Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚜馃嚫 Segunda Divisi贸n

league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

FC Andorra (17th) v Real Sociedad II (13th)

1 50%
X 30%
2 21%
Prediction: FC Andorra to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%↑1.4
Squad overlay · FC Andorra stronger by 0.18, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes FC Andorra narrow favourites at 50%, with Real Sociedad II at 21% and the draw at 30%. FC Andorra have lost 3 straight (7 scored, 8 conceded). Watch Daniel Villahermosa 馃嚜馃嚫 and Thomas Carrique 馃嚝馃嚪 for FC Andorra, and Gorka Carrera Zarranz and Lander Astiazaran for Real Sociedad II.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC Andorra (17th)

Andorra la Vella. Kosmos-owned (Piqu茅) Andorran club playing in the Spanish pyramid; Estadi Nacional (~1,000m altitude), a genuine travel-and-altitude quirk. Ambitious, well-backed, foreign-flavoured.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 55.0 in league · 7th of 18
Seasons 2023: 21st | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 17th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 ValladolidSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 EibarSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA2-4 Celta de Vigo IISegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH5-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 BurgosSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 1,6,6,1,1
Key players Gael Alonso 馃嚜馃嚫 66.2, Sergio Molina 馃嚜馃嚫 55.3, Jes煤s Owono 馃嚞馃嚩 54.9, Efe Akman 馃嚬馃嚪 52.0, Marc Dom茅nech 馃嚜馃嚫 50.8
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 18 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚟馃嚭 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚞馃嚩 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
11817th08-15 v AD Ceuta FC: +5.008-24 v Celta de Vigo II: -3.008-30 v Eibar: -2.009-05 v Valladolid: -2.0

Real Sociedad II (13th)

San Sebastian. Real Sociedad's reserve side (Sanse); Basque youth pipeline, cannot be promoted to La Liga (reserve rule), tiny crowds. Develops and sells, results volatile.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 27.2 in league · 16th of 18
Seasons 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 13th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 TenerifeSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA2-2 BurgosSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA2-1 AlbaceteSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 Castell贸nSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 Cultural LeonesaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 2,1,3,4,2
Key players Luken Beitia 馃嚜馃嚫 50.9, Unax Agote 馃嚜馃嚫 49.9, Jon Balda 馃嚜馃嚫 48.3, Aitor Fraga 馃嚜馃嚫 48.1, Gorka Carrera Zarranz 44.3
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 24 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚢馃嚜 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
102215th08-14 v Castell贸n: -2.008-22 v Albacete: +2.008-31 v Burgos: +0.009-05 v Tenerife: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Cadiz (18th) v Las Palmas (10th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 30%
X 31%
2 39%
Prediction: Las Palmas to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 39%
Squad overlay · Las Palmas stronger by 0.16, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Las Palmas the marginal call at 39%, with Cadiz at 30% and the draw at 31%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 39%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Alvaro Garcia-Pascual and Iker Recio 馃嚜馃嚫 for Cadiz, and Manuel Fuster 馃嚜馃嚫 and Enrique Clemente 馃嚜馃嚫 for Las Palmas.

Cadiz: Andalusian club (the Submarino Amarillo), famed Carranza atmosphere; a La Liga fixture in recent seasons, now down. · Las Palmas: Canary Islands club (Gran Canaria), possession-minded tradition; the Estadio de Gran Canaria.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Cadiz (18th)

Andalusian club (the Submarino Amarillo), famed Carranza atmosphere; a La Liga fixture in recent seasons, now down. Passionate support, promotion the aim.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 26.1 in league · 18th of 18
Seasons 2024: 12th | 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 18th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA2-3 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 ValladolidSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA2-2 EldenseSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 Celta de Vigo IISegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA1-4 Racing SantanderSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 5,0,4,2,5
Key players Iza Carcel茅n 馃嚜馃嚫 50.2, Sergio Arribas 馃嚜馃嚫 49.8, Javier Castro 46.0, Suso 馃嚜馃嚫 45.6, David Gil 馃嚜馃嚫 43.7
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 22 路 馃嚥馃嚤 3 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
41818th08-15 v Celta de Vigo II: +0.008-22 v Eldense: +0.008-30 v Valladolid: +0.009-06 v Almeria: -2.0

Las Palmas (10th)

Canary Islands club (Gran Canaria), possession-minded tradition; the Estadio de Gran Canaria. Island travel a quirk for visitors, a La Liga side of recent vintage now chasing a return.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 51.5 in league · 9th of 18
Seasons 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 10th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 LeganesSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA2-5 GironaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA2-0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH2-1 AlbaceteSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA1-1 MalagaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 2,3,2,7,0
Key players Manuel Fuster 馃嚜馃嚫 61.4, Marvin Park 馃嚜馃嚫 53.3, Kirian Rodr铆guez 馃嚜馃嚫 51.6, Taisei Miyashiro 馃嚡馃嚨 49.5, Jonathan Viera 馃嚜馃嚫 49.0
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 28 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚘 1 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
11010th08-16 v Albacete: +2.008-22 v AD Ceuta FC: +3.008-29 v Girona: -4.009-04 v Leganes: +0.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Girona (5th) v Castell贸n (1st)

↓ Girona TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -38
1 47%
X 30%
2 23%
Prediction: Girona to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 58%↑1.1
Match preview

The model makes Girona narrow favourites at 47%, with Castell贸n at 23% and the draw at 30%. Girona have won 3 of their last five (12 scored, 6 conceded). Castell贸n have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 4 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 62%. Watch A. Ounahi 馃嚥馃嚘 and V. Tsygankov 馃嚭馃嚘 for Girona, and 脕lex Calatrava 馃嚜馃嚫 and Ousmane Camara 馃嚞馃嚦 for Castell贸n.

Girona: City Football Group's Catalan club, a 2023-24 top-4 and UCL fairytale; Montilivi (tiny, ~14k).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Girona (5th)

City Football Group's Catalan club, a 2023-24 top-4 and UCL fairytale; Montilivi (tiny, ~14k). Predicted qualifier; data-driven, sells and reloads.

Seasons 2026 so far: 5th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 Sporting GijonSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH5-2 Las PalmasSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA1-2 CordobaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 LeganesSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 ElcheLa Liga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 4,2,3,7,2
Key players Alejandro Franc茅s 馃嚜馃嚫 60.6, Iv谩n Morante 馃嚜馃嚫 53.6, Jastin Garc铆a 52.2, Izan Gonz谩lez 50.2, 脕lex Moreno 馃嚜馃嚫 49.5
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 16 路 馃嚦馃嚤 3 路 馃嚭馃嚘 3 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 +12 more
Season pulse season 2026
2175th08-16 v Leganes: +0.008-21 v Cordoba: -2.008-29 v Las Palmas: +4.009-05 v Sporting Gijon: +3.0

Castell贸n (1st)

Castellon de la Plana. Valencian-community club, historic Castalia support revived; recently promoted, attacking identity, modest budget, atmosphere above the level.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 74.2 in league · 1st of 18
Seasons 2024: 16th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 1st (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 AlbaceteSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA2-1 Celta de Vigo IISegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH0-0 SabadellSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA1-0 Real Sociedad IISegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA2-3 AlmeriaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYN match totals 5,1,0,3,2
Key players Alberto Jim茅nez 馃嚜馃嚫 73.0, Jeremy Mellot 馃嚝馃嚪 66.2, Agust铆n Sienra 馃嚘馃嚪 59.9, Juanjo Nieto 馃嚜馃嚫 51.5, Israel Suero Fern谩ndez 馃嚘馃嚪 51.5
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 17 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚠馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
1111st08-14 v Real Sociedad II: +2.008-23 v Sabadell: +0.008-31 v Celta de Vigo II: +2.009-06 v Albacete: +3.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Granada CF (9th) v Albacete (21st)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 47%
X 30%
2 23%
Prediction: Granada CF to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 48%↑0.9
Squad overlay · Albacete stronger by 0.02, shifted the price by up to 0.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Granada CF narrow favourites at 47%, with Albacete at 23% and the draw at 30%. Albacete have lost 5 straight (2 scored, 8 conceded). Watch Jos茅 Manuel Arn谩iz 馃嚜馃嚫 and Pedro Alema帽 馃嚜馃嚫 for Granada CF, and Jeft茅 Betancor 馃嚜馃嚫 and Antonio Puertas 馃嚜馃嚫 for Albacete.

Granada CF: Andalusian club, Los C谩rmenes; a La Liga side in recent seasons, now down and rebuilding. · Albacete: Castilla-La Mancha club (Queso Mec谩nico), Carlos Belmonte; steady mid-table Segunda fixture, modest budget, disciplined.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Granada CF (9th)

Andalusian club, Los C谩rmenes; a La Liga side in recent seasons, now down and rebuilding. Loyal support, promotion the target, foreign-owned.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 50.9 in league · 10th of 18
Seasons 2024: 7th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 9th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 EibarSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WA3-1 CordobaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH2-0 MallorcaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DA0-0 OviedoSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH1-2 Sporting GijonSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,0,2,4,3
Key players Ra煤l Lizoain 馃嚜馃嚫 60.6, Manuel Lama Maroto 馃嚜馃嚫 57.2, Jorge Pascual 馃嚜馃嚫 51.2, Manu Trigueros 馃嚜馃嚫 49.9, Lo茂c Williams 馃嚜馃嚫 48.9
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 21 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚥 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚠馃嚤 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
1169th08-15 v Oviedo: +0.008-24 v Mallorca: +3.008-30 v Cordoba: +3.009-06 v Eibar: -4.0

Albacete (21st)

Castilla-La Mancha club (Queso Mec谩nico), Carlos Belmonte; steady mid-table Segunda fixture, modest budget, disciplined.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 53.9 in league · 8th of 18
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 21st (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 Castell贸nSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH0-1 OviedoSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH1-2 Real Sociedad IISegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA1-2 Las PalmasSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 1,3,3,1,2
Key players Fran G谩mez 馃嚜馃嚫 56.9, Rober Gonz谩lez 54.6, Pepe S谩nchez 馃嚜馃嚫 53.2, Victor San Bartolome 52.0, Lorenzo Aguado 馃嚜馃嚫 51.6
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 27 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
162121st08-16 v Las Palmas: -2.008-22 v Real Sociedad II: -2.008-29 v Oviedo: -2.009-06 v Castell贸n: -3.0
league draws 25% · chaos 38orderly

Cordoba (19th) v Almeria (12th)

1 35%
X 31%
2 35%
Prediction: Cordoba to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 70%↑2.6
Squad overlay · Almeria stronger by 0.15, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Cordoba the marginal call at 35%, with Almeria at 35% and the draw at 31%. Both teams to score looks likely at 72%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 70%. Watch Cristian Carracedo 馃嚜馃嚫 and Adrian Fuentes 馃嚨馃嚜 for Cordoba, and Sergio Arribas 馃嚜馃嚫 and Adri谩n Embarba 馃嚜馃嚫 for Almeria.

Cordoba: Andalusian club, historic big-city side with a loyal following at El Arc谩ngel; back up the pyramid after years down, promotion-minded, passionate support. · Almeria: Andalusian club, foreign-owned (Turki Al-Sheikh); the modern Power Horse Stadium.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Cordoba (19th)

Andalusian club, historic big-city side with a loyal following at El Arc谩ngel; back up the pyramid after years down, promotion-minded, passionate support.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 49.9 in league · 11th of 18
Seasons 2024: 13th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 19th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA2-3 SabadellSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH1-3 Granada CFSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH2-1 GironaSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA2-3 BurgosSegunda Divisi贸n
  • DH1-1 HuescaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,5,3,4,5
Key players Cristian Carracedo 馃嚜馃嚫 63.4, Rub茅n 馃嚜馃嚫 53.2, Kevin Medina 53.1, Isma Ruiz 馃嚜馃嚫 52.1, 脕lex Mart铆n 馃嚜馃嚫 49.4
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 24 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 馃嚪馃嚭 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚛 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
81919th08-16 v Burgos: -2.008-21 v Girona: +2.008-30 v Granada CF: -3.009-07 v Sabadell: -2.0

Almeria (12th)

Andalusian club, foreign-owned (Turki Al-Sheikh); the modern Power Horse Stadium. A La Liga side in recent seasons, now in the Segunda pushing for promotion, well-funded.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 73.1 in league · 2nd of 18
Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 12th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 CadizSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 SabadellSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LA0-1 TenerifeSegunda Divisi贸n
  • WH3-0 EldenseSegunda Divisi贸n
  • LH1-2 MalagaSegunda Divisi贸n
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,3,1,1,5
Key players Sergio Arribas 馃嚜馃嚫 71.6, Brian Cipenga 馃嚚馃嚛 63.5, Federico Bonini 馃嚠馃嚬 53.7, Andr茅s Fern谩ndez 馃嚜馃嚫 51.4, Adri谩n Embarba 馃嚜馃嚫 50.7
Nationalities 馃嚜馃嚫 16 路 馃嚙馃嚪 4 路 馃嚨馃嚬 3 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
21612th08-17 v Eldense: +4.008-23 v Tenerife: -2.008-29 v Sabadell: -2.009-06 v Cadiz: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.