Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 1 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇸🇪 Allsvenskan

league draws 23% · chaos 95volatile

AIK (7th) v Mjallby (12th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 40%
X 26%
2 35%
Prediction: AIK to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 46%
Match preview

The model makes AIK the marginal call at 40%, with Mjallby at 35% and the draw at 26%. AIK have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 10 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Ioannis Pittas 🇨🇾 and Anton Saletros for AIK, and Jacob Bergstrom and Elliot Stroud 🇸🇪 for Mjallby.

AIK: Stockholm giant, huge crowds at 50k Nationalarenan (47k derby vs Hammarby).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

AIK (7th)

Stockholm giant, huge crowds at 50k Nationalarenan (47k derby vs Hammarby). Underachieving since 2018 title. 2025: mid-table. 2026: rebuilt squad, top-half but not title pace. Derby volatility is a predictor factor; strong defensively at home.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 47.9 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 7th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-4 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • DA0-0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • WH3-2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • WA3-1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • WA4-3 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 7,4,5,0,5
Key players Linus Carlstrand 🇸🇪 57.0, Herve Matthys 🇧🇪 42.3, Stanley Wilson 🇰🇪 42.3, Kristoffer Nordfeldt 🇸🇪 41.3, Ibrahim Cissé 🇨🇮 40.2

Mjallby (12th)

Solvesborg. Fairytale: fishing-village club (pop ~800, 7.5k Strandvallen) won a first-ever 2025 title with record points, plus the 25/26 cup double. Now in 26/27 UCL qualifiers under new coach Aksum. Elite defensive structure; title retention historically rare.

Style Patient but blunt from 2026
Squad quality 33.3 in league · 15th of 16
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 12th (21 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 BK HackenAllsvenskan
  • LH1-4 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • LH0-2 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • LA0-4 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
  • LA0-3 Red Bull SalzburgUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 7,4,2,5,2
Key players Áki Samuelsen 🇫🇴 45.5, Axel Norén 🇸🇪 41.1, Olle Lindberg 🇸🇪 40.5, Robin Wallinder 🇸🇪 39.8, Jacob Bergström 🇸🇪 38.4

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.