Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚬馃嚪 TFF 1. Lig

league draws 26% · chaos 36orderly

I臒d谋r FK (5th) v Mardin 1969 (4th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 51%
X 25%
2 23%
Prediction: I臒d谋r FK to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%
Squad overlay · I臒d谋r FK stronger by 0.20, shifted the price by up to 5.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes I臒d谋r FK narrow favourites at 51%, with Mardin 1969 at 23% and the draw at 25%. I臒d谋r FK arrive on a 3-game winning run (7 scored, 5 conceded). Mardin 1969 are unbeaten in five (9 scored, 3 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Gianni Bruno 馃嚙馃嚜 and G枚kcan Kaya 馃嚛馃嚢 for I臒d谋r FK.

Mardin 1969: South-eastern club (Mardin), remote setting and long travel for visitors; a second-tier newcomer, minnow profile.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

I臒d谋r FK (5th)

Igdir. Far-eastern club (I臒d谋r), remote and extreme away travel for visitors; a second-tier riser, minnow profile, ambitious.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 59.0 in league · 5th of 20
Seasons 2024: 8th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 5th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 陌stanbulsporTFF 1. Lig
  • WH4-2 Manisa F.K.TFF 1. Lig
  • WA1-0 Esenler EroksporTFF 1. Lig
  • LH0-1 KayserisporTFF 1. Lig
  • LA0-1 BursasporTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,1,1,6,3
Key players Jakub Szumski 馃嚨馃嚤 61.7, Dino Hoti膰 馃嚙馃嚘 55.6, Soner G枚n眉l 馃嚬馃嚪 50.8, Felix Afena-Gyan 馃嚞馃嚟 49.0, Giovanni Crociata 馃嚠馃嚬 45.3
Nationalities 馃嚬馃嚪 17 路 馃嚥馃嚢 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 馃嚞馃嚦 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
3145th08-09 v Fatih Karag眉mr眉k: +3.008-15 v Bursaspor: -2.008-22 v Kayserispor: -2.008-30 v Esenler Erokspor: +2.009-03 v Manisa F.K.: +3.009-07 v 陌stanbulspor: +2.0

Mardin 1969 (4th)

South-eastern club (Mardin), remote setting and long travel for visitors; a second-tier newcomer, minnow profile.

Squad quality 40.4 in league · 18th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 4th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 Bodrum FKTFF 1. Lig
  • DA2-2 SivassporTFF 1. Lig
  • DH1-1 Vanspor FKTFF 1. Lig
  • WA3-0 BolusporTFF 1. Lig
  • WH2-0 AntalyasporTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 2,3,2,4,1
Key players Zdravko Dimitrov 馃嚙馃嚞 58.2, Tonio Tekli膰 馃嚟馃嚪 49.3, Kerim Al谋c谋 馃嚬馃嚪 44.7, Erce Karde艧ler 馃嚬馃嚪 44.0, Olarenwaju Kayode 馃嚦馃嚞 42.3
Season pulse season 2026
2114th08-08 v 脺mraniyespor: +0.008-16 v Antalyaspor: +3.008-23 v Boluspor: +4.008-29 v Vanspor FK: +0.009-02 v Sivasspor: +0.009-07 v Bodrum FK: +2.0
league draws 26% · chaos 36orderly

Sivasspor (13th) v Mu臒laspor (9th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 46%
X 26%
2 27%
Prediction: Sivasspor to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 35%
Match preview

The model makes Sivasspor narrow favourites at 46%, with Mu臒laspor at 27% and the draw at 26%. Mu臒laspor are unbeaten in five (5 scored, 2 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 35%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Valon Ethemi 馃嚥馃嚢 and Murat Paluli 馃嚬馃嚪 for Sivasspor.

Sivasspor: Central-Anatolia club (Sivas), a former S眉per Lig fixture and European participant now down; the New 4 Eyl眉l Stadium. · Mu臒laspor: Aegean club (Mu臒la), modest ground; a lower-table second-tier newcomer, minnow, survival-focused.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sivasspor (13th)

Central-Anatolia club (Sivas), a former S眉per Lig fixture and European participant now down; the New 4 Eyl眉l Stadium. Well-organised, promotion the aim.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 50.1 in league · 14th of 20
Seasons 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 13th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 AntalyasporTFF 1. Lig
  • DH2-2 Mardin 1969TFF 1. Lig
  • LA1-2 Batman PetrolsporTFF 1. Lig
  • DH2-2 Manisa F.K.TFF 1. Lig
  • LA0-2 KayserisporTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,4,3,4,3
Key players Rey Manaj 馃嚘馃嚤 56.3, U臒ur 脟ift莽i 馃嚬馃嚪 50.1, Valon Ethemi 馃嚥馃嚢 50.0, Aaron Appindangoy茅 馃嚞馃嚘 46.2, Charis Charisis 馃嚞馃嚪 45.9
Nationalities 馃嚬馃嚪 19 路 馃嚬馃嚪 3 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
61813th08-08 v Esenler Erokspor: +0.008-16 v Kayserispor: -3.008-24 v Manisa F.K.: +0.008-29 v Batman Petrolspor: -2.009-02 v Mardin 1969: +0.009-06 v Antalyaspor: +2.0

Mu臒laspor (9th)

Aegean club (Mu臒la), modest ground; a lower-table second-tier newcomer, minnow, survival-focused.

Seasons 2026 so far: 9th (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 Vanspor FKTFF 1. Lig
  • WA1-0 脺mraniyesporTFF 1. Lig
  • WH2-0 BolusporTFF 1. Lig
  • DA0-0 Bodrum FKTFF 1. Lig
  • DH0-0 Band谋rmasporTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 0,0,2,1,4
Key players Selim Dilli 馃嚬馃嚪 50.3, Yi臒it Fidan 馃嚬馃嚪 49.1, Luis Mago 45.5, Daniel Avramovski 馃嚥馃嚢 43.8, Poyraz Efe Y谋ld谋r谋m 馃嚬馃嚪 41.2
Season pulse season 2026
8199th08-09 v Sar谋yer: -3.008-16 v Band谋rmaspor: +0.008-22 v Bodrum FK: +0.008-28 v Boluspor: +3.009-01 v 脺mraniyespor: +2.009-06 v Vanspor FK: +0.0
league draws 26% · chaos 36orderly

Bursaspor (2nd) v Esenler Erokspor (17th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ Bursaspor TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +21
1 34%
X 26%
2 39%
Prediction: Esenler Erokspor to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%↓1.0
Squad overlay · Esenler Erokspor stronger by 0.12, shifted the price by up to 3.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Esenler Erokspor the marginal call at 39%, with Bursaspor at 34% and the draw at 26%. Bursaspor arrive on a 3-game winning run (10 scored, 4 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Olarenwaju Kayode 馃嚦馃嚞 and Amilton da Silva for Esenler Erokspor.

Bursaspor: Fallen giant, 2010 Turkish champions with a vast fervent fanbase; the big Timsah Arena. · Esenler Erokspor: Istanbul club, a rapid modern riser backed by investment; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Bursaspor (2nd)

Fallen giant, 2010 Turkish champions with a vast fervent fanbase; the big Timsah Arena. Historic side stuck in the lower tiers, atmosphere far above the level.

Style Territorial control from 2021
Squad quality 54.0 in league · 9th of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 2nd (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Manisa F.K.TFF 1. Lig
  • WH4-0 陌stanbulsporTFF 1. Lig
  • WA2-1 KayserisporTFF 1. Lig
  • LA1-2 Fatih Karag眉mr眉kTFF 1. Lig
  • WH1-0 I臒d谋r FKTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,3,3,4,3
Key players Kelechi Iheanacho 59.9, Juergen Elitim 馃嚚馃嚧 58.7, Lincoln 馃嚙馃嚪 51.7, Taha Batuhan Yayikci 49.9, Z. Yavru 馃嚬馃嚪 48.1
Season pulse season 2026
272nd08-09 v Bodrum FK: +3.008-15 v I臒d谋r FK: +2.008-21 v Fatih Karag眉mr眉k: -2.008-29 v Kayserispor: +2.009-03 v 陌stanbulspor: +5.009-07 v Manisa F.K.: +2.0

Esenler Erokspor (17th)

strong away

Istanbul club, a rapid modern riser backed by investment; small ground. Ambitious newcomer, results volatile.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 65.1 in league · 2nd of 20
Seasons 2024: 12th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 17th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 KayserisporTFF 1. Lig
  • DA0-0 Bodrum FKTFF 1. Lig
  • LH0-1 I臒d谋r FKTFF 1. Lig
  • DA1-1 脺mraniyesporTFF 1. Lig
  • DH1-1 Sar谋yerTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,2,1,0,3
Key players Gu茅lor Kanga 馃嚞馃嚘 66.6, Onur Ulas 52.9, Luccas Claro 馃嚙馃嚪 51.8, Bahad谋r 脰zt眉rk 馃嚬馃嚪 49.5, Dimitri Cavar茅 馃嚞馃嚨 47.7
Nationalities 馃嚬馃嚪 19 路 馃嚞馃嚨 1 路 馃嚞馃嚘 1 路 馃嚚馃嚞 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
41717th08-08 v Sivasspor: +0.008-14 v Sar谋yer: +0.008-22 v 脺mraniyespor: +0.008-30 v I臒d谋r FK: -2.009-03 v Bodrum FK: +0.009-07 v Kayserispor: -4.0
league draws 26% · chaos 36orderly

Fatih Karag眉mr眉k (11th) v Manisa F.K. (10th)

1 46%
X 26%
2 28%
Prediction: Fatih Karag眉mr眉k to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 61%
Squad overlay · Manisa F.K. stronger by 0.12, shifted the price by up to 3.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes Fatih Karag眉mr眉k narrow favourites at 46%, with Manisa F.K. at 28% and the draw at 26%. Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. Watch Lo茂s Diony 馃嚝馃嚪 and Jonathan Lindseth 馃嚦馃嚧 for Manisa F.K..

Fatih Karag眉mr眉k: Istanbul club, foreign-flavoured under ambitious ownership; groundshare. · Manisa F.K.: Aegean club (Manisa), a modern riser; small ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Fatih Karag眉mr眉k (11th)

Istanbul club, foreign-flavoured under ambitious ownership; groundshare. Recently in the S眉per Lig, cosmopolitan squad, yo-yo profile.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2024
Squad quality 48.6 in league · 16th of 20
Seasons 2024: 3rd | 2026 so far: 11th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA3-4 Batman PetrolsporTFF 1. Lig
  • DH1-1 KayserisporTFF 1. Lig
  • DA1-1 陌stanbulsporTFF 1. Lig
  • WH2-1 BursasporTFF 1. Lig
  • WH2-1 脺mraniyesporTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,3,2,2,7
Key players At谋n莽 Nukan 馃嚬馃嚪 57.2, Robin Yal莽谋n 馃嚛馃嚜 56.8, Davide Biraschi 馃嚠馃嚬 52.6, Dorukhan Tok枚z 馃嚬馃嚪 43.8, Ahmed Traore 42.3
Nationalities 馃嚬馃嚪 12 路 馃嚬馃嚪 7 路 馃嚡馃嚥 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚚馃嚠 2 路 +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
41711th08-09 v I臒d谋r FK: -3.008-15 v 脺mraniyespor: +2.008-21 v Bursaspor: +2.008-29 v 陌stanbulspor: +0.009-02 v Kayserispor: +0.009-06 v Batman Petrolspor: -2.0

Manisa F.K. (10th)

Aegean club (Manisa), a modern riser; small ground. Ambitious second-tier side, develops talent, promotion-minded.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 59.8 in league · 3rd of 20
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 16th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 10th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 BursasporTFF 1. Lig
  • LA2-4 I臒d谋r FKTFF 1. Lig
  • DH0-0 Bodrum FKTFF 1. Lig
  • DA2-2 SivassporTFF 1. Lig
  • WH4-1 Vanspor FKTFF 1. Lig
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,4,0,6,3
Key players Julien Anziani 馃嚝馃嚪 55.9, Yassine Benrahou 馃嚥馃嚘 54.7, Cheikne Sylla 馃嚥馃嚤 54.6, Lo茂s Diony 馃嚝馃嚪 53.4, Vedat Karaku艧 馃嚬馃嚪 51.2
Nationalities 馃嚬馃嚪 23 路 馃嚦馃嚧 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚤 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚥馃嚩 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
11010th08-07 v Boluspor: +2.008-15 v Vanspor FK: +4.008-24 v Sivasspor: +0.008-30 v Bodrum FK: +0.009-03 v I臒d谋r FK: -3.009-07 v Bursaspor: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.