Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇹🇷 Süper Lig

league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (8th) v Kasımpaşa (10th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 40%
X 27%
2 33%
Prediction: Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 40%
vs performances: Gençlerbirliği S.K. +0.96 (4g) · Kasımpaşa +0.09 (3g)
Squad overlay · Gençlerbirliği S.K. stronger by 0.12, shifted the price by up to 1.0 pts
xG overlay · Kasımpaşa better on chances than on results by 0.17 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Gençlerbirliği S.K. the marginal call at 40%, with Kasımpaşa at 33% and the draw at 27%. Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 7 conceded). Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in five (6 scored, 4 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 40%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Dimitris Goutas 🇬🇷 and Franco Tongya 🇮🇹 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., and Mortadha Ben Ouanes 🇹🇳 and Andri Baldursson 🇮🇸 for Kasımpaşa.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: Ankara's historic club returned 25/26 and survived with feisty results (4-3 over Trabzonspor). · Kasımpaşa: Istanbul district side, perennial mid-lower finisher; survived 25/26 routinely.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (8th)

Ankara's historic club returned 25/26 and survived with feisty results (4-3 over Trabzonspor). Eryaman Stadium. Youth-development tradition. Second-season consolidation; lower-mid range.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 45.5 in league · 10th of 18
Seasons 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 8th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-5 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • DH1-1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • WA1-0 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • WH2-1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • WA3-0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,3,1,2,5
Key players İrfan Can Eğribayat 🇹🇷 73.3, Dimitris Goutas 🇬🇷 66.1, Kévin Rodrigues 🇵🇹 57.7, Tiago Gouveia 🇵🇹 56.9, Abdurrahim Dursun 🇹🇷 56.8
Nationalities 🇹🇷 13 · 🇳🇬 3 · 🇲🇱 3 · 🇵🇹 2 · 🇹🇷 2 · 🇧🇷 1 · +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
188th08-15 v Fenerbahçe: +1.108-23 v Göztepe: +1.808-28 v Erzurumspor FK: -0.109-06 v Trabzonspor: -6.0

Kasımpaşa (10th)

Istanbul district side, perennial mid-lower finisher; survived 25/26 routinely. Tiny Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium by the Golden Horn. High-scoring matches historically; 11th-15th projection.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 34.5 in league · 17th of 18
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 10th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 AmedSüper Lig
  • DA1-1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • WA1-0 Çorum FKSüper Lig
  • DH1-1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • WH1-0 GalatasaraySüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 1,2,1,2,4
Key players Adrian Benedyczak 🇵🇱 62.4, Cláudio Winck 🇧🇷 59.1, Adem Arous 🇹🇳 56.1, Ayberk Karapo 🇹🇷 54.5, Kerem Demirbay 🇩🇪 52.7
Nationalities 🇹🇷 13 · 🇹🇷 4 · 🇸🇳 2 · 🇹🇳 2 · 🇬🇷 1 · 🇬🇭 1 · +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
31010th08-15 v Trabzonspor: +0.508-22 v Çorum FK: +1.708-30 v Başakşehir: +0.409-06 v Amed: +0.0
league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Amed (6th) v Başakşehir (12th)

↓ Başakşehir TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -19
1 34%
X 27%
2 39%
Prediction: Başakşehir to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%
vs performances: Amed +0.27 (3g) · Başakşehir -0.14 (3g)
Squad overlay · Başakşehir stronger by 0.10, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Başakşehir the marginal call at 39%, with Amed at 34% and the draw at 27%. Watch Eldor Shomurodov 🇺🇿 and Deniz Turuc for Başakşehir.

Amed: Diyarbakir club promoted to the top flight - hugely symbolic for the Kurdish southeast; among the most intense home atmospheres in Turkey. · Başakşehir: Istanbul's corporate club, 2020 champions; 5th in 25/26 = Conference League again.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Amed (6th)

Diyarbakir club promoted to the top flight - hugely symbolic for the Kurdish southeast; among the most intense home atmospheres in Turkey. Newcomer quality gap real; survival-only, but home fixtures will be cauldrons opponents hate.

Squad quality 46.2 in league · 8th of 18
Seasons 2026 so far: 6th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • WH2-1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • LA0-2 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • WH3-0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • DA3-3 Iğdır FKTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYY match totals 3,2,3,4
Key players Dia Saba 69.3, Lumbardh Dellova 🇽🇰 67.8, Mehmet Yeşil 🇹🇷 65.3, David Robert Bates 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 59.5, Gift Orban 🇳🇬 56.1
Nationalities 🇹🇷 19 · 🇩🇪 2 · 🇫🇷 2 · 🇸🇳 2 · 🇮🇱 1 · 🇧🇷 1 · +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
1125th08-16 v Erzurumspor FK: +4.408-24 v Kocaelispor: -3.308-31 v Trabzonspor: +2.809-06 v Kasımpaşa: +0.0

Başakşehir (12th)

Istanbul's corporate club, 2020 champions; 5th in 25/26 = Conference League again. Tiny crowds (568 recorded away days aside) = minimal home edge. Europa/UECL regulars; top-6 operator without derby heat.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 55.0 in league · 5th of 18
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 12th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • DH1-1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • LA1-2 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • WH2-0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • LA0-2 Inter TurkuUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 3,2,3,2,5
Key players Muhammed Şengezer 🇹🇷 75.0, Christopher Operi 🇨🇮 67.4, Eldor Shomurodov 🇺🇿 65.1, Emin Bayram 🇹🇷 64.8, Yusuf Sarı 🇹🇷 62.3
Nationalities 🇹🇷 14 · 🇩🇪 3 · 🇵🇹 2 · 🇨🇮 2 · 🇺🇿 2 · 🇧🇦 1 · +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
21212th08-16 v Kocaelispor: +3.708-23 v Trabzonspor: -2.108-30 v Kasımpaşa: -0.409-04 v Galatasaray: -2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Galatasaray (1st) v Kocaelispor (3rd)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: GALATASARAY
1 75%
X 19%
2 6%
Prediction: Galatasaray to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
vs performances: Galatasaray -0.22 (3g) · Kocaelispor +1.04 (4g)
Squad overlay · Galatasaray stronger by 0.42, shifted the price by up to 2.2 pts
xG overlay · Kocaelispor better on chances than on results by 0.11 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Galatasaray clear favourites at 75%, with Kocaelispor at 6% and the draw at 19%. Galatasaray arrive on a 3-game winning run (12 scored, 7 conceded). Kocaelispor arrive on a 3-game winning run (5 scored, 4 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Galatasaray the stronger. Watch Victor Osimhen 🇳🇬 and Leroy Sane for Galatasaray, and Serdar Dursun 🇹🇷 for Kocaelispor.

Kocaelispor: Izmit club back among the elite; survived 25/26 (heavy defeats included).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Galatasaray (1st)

strong at home

Istanbul. Champions again - 26th title, four straight, with Osimhen and Sane headlining; but hammered 1-5 by Frankfurt and 0-4 by Liverpool in the UCL. RAMS Park 52k intimidation. Domestic juggernaut; Europe remains the unfinished business.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 80.7 in league · 1st of 18
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 Sporting CPUCL
  • WA3-2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • WH3-2 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • WA4-0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • DH2-2 Çorum FKSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,4,4,5,5
Key players Victor Osimhen 🇳🇬 82.4, Yunus Akgün 🇹🇷 72.8, Gabriel Sara 🇧🇷 72.2, Aleksey Batrakov 🇷🇺 71.8, Davinson Sánchez 🇨🇴 70.9
Nationalities 🇹🇷 18 · 🇹🇷 6 · 🇨🇴 3 · 🇩🇪 3 · 🇩🇰 2 · 🇪🇸 1 · +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
171st08-14 v Çorum FK: +1.108-21 v Erzurumspor FK: +6.008-29 v Göztepe: +3.009-04 v Başakşehir: +2.0

Kocaelispor (3rd)

Izmit club back among the elite; survived 25/26 (heavy defeats included). Fanatical fanbase, big city catchment. Second-season stabilisation; lower-mid target.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 43.1 in league · 11th of 18
Seasons 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 3rd (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • WA2-1 KonyasporSüper Lig
  • WH2-0 AmedSüper Lig
  • LA0-2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • LA0-1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 1,2,2,3,1
Key players Massadio Haïdara 🇲🇱 66.8, Matej Maglica 🇭🇷 59.1, Ahmet Oğuz 🇹🇷 58.6, Serhat Öztaşdelen 🇹🇷 57.9, Botond Balogh 🇭🇺 56.8
Nationalities 🇹🇷 16 · 🇹🇷 4 · 🇭🇷 2 · 🇲🇱 2 · 🇵🇱 2 · 🇦🇴 1 · +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
3173rd08-16 v Başakşehir: -3.708-24 v Amed: +3.308-29 v Konyaspor: +1.909-06 v Samsunspor: +1.9

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.