Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚜馃嚫 Segunda Divisi贸n

league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Sporting Gijon (11th) v Eldense (20th)

1 54%
X 29%
2 17%
Prediction: Sporting Gijon to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 46%↑0.6
Match preview

The model makes Sporting Gijon narrow favourites at 54%, with Eldense at 17% and the draw at 29%. Sporting Gijon have won 3 of their last five (4 scored, 3 conceded). Watch Juan Otero 馃嚚馃嚧 and Jonathan Dubasin 馃嚙馃嚜 for Sporting Gijon, and V铆ctor Garc铆a 馃嚜馃嚫 and Marc Mateu for Eldense.

Sporting Gijon: Asturian giant, huge fervent El Molin贸n support and a fierce Oviedo derby; historic La Liga club long stuck in the Segunda.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sporting Gijon (11th)

Asturian giant, huge fervent El Molin贸n support and a fierce Oviedo derby; historic La Liga club long stuck in the Segunda. Sleeping giant, big crowds for the level.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 49.7 in league · 12th of 18
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 11th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 GironaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 TenerifeSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 BurgosSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 SabadellSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA2-1 Granada CFSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 3,0,1,1,2
Key players Juan Otero 馃嚚馃嚧 66.9, Pablo V谩zquez 馃嚜馃嚫 65.3, Guille Rosas 馃嚜馃嚫 56.8, 脕lex Corredera 馃嚜馃嚫 55.0, Eric Curbelo 馃嚜馃嚫 51.5
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 21 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 馃嚚馃嚭 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
11511th08-17 v Sabadell: +0.008-23 v Burgos: +2.008-28 v Tenerife: +2.009-05 v Girona: -3.0

Eldense (20th)

Elda. Alicante club (Deportivo Eldense), small Nuevo Pepico Amat; modest Segunda side, survival-focused, tight budget.

Seasons 2023: 16th | 2024: 19th | 2026 so far: 20th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 MallorcaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 LeganesSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH2-2 CadizSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-3 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA2-3 HuescaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 5,3,4,1,0
Key players Ramon Vila 56.0, Manuel Nieto 馃嚜馃嚫 46.6, Javi Mart铆nez 馃嚜馃嚫 46.3, Juan Palomares 41.5, Floris Smand 馃嚦馃嚤 41.2
Season pulse season 2026
182120th08-17 v Almeria: -4.008-22 v Cadiz: +0.008-29 v Leganes: -2.009-05 v Mallorca: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Valladolid (16th) v Oviedo (14th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 35%
X 31%
2 34%
Prediction: Valladolid to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 28%↓0.9
Squad overlay · Oviedo stronger by 0.13, shifted the price by up to 0.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Valladolid the marginal call at 35%, with Oviedo at 34% and the draw at 31%. The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 36%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 28%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Chuky and Juanmi Latasa 馃嚜馃嚫 for Valladolid, and Alem茫o 馃嚙馃嚪 and Dani Calvo 馃嚜馃嚫 for Oviedo.

Valladolid: Castile club (Pucela), Ronaldo-owned in recent years; Zorrilla. · Oviedo: Asturian giant (Real Oviedo), vast loyal fanbase at the Carlos Tartiere; historic club long chasing a top-flight return, atmosphere well above the level.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Valladolid (16th)

Castile club (Pucela), Ronaldo-owned in recent years; Zorrilla. A La Liga side of recent vintage now down, rebuilding toward a return.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 39.5 in league · 14th of 18
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2025: 17th | 2026 so far: 16th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 FC AndorraSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 CadizSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 EibarSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-2 MallorcaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 1,2,1,2,1
Key players Iv谩n Alejo 馃嚜馃嚫 53.9, Yeray Cabanzon 52.2, Carlos Clerc 馃嚜馃嚫 50.7, David Torres 馃嚜馃嚫 49.0, Julien Ponceau 馃嚝馃嚪 47.0
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 22 路 馃嚟馃嚪 2 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
152116th08-15 v Mallorca: -3.208-23 v Eibar: -2.008-30 v Cadiz: +0.009-05 v FC Andorra: +2.0

Oviedo (14th)

Asturian giant (Real Oviedo), vast loyal fanbase at the Carlos Tartiere; historic club long chasing a top-flight return, atmosphere well above the level.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2024
Squad quality 59.6 in league · 5th of 18
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 2nd | 2026 so far: 14th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 BurgosSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 AlbaceteSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 LeganesSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 Granada CFSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-3 MallorcaLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 4,0,1,1,0
Key players Dani Calvo 馃嚜馃嚫 60.9, Aar贸n Escandell 馃嚜馃嚫 60.1, David Costas 馃嚜馃嚫 56.7, Pablo S谩enz 馃嚜馃嚫 55.9, Estanis Pedrola 51.1
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 17 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
71814th08-15 v Granada CF: +0.008-22 v Leganes: -2.008-29 v Albacete: +2.009-06 v Burgos: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Mallorca (7th) v Sabadell (4th)

↓ Mallorca TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -54
1 54%
X 29%
2 17%
Prediction: Mallorca to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 36%
Match preview

The model makes Mallorca narrow favourites at 54%, with Sabadell at 17% and the draw at 29%. Sabadell are unbeaten in five (6 scored, 2 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 36%).

Sabadell: Catalan club, historic Nova Creu Alta support; yo-yo Segunda/lower side, modest budget, loyal following.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Mallorca (7th)

strong at home

Palma. Balearic club, Son Moix; island travel a quirk for visitors. A long-running La Liga side of recent vintage, big-island support, promotion the aim if down.

Style Frugal finishers from 2020
Squad quality 63.9 in league · 4th of 18
Seasons 2026 so far: 7th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 EldenseSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH3-0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-2 Granada CFSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH2-0 ValladolidSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH3-0 OviedoLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 4,2,2,3,0
Key players Antonio Ra铆llo 66.1, Arnau Tenas 馃嚜馃嚫 55.7, Sergi Darder 55.0, Martin Valjent 馃嚫馃嚢 53.7, Pablo Torre 馃嚜馃嚫 53.6
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 19 路 馃嚫馃嚢 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
2157th08-15 v Valladolid: +3.208-24 v Granada CF: -3.008-30 v AD Ceuta FC: +4.009-05 v Eldense: +0.0

Sabadell (4th)

Catalan club, historic Nova Creu Alta support; yo-yo Segunda/lower side, modest budget, loyal following.

Seasons 2026 so far: 4th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 CordobaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 Castell贸nSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 Sporting GijonSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA2-0 MirandesSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,0,0,1,5
Key players Nicholas Gioacchini 馃嚭馃嚫 53.4, Ton Ripoll 46.2, Edgar Gonz谩lez 馃嚜馃嚫 40.0, Pere Pons 馃嚜馃嚫 36.0, Diego Fuoli 35.6
Season pulse season 2026
4164th08-17 v Sporting Gijon: +0.008-23 v Castell贸n: +0.008-29 v Almeria: +2.009-07 v Cordoba: +2.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Tenerife (8th) v Leganes (3rd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 41%
X 31%
2 28%
Prediction: Tenerife to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 36%
Match preview

The model makes Tenerife the marginal call at 41%, with Leganes at 28% and the draw at 31%. Leganes are unbeaten in five (4 scored, 1 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 36%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Youssouf Diarra 馃嚥馃嚤 and Luismi Cruz 馃嚜馃嚫 for Tenerife, and Amadou Diawara 馃嚞馃嚦 and Juan Cruz 馃嚜馃嚫 for Leganes.

Leganes: Madrid-suburb club (los Pepineros), tiny Butarque; a La Liga side in recent seasons, now down.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Tenerife (8th)

Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Canary Islands club, Heliodoro Rodr铆guez L贸pez; island travel a quirk. Historic side yo-yoing in the lower reaches, passionate support.

Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 20th | 2026 so far: 8th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 Real Sociedad IISegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 Sporting GijonSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA3-1 EibarSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-2 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNN match totals 2,4,1,1,2
Key players Nacho Gil 馃嚚馃嚧 51.7, David Rodr铆guez Ramos 馃嚨馃嚲 49.5, Enric Gallego 47.2, Jos茅 Le贸n 馃嚚馃嚤 44.6, Jorge Moreno 馃嚜馃嚫 44.5
Season pulse season 2026
288th08-16 v Eibar: +3.008-23 v Almeria: +2.008-28 v Sporting Gijon: -2.009-05 v Real Sociedad II: +0.0

Leganes (3rd)

Madrid-suburb club (los Pepineros), tiny Butarque; a La Liga side in recent seasons, now down. Overachiever on a modest budget, well-run.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 64.2 in league · 3rd of 18
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 3rd (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Las PalmasSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 EldenseSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 OviedoSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 GironaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH1-0 MirandesSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 1,2,1,1,0
Key players Marvel 馃嚜馃嚫 56.9, Lalo Aguilar 馃嚜馃嚫 54.6, Francisco Montero 52.3, Unax del Cura 52.1, Luca Zidane 馃嚝馃嚪 51.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 21 路 馃嚞馃嚦 2 路 馃嚚馃嚮 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚥馃嚪 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
1123rd08-16 v Girona: +0.008-22 v Oviedo: +2.008-29 v Eldense: +2.009-04 v Las Palmas: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.