Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇹🇷 Süper Lig

league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Eyüpspor (16th) v Rizespor (11th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 38%
X 27%
2 35%
Prediction: Eyüpspor to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%
vs performances: Eyüpspor -0.03 (3g) · Rizespor -0.20 (4g)
Squad overlay · Rizespor stronger by 0.07, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
xG overlay · Rizespor better on chances than on results by 0.37 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Eyüpspor the marginal call at 38%, with Rizespor at 35% and the draw at 27%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Umut Bozok 🇹🇷 and Umut Meraş 🇹🇷 for Eyüpspor, and Qazim Laci and Ali Sowe 🇬🇲 for Rizespor.

Eyüpspor: Istanbul district club, second top-flight season; 25/26 survived despite a 5-1 mauling at Galatasaray. · Rizespor: Black Sea club, tea-country rain and passion; 25/26 was wild (won 5-2 vs Antalyaspor, lost 2-5 to Fener).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Eyüpspor (16th)

Istanbul district club, second top-flight season; 25/26 survived despite a 5-1 mauling at Galatasaray. Small ground, low profile. Second-season stabilisation; lower-mid projection.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 34.4 in league · 18th of 18
Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 16th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 Çorum FKSüper Lig
  • WH2-1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • LH0-1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • LA0-1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • DA3-3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 6,1,1,3,3
Key players Calegari 🇧🇷 64.1, Charles-Andre Raux Yao 🇫🇷 58.2, Zak Jules 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 57.7, Chandrel Massanga 🇨🇬 54.2, Simone Giordano 🇮🇹 52.3
Nationalities 🇹🇷 15 · 🇹🇷 4 · 🇧🇷 3 · 🇩🇪 2 · 🇸🇳 2 · 🇫🇷 2 · +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
141716th08-16 v Beşiktaş: -2.508-23 v Gaziantep FK: -2.308-30 v Alanyaspor: +2.409-06 v Çorum FK: -4.0

Rizespor (11th)

Black Sea club, tea-country rain and passion; 25/26 was wild (won 5-2 vs Antalyaspor, lost 2-5 to Fener). Yo-yo history. Overs-friendly profile; lower-mid projection.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 40.6 in league · 13th of 18
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 11th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • WA2-1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • LH0-2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • WA1-0 KonyasporSüper Lig
  • DH2-2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 4,1,2,3,1
Key players Qazim Laci 74.1, Loide Augusto 🇦🇴 57.6, Adedire Mebude 57.4, Emrecan Bulut 🇹🇷 55.2, Modibo Sagnan 🇫🇷 54.1
Nationalities 🇹🇷 13 · 🇹🇷 4 · 🇫🇷 2 · 🇧🇦 2 · 🇩🇪 1 · 🇭🇺 1 · +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
21311th08-15 v Konyaspor: +2.508-22 v Samsunspor: -2.308-29 v Gaziantep FK: +2.109-07 v Alanyaspor: -2.4
league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Samsunspor (13th) v Çorum FK (14th)

↓ Samsunspor TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -30↑ Çorum FK TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +20
1 51%
X 26%
2 23%
Prediction: Samsunspor to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 59%
vs performances: Samsunspor -0.08 (4g) · Çorum FK -0.47 (3g)
Squad overlay · Samsunspor stronger by 0.10, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Samsunspor narrow favourites at 51%, with Çorum FK at 23% and the draw at 26%. Both teams to score looks likely at 60%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 59%. Watch Marius Mouandilmadji 🇹🇩 and Antoine Makoumbou 🇨🇬 for Samsunspor.

Samsunspor: Black Sea force re-established: strong 25/26 after their 24/25 Europa League adventure. · Çorum FK: Central Anatolian club in the top flight for the first time in club history.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Samsunspor (13th)

Black Sea force re-established: strong 25/26 after their 24/25 Europa League adventure. New 33k stadium bounces. Well-coached, physical; top-6 dark horse.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 50.2 in league · 6th of 18
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 13th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • LH0-2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • WA2-0 RizesporSüper Lig
  • DH3-3 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • WH3-0 GöztepeSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNN match totals 3,6,2,2,1
Key players Marius Mouandilmadji 🇹🇩 65.6, Gabriele Guarino 🇮🇹 65.5, Celil Yüksel 🇹🇷 62.8, Elliot Watt 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 62.6, Elayis Tavsan 59.2
Nationalities 🇹🇷 15 · 🇬🇲 3 · 🇳🇱 3 · 🇹🇩 2 · 🇹🇷 2 · 🇨🇲 1 · +14 more
Season pulse season 2026
21313th08-17 v Göztepe: +0.408-22 v Rizespor: +2.308-30 v Fenerbahçe: -3.509-06 v Kocaelispor: -1.9

Çorum FK (14th)

Central Anatolian club in the top flight for the first time in club history. Small city, modest ground, winter cold. The league's rank outsider; survival would be a triumph.

Squad quality 41.4 in league · 12th of 18
Seasons 2026 so far: 14th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
  • LA2-6 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • LH0-1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • DA2-2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • WA2-0 Esenler EroksporTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYY match totals 4,1,8,3
Key players Fredy 🇦🇴 65.0, Hrvoje Smolčić 🇭🇷 61.0, Jesús Ramírez 59.3, Ylber Ramadani 🇦🇱 59.0, Cengiz Ünder 🇹🇷 57.8
Nationalities 🇹🇷 22 · 🇬🇭 2 · 🇵🇾 1 · 🇫🇷 1 · 🇳🇬 1 · 🇩🇪 1 · +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
21714th08-14 v Galatasaray: -1.108-22 v Kasımpaşa: -1.708-31 v Beşiktaş: -6.009-06 v Eyüpspor: +4.0
league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Alanyaspor (7th) v Göztepe (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↓ Göztepe TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -22
1 42%
X 27%
2 30%
Prediction: Alanyaspor to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 39%
vs performances: Alanyaspor +0.49 (4g) · Göztepe -1.03 (4g)
Squad overlay · Alanyaspor stronger by 0.10, shifted the price by up to 0.9 pts
xG overlay · Göztepe better on chances than on results by 0.79 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Alanyaspor narrow favourites at 42%, with Göztepe at 30% and the draw at 27%. Göztepe have lost 3 straight (7 scored, 14 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 39%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Guven Yalcin and Yusuf Ozdemir for Alanyaspor, and Juan 🇧🇷 and Heliton for Göztepe.

Alanyaspor: Mediterranean mid-table staple; 25/26 safe (5-0 over Kocaelispor the highlight). · Göztepe: Izmir club, well-run under foreign ownership; comfortable upper-mid 25/26.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Alanyaspor (7th)

Mediterranean mid-table staple; 25/26 safe (5-0 over Kocaelispor the highlight). Small Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium, intense summer heat late/early season. 9th-14th projection.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 46.0 in league · 9th of 18
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 7th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 RizesporSüper Lig
  • LA1-2 EyüpsporSüper Lig
  • WH1-0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • DA1-1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • LA1-2 Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 3,2,1,3,1
Key players Paulo Victor 🇧🇷 71.5, Florent Hadergjonaj 67.6, Nuno Lima 🇵🇹 60.5, Ümit Akdağ 🇷🇴 58.7, Bedirhan Özyurt 🇹🇷 57.2
Nationalities 🇹🇷 16 · 🇹🇷 6 · 🇧🇷 3 · 🇽🇰 2 · 🇵🇹 2 · 🇷🇴 2 · +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
3107th08-15 v Gaziantep FK: -0.008-23 v Beşiktaş: +1.908-30 v Eyüpspor: -2.409-07 v Rizespor: +2.4

Göztepe (17th)

draw merchantsFOREIGN CORE 67%

Izmir club, well-run under foreign ownership; comfortable upper-mid 25/26. Gursel Aksel Stadium is a compact fortress. Quietly one of the league's best-organised sides; top-8 with Europe-race upside.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 36.9 in league · 15th of 18
Seasons 2024: 8th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 17th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-4 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
  • LA2-3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • LH0-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
  • DA3-3 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • LA0-3 SamsunsporSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,6,1,5,6
Key players Arda Kurtulan 🇲🇰 64.0, Juan 🇧🇷 61.4, Efkan Bekiroğlu 🇩🇪 55.9, Allan 🇧🇷 55.0, Filip Krastev 🇧🇬 53.8
Nationalities 🇹🇷 10 · 🇧🇷 9 · 🇵🇱 1 · 🇩🇪 1 · 🇨🇲 1 · 🇹🇳 1 · +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
91717th08-17 v Samsunspor: -0.408-23 v Gençlerbirliği S.K.: -1.808-29 v Galatasaray: -3.009-07 v Gaziantep FK: -2.3
league draws 28% · chaos 52lively

Konyaspor (18th) v Trabzonspor (4th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: TRABZONSPOR↓ Trabzonspor TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -33
1 25%
X 25%
2 50%
Prediction: Trabzonspor to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%
vs performances: Konyaspor -0.95 (3g) · Trabzonspor +0.41 (4g)
Squad overlay · Trabzonspor stronger by 0.43, shifted the price by up to 3.6 pts
xG overlay · Konyaspor better on chances than on results by 0.71 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Trabzonspor narrow favourites at 50%, with Konyaspor at 25% and the draw at 25%. Konyaspor have lost 5 straight (4 scored, 10 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Trabzonspor the stronger. Watch Yhoan Andzouana 🇨🇬 and Jackson Muleka 🇨🇩 for Konyaspor, and Paul Onuachu 🇳🇬 and Ozan Tufan 🇹🇷 for Trabzonspor.

Konyaspor: Anatolian regular; survived a 12-game winless run in 25/26 - barely. · Trabzonspor: 3rd in 25/26 = Europa League; Onuachu joint top scorer (22).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Konyaspor (18th)

Anatolian regular; survived a 12-game winless run in 25/26 - barely. Konya Buyuksehir Stadium 42k when roused. Squad aging; relegation-battle candidate this time.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 36.2 in league · 16th of 18
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 18th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
  • LH1-2 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • LA2-4 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • LH0-1 RizesporSüper Lig
  • LA1-2 KayserisporSüper Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 3,1,6,3,1
Key players Chidozie Awaziem 🇳🇬 60.9, Enis Bardhi 🇲🇰 57.3, Bahadır Han Güngördü 🇹🇷 56.7, Ebrima Colley 🇬🇲 53.9, Deniz Türüç 🇹🇷 53.6
Nationalities 🇹🇷 15 · 🇧🇷 3 · 🇷🇸 2 · 🇳🇴 2 · 🇹🇷 2 · 🇩🇪 1 · +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
161818th08-15 v Rizespor: -2.508-22 v Fenerbahçe: -3.508-29 v Kocaelispor: -1.909-05 v Erzurumspor FK: -2.0

Trabzonspor (4th)

3rd in 25/26 = Europa League; Onuachu joint top scorer (22). Papara Park on the Black Sea = elite intimidation. 2022 champions; the only non-Istanbul big club. Title outsider, top-4 baseline.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 74.1 in league · 3rd of 18
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 7th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 4th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH5-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
  • LA1-2 AmedSüper Lig
  • LA0-4 Ferencvarosi TCUEL
  • WH2-1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • LH0-1 Ferencvarosi TCUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,2,3,3,5
Key players Mohamed Salah 🇪🇬 75.4, Chibuike Nwaiwu 🇳🇬 73.0, Aral Şimşir 🇹🇷 70.7, André Onana 🇨🇲 67.8🔥, Wagner Pina 🇵🇹 66.3
Nationalities 🇹🇷 15 · 🇳🇬 3 · 🇺🇦 3 · 🇹🇷 3 · 🇫🇷 2 · 🇧🇪 2 · +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
4134th08-15 v Kasımpaşa: -0.508-23 v Başakşehir: +2.108-31 v Amed: -2.809-06 v Gençlerbirliği S.K.: +6.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.