Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

← all leagues

馃嚠馃嚬 Serie B

league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Avellino (5th) v Palermo (1st)

↑ Palermo TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +26
1 28%
X 33%
2 39%
Prediction: Palermo to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 46%
Match preview

The model makes Palermo the marginal call at 39%, with Avellino at 28% and the draw at 33%. Avellino have won 3 of their last five (6 scored, 5 conceded). Palermo arrive on a 4-game winning run (9 scored, 6 conceded). Watch Cosimo Patierno 馃嚠馃嚬 for Avellino, and Joel Pohjanpalo 馃嚝馃嚠 and Matteo Brunori 馃嚠馃嚬 for Palermo.

Avellino: Irpinia passion: 8th in 25/26 Serie B, reached the playoff preliminary (beat Modena 1-0 to clinch it). · Palermo: City Football Group's project: 4th in 25/26, straight to the playoff semis, but fell short again (lost 0-2 at champions Venezia on the last day).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Avellino (5th)

Irpinia passion: 8th in 25/26 Serie B, reached the playoff preliminary (beat Modena 1-0 to clinch it). Partenio intense. Momentum club; playoff-race repeat plausible.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 68.0 in league · 3rd of 15
Seasons 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 5th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 ModenaSerie B
  • WH3-0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • LH1-2 ArezzoSerie B
  • LA0-3 CatanzaroSerie B
  • WH1-0 ModenaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 1,3,3,3,1
Key players Lorenco 艩imi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 56.9, Armando Izzo 馃嚠馃嚬 56.7, Tommaso Martinelli 53.9, Raffaele Russo 馃嚠馃嚬 51.4, Michele Besaggio 馃嚠馃嚬 50.8
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 31 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚧 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
4155th08-22 v Arezzo: -2.308-29 v Vicenza Virtus: +4.109-06 v Modena: +2.0

Palermo (1st)

City Football Group's project: 4th in 25/26, straight to the playoff semis, but fell short again (lost 0-2 at champions Venezia on the last day). Barbera 33k. Biggest budget in B alongside the relegated trio; promotion-or-bust pressure.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 81.1 in league · 1st of 15
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 1st (9 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • WA3-2 ArezzoSerie B
  • WH1-0 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • WH2-0 CatanzaroSerie B
  • LA0-3 CatanzaroSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,1,5,4
Key players Filippo Ranocchia 馃嚠馃嚬 61.6, Mattia Bani 馃嚠馃嚬 59.2, Tommaso Augello 馃嚠馃嚬 57.5, Hernani 馃嚙馃嚪 55.2, Joel Pohjanpalo 馃嚝馃嚠 54.9
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 20 路 馃嚝馃嚪 4 路 馃嚝馃嚠 2 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
191st08-23 v Juve Stabia: +2.108-30 v Arezzo: +2.409-07 v Sampdoria: +3.0
league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Mantova (2nd) v Sampdoria (19th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY↑ Sampdoria TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +19
1 46%
X 32%
2 22%
Prediction: Mantova to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%
xG overlay · Sampdoria better on chances than on results by 0.30 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Mantova narrow favourites at 46%, with Sampdoria at 22% and the draw at 32%. Mantova have won 3 of their last five (9 scored, 10 conceded). Watch Simone Trimboli 馃嚠馃嚬 and Alessio Castellini 馃嚠馃嚬 for Mantova, and Massimo Coda 馃嚠馃嚬 for Sampdoria.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Mantova (2nd)

Mantua. Survived, but ended 25/26 humiliated 0-5 by Frosinone on the final day. Martelli historic. Thin squad; relegation-battle projection.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 48.1 in league · 8th of 15
Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 2nd (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 CesenaSerie B
  • WH3-1 EmpoliSerie B
  • WA2-1 CarrareseSerie B
  • LA0-5 FrosinoneSerie B
  • WH3-2 MonzaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 5,5,3,4,2
Key players Simone Trimboli 馃嚠馃嚬 55.5, Davide Bragantini 馃嚠馃嚬 49.9, Alessio Castellini 馃嚠馃嚬 49.7, Francesco Ruocco 馃嚠馃嚬 48.2, Andrea Meroni 馃嚠馃嚬 45.6
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 23 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 馃嚭馃嚲 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
182nd08-22 v Carrarese: +2.108-30 v Empoli: +3.409-06 v Cesena: +0.0

Sampdoria (19th)

Genoa. Giant in distress: survived B only in the final weeks (lost the finale to Reggiana who still went down). Marassi 30k+ even in B. Ownership saga ongoing; too big for a relegation fight they keep having. High variance.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 51.0 in league · 7th of 15
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 19th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 PalermoSerie B
  • LH1-2 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • DA1-1 CesenaSerie B
  • LA0-1 ReggianaSerie B
  • WH1-0 SudtirolSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYY match totals 1,1,2,3,4
Key players Lorenzo Insigne 馃嚠馃嚬 59.9, Luca Ravanelli 馃嚠馃嚬 55.2, Salvatore Esposito 馃嚠馃嚬 54.1, Antoine Makoumbou 馃嚚馃嚞 42.2, Danel Sinani 馃嚤馃嚭 41.8
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 29 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1 路 馃嚚馃嚲 1 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
111919th08-23 v Cesena: -0.108-29 v Juve Stabia: -1.909-07 v Palermo: -3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.