYR Macedonia

Seasons UNL Elo 1498 (93 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 SloveniaUEFA Nations League
  • LH0-3 SwitzerlandUEFA Nations League
  • LA0-4 DenmarkWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • LA1-7 WalesWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
  • DH1-1 KazakhstanWorld Cup Qual. (Europe)
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,0,4,3,2
Key players Bojan Miovski, Enis Bardhi, Isnik Alimi
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
1319th09-07 v Faroe Islands: +0.009-10 v Armenia: +3.010-10 v Latvia: +4.010-13 v Armenia: +3.011-14 v Latvia: +2.011-17 v Faroe Islands: +2.0

Scotland

Seasons UNL Elo 1611 (99 internationals)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 SwitzerlandUEFA Nations League
  • DA0-0 SloveniaUEFA Nations League
  • LH0-3 BrazilWorld Cup
  • LH0-1 MoroccoWorld Cup
  • WA1-0 HaitiWorld Cup
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,1,3,0,3
Key players Scott McTominay, Anthony Ralston, Andrew Robertson
Season pulse last season (2024) · new season pending
245126th09-05 v Poland: -2.009-08 v Portugal: -2.010-12 v Croatia: -2.010-15 v Portugal: +0.011-15 v Croatia: +2.011-18 v Poland: +2.003-20 v Greece: +2.003-23 v Greece: -4.0