Daily Football Model

2026-09-16 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

← all leagues

馃寧 Copa Sudamericana

league draws 32% · chaos 21orderly

Sao Paulo v Boca Juniors🔥

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 29%
2 24%
Prediction: Sao Paulo to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 25%
vs performances: Sao Paulo +0.51 (8g) · Boca Juniors +0.54 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes Sao Paulo narrow favourites at 47%, with Boca Juniors at 24% and the draw at 29%. Boca Juniors arrive on a 3-game winning run (9 scored, 1 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 33%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 25%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Rafael 馃嚙馃嚪 for Sao Paulo.

Sao Paulo: S茫o Paulo giant, multiple champions and 2005 world champions; Morumbi. · Boca Juniors: Buenos Aires giant, one of the world's biggest clubs with a vast fanbase; the iconic, intense Bombonera, the Supercl谩sico with River.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sao Paulo

strong at home

S茫o Paulo giant, multiple champions and 2005 world champions; Morumbi. Big fanbase, well-run.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 PalmeirasBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-1 Boca JuniorsSudamericana
  • WH2-0 Atletico-MGBrasileir茫o
  • WH2-1 RB BragantinoBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-1 Chapecoense-scBrasileir茫o
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,2,2,4,1
Key players Sabino 馃嚙馃嚪 66.6, Luciano 馃嚙馃嚪 59.6, Marcos Ant么nio 馃嚙馃嚪 58.8, Domingos Duarte 馃嚨馃嚬 57.7, Lucas Ramon 馃嚙馃嚪 53.0
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 21 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1
Season pulse season 2026
11310th05-23 v Botafogo: +0.405-31 v Remo: -1.907-23 v Atletico Paranaense: -2.407-26 v Flamengo: -0.808-08 v Gremio: -2.108-16 v Coritiba: +0.008-23 v Chapecoense-sc: -1.708-29 v RB Bragantino: +2.409-05 v Atletico-MG: +3.009-12 v Palmeiras: -3.0

Boca Juniors🔥

Buenos Aires giant, one of the world's biggest clubs with a vast fanbase; the iconic, intense Bombonera, the Supercl谩sico with River. Deep squad, Libertadores pedigree.

Style Frugal finishers from 2026
Squad quality 50.5 all Europe · Liga Profesional
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional
  • WH1-0 Sao PauloSudamericana
  • DA2-2 Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional
  • WH1-0 LanusLiga Profesional
  • DA1-1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 1,0,4,4,1
Key players Sebasti谩n Villa 馃嚚馃嚧 68.2, Lautaro Blanco 馃嚘馃嚪 58.0, Tomas Aranda 馃嚘馃嚪 52.6, Adam Bareiro 馃嚨馃嚲 52.6, Santiago Ascac铆bar 馃嚘馃嚪 52.0
Nationalities 馃嚘馃嚪 18 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
2178th05-02 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +2.007-26 v Deportivo Riestra: -4.708-02 v Newells Old Boys: +0.508-05 v Estudiantes L.P.: +2.208-08 v Velez Sarsfield: +0.608-16 v Platense: +0.008-24 v Racing Club: -0.208-29 v Lanus: +2.109-05 v Gimnasia M.: +0.009-12 v Central Cordoba de Santiago: +3.0
league draws 32% · chaos 21orderly
next day · Thursday

Atletico-MG v Santos🔥

1 46%
X 29%
2 25%
Prediction: Atletico-MG to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%
vs performances: Atletico-MG +0.51 (8g) · Santos -0.27 (9g)
xG overlay · Santos better on chances than on results by 1.10 goals, shifted the price by up to 4.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Atletico-MG narrow favourites at 46%, with Santos at 25% and the draw at 29%. Atletico-MG have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 4 conceded). Santos are unbeaten in five (12 scored, 4 conceded). Watch Renan Lodi 馃嚙馃嚪 and Ruan 馃嚙馃嚪 for Atletico-MG, and Gabriel Barbosa 馃嚙馃嚪 and Gabriel Bontempo 馃嚙馃嚪 for Santos.

Atletico-MG: Belo Horizonte giant (Galo), 2021 champions with a huge fanbase; the new Arena MRV. · Santos: Coastal club (Pel茅 and Neymar's), a famed academy; the tight old Vila Belmiro.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Atletico-MG

strong at home

Belo Horizonte giant (Galo), 2021 champions with a huge fanbase; the new Arena MRV. Big spender, perennial Libertadores contender.

Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 FluminenseBrasileir茫o
  • LA0-2 SantosSudamericana
  • LA0-2 Sao PauloBrasileir茫o
  • WH2-1 VitoriaBrasileir茫o
  • DA0-0 InternacionalBrasileir茫o
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,1,1,4,2
Key players Everson 馃嚙馃嚪 74.4, Ruan 馃嚙馃嚪 57.4, Junior Alonso 馃嚨馃嚲 57.1, 脕ngelo Preciado 54.6, Renan Lodi 馃嚙馃嚪 54.6
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 35 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚜馃嚚 3 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1
Season pulse season 2026
7177th05-24 v Corinthians: -1.405-31 v Vasco DA Gama: +1.607-21 v Bahia: +0.007-26 v Palmeiras: +2.108-08 v Remo: +0.208-16 v Gremio: +5.008-22 v Internacional: +0.008-29 v Vitoria: +2.409-05 v Sao Paulo: -3.009-12 v Fluminense: +3.0

Santos🔥

draw merchants

Coastal club (Pel茅 and Neymar's), a famed academy; the tight old Vila Belmiro. Recently yo-yo, in a Neymar-return era.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2026
Squad quality 60.3 all Europe · Brasileir茫o
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 CruzeiroBrasileir茫o
  • WH2-0 Atletico-MGSudamericana
  • WA3-2 InternacionalBrasileir茫o
  • WA1-0 CorinthiansBrasileir茫o
  • DH1-1 MirassolBrasileir茫o
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 5,6,3,0,2
Key players Neymar 馃嚙馃嚪 79.7, Benjam铆n Rollheiser 馃嚘馃嚪 66.3, Willian Ar茫o 馃嚙馃嚪 65.6, Arthur 馃嚙馃嚪 65.0, Christian Oliva 馃嚭馃嚲 63.9
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 20 路 馃嚘馃嚪 5 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚪馃嚭 1 路 馃嚙馃嚧 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
122012th05-23 v Gremio: -2.305-30 v Vitoria: +2.807-16 v Botafogo: -1.907-25 v Chapecoense-sc: +0.408-09 v Atletico Paranaense: -2.908-16 v Vasco DA Gama: +4.408-23 v Mirassol: +0.508-30 v Corinthians: +2.109-06 v Internacional: +2.009-13 v Cruzeiro: +2.0