Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚚馃嚟 Swiss Super League

league draws 24% · chaos 92volatile

FC Lugano (1st)🔥 v FC ST. Gallen (5th)

1 52%
X 26%
2 22%
Prediction: FC Lugano to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%
vs performances: FC Lugano +1.32 (4g) · FC ST. Gallen -0.40 (5g)
Squad overlay · FC Lugano stronger by 0.27, shifted the price by up to 1.6 pts
xG overlay · FC ST. Gallen better on chances than on results by 0.96 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
Match preview

The model makes FC Lugano narrow favourites at 52%, with FC ST. Gallen at 22% and the draw at 26%. FC Lugano are unbeaten in five (13 scored, 4 conceded). Watch R. Steffen 馃嚚馃嚟 and A. Grgi膰 馃嚚馃嚟 for FC Lugano, and Alessandro Vogt 馃嚚馃嚟 and Lukas G枚rtler 馃嚛馃嚜 for FC ST. Gallen.

FC Lugano: Italian-Swiss club (Lugano/Ticino), European regular and cup winner; Cornaredo (redevelopment era). · FC ST. Gallen: Eastern-Swiss club, big passionate fanbase; Kybunpark, best atmosphere in Switzerland.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC Lugano (1st)🔥

Italian-Swiss club (Lugano/Ticino), European regular and cup winner; Cornaredo (redevelopment era). UECL entrant; top-6 Swiss side.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 75.5 in league · 1st of 13
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 4th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 1st (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 BSC Young BoysSwiss Super League
  • WA3-1 FC Basel 1893Swiss Super League
  • WH1-0 Servette FCSwiss Super League
  • WA2-1 FC SionSwiss Super League
  • DA1-1 Maccabi Tel AvivUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,3,1,4,4
Key players Anto Grgi膰 馃嚚馃嚟 69.1, Hannes Delcroix 馃嚙馃嚜 66.8, Lars Lukas Mai 馃嚛馃嚜 66.0, Kevin Behrens 馃嚛馃嚜 65.4, Renato Steffen 馃嚚馃嚟 63.0
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚟 14 路 馃嚛馃嚜 4 路 馃嚠馃嚬 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 +13 more
Season pulse season 2026
141st07-26 v FC Vaduz: +2.708-02 v Grasshoppers: +4.208-09 v FC Zurich: +6.008-30 v FC Sion: +1.409-03 v Servette FC: +2.009-06 v FC Basel 1893: +3.009-12 v BSC Young Boys: +0.0

FC ST. Gallen (5th)

FOREIGN CORE 71%

Eastern-Swiss club, big passionate fanbase; Kybunpark, best atmosphere in Switzerland. 2nd in the 25/26 Super League for a UEL spot; attacking identity, Alessandro Vogt the top scorer.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 47.2 in league · 7th of 13
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 5th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 FC SionSwiss Super League
  • WA2-0 Servette FCSwiss Super League
  • LA0-2 GrasshoppersSwiss Super League
  • LH3-4 FC ThunSwiss Super League
  • LH2-3 FC NordsjaellandUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 4,7,2,2,3
Key players Lukas G枚rtler 馃嚛馃嚜 65.5, Andrin Hunziker 馃嚚馃嚟 56.9, Aliou Balde 馃嚫馃嚦 56.2, Lukas Daschner 馃嚛馃嚜 55.9, Chima Okoroji 馃嚛馃嚜 53.7
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚟 10 路 馃嚛馃嚜 9 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚟馃嚪 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 2 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
365th07-26 v FC Zurich: +2.308-02 v FC Vaduz: +2.108-09 v FC Luzern: +1.008-30 v FC Thun: -1.209-02 v Grasshoppers: -3.209-06 v Servette FC: +3.009-12 v FC Sion: -4.0
league draws 24% · chaos 92volatile

FC Thun (10th) v Servette FC (9th)

1 40%
X 26%
2 33%
Prediction: FC Thun to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 68%
vs performances: FC Thun +0.83 (4g) · Servette FC -0.51 (4g)
Squad overlay · Servette FC stronger by 0.13, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
xG overlay · Servette FC better on chances than on results by 0.51 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes FC Thun the marginal call at 40%, with Servette FC at 33% and the draw at 26%. Both teams to score looks likely at 67%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 68%. Watch L. Bertone 馃嚚馃嚟 and E. Rastoder 馃嚚馃嚟 for FC Thun, and M. Stevanovi膰 馃嚙馃嚘 and J. Kadile 馃嚝馃嚪 for Servette FC.

FC Thun: Bernese Oberland club (Thun) enjoying a remarkable rise into the Champions League route - a breakthrough for the modest Stockhorn Arena side. · Servette FC: Geneva's historic club, European regular; Stade de Gen猫ve.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC Thun (10th)

Bernese Oberland club (Thun) enjoying a remarkable rise into the Champions League route - a breakthrough for the modest Stockhorn Arena side. Overachiever; Alpine setting.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 40.4 in league · 10th of 13
Seasons 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 10th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 GrasshoppersSwiss Super League
  • LA2-3 FC SionSwiss Super League
  • DH0-0 LausanneSwiss Super League
  • WA4-3 FC ST. GallenSwiss Super League
  • DH2-2 Lech PoznanUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 6,7,0,5,1
Key players Gen铆s Montolio 馃嚜馃嚫 61.1, Furkan Dursun 馃嚘馃嚬 59.1, Jan Bamert 馃嚚馃嚟 54.8, Nico Maier 馃嚚馃嚟 51.3, Nicolas B眉rgy 馃嚚馃嚟 50.8
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚟 23 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚜馃嚜 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
11010th07-25 v FC Luzern: +2.608-01 v BSC Young Boys: -6.008-09 v FC Basel 1893: -3.208-30 v FC ST. Gallen: +1.209-02 v Lausanne: +0.009-06 v FC Sion: -2.009-12 v Grasshoppers: -2.0

Servette FC (9th)

Geneva's historic club, European regular; Stade de Gen猫ve. Predicted qualifier; top-4 Swiss side, develops and sells.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 54.0 in league · 5th of 13
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 9th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 LausanneSwiss Super League
  • LH0-2 FC ST. GallenSwiss Super League
  • LA0-1 FC LuganoSwiss Super League
  • DH1-1 FC LuzernSwiss Super League
  • WH2-1 GrasshoppersSwiss Super League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 3,2,1,2,1
Key players Junior Kadile 馃嚝馃嚪 67.3, Timoth茅 Cognat 馃嚝馃嚪 61.9, Steve Rouiller 馃嚚馃嚟 59.5, Marco Burch 馃嚚馃嚟 57.2, Bradley Mazikou 馃嚚馃嚞 55.2
Nationalities 馃嚚馃嚟 17 路 馃嚝馃嚪 10 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 馃嚬馃嚦 1 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 馃嚚馃嚞 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
7129th07-25 v FC Basel 1893: -2.308-01 v FC Zurich: -2.008-08 v Grasshoppers: +2.508-29 v FC Luzern: +0.109-03 v FC Lugano: -2.009-06 v FC ST. Gallen: -3.009-13 v Lausanne: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.