Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚠馃嚬 Serie B

league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Vicenza Virtus (12th) v Juve Stabia (14th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 36%
X 33%
2 31%
Prediction: Vicenza Virtus to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Vicenza Virtus the marginal call at 36%, with Juve Stabia at 31% and the draw at 33%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Franco Ferrari for Vicenza Virtus, and Lorenzo Carissoni 馃嚠馃嚬 and Nicola Mosti 馃嚠馃嚬 for Juve Stabia.

Vicenza Virtus: Historic club (1997 Cup winners) finally promoted back from Serie C after repeated playoff heartbreak.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Vicenza Virtus (12th)

Historic club (1997 Cup winners) finally promoted back from Serie C after repeated playoff heartbreak. Menti loud. Strong support, B-ready squad core; mid-table target.

Seasons 2026 so far: 12th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • LA0-3 AvellinoSerie B
  • WH3-2 CatanzaroSerie B
  • LA0-2 Nuova CosenzaSerie B
  • WH1-0 Nuova CosenzaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 1,2,5,3,4
Key players Mattia Valoti 馃嚠馃嚬 55.1, Tommaso Corazza 馃嚠馃嚬 47.1, Nicol貌 Brighenti 馃嚠馃嚬 34.2, Gabriele Moncini 馃嚠馃嚬 31.2, Riccardo Marchizza 馃嚠馃嚬 30.5
Season pulse season 2026
11312th08-21 v Catanzaro: +2.008-29 v Avellino: -4.109-06 v Virtus Entella: +0.0

Juve Stabia (14th)

Castellammare di Stabia. Castellammare overachievers: 7th and playoffs again in 25/26. Menti tight, Vesuvian intensity. Second straight playoff push proves it's no fluke; top-8 projection.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 33.9 in league · 14th of 15
Seasons 2024: 5th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 14th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 PisaSerie B
  • WA2-1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • LA0-1 PalermoSerie B
  • LA1-2 MonzaSerie B
  • DH2-2 MonzaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 4,3,1,3,3
Key players Federico Artioli 馃嚠馃嚬 48.3, Marco Bellich 馃嚠馃嚬 46.1, Fabio Maistro 馃嚠馃嚬 42.9, Antonio Di Nardo 馃嚠馃嚬 42.1, Davide Bettella 馃嚠馃嚬 41.7
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 30 路 馃嚬馃嚦 1 路 馃嚪馃嚧 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1
Season pulse season 2026
101814th08-23 v Palermo: -2.108-29 v Sampdoria: +1.909-06 v Pisa: -4.0
league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Padova (11th) v Ascoli (4th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ Padova TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +19
1 37%
X 33%
2 29%
Prediction: Padova to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 39%
vs performances: Padova +0.46 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes Padova the marginal call at 37%, with Ascoli at 29% and the draw at 33%. Padova have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 7 conceded). Ascoli are unbeaten in five (8 scored, 5 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 39%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Mattia Bortolussi and Alessandro Capelli for Padova.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Padova (11th)

Padua. Survived their first season back in B after Serie C promotion. Euganeo athletic-track ground mutes atmosphere. Consolidation year two; lower-mid projection.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 56.0 in league · 5th of 15
Seasons 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 11th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 CremoneseSerie B
  • DH1-1 Hellas VeronaSerie B
  • WA1-0 PisaSerie B
  • WA4-3 CesenaSerie B
  • WH1-0 PescaraSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 1,7,1,2,4
Key players Gabriele Artistico 馃嚠馃嚬 53.1, Christian Pastina 50.1, Alessandro Sorrentino 馃嚠馃嚬 49.1, Marco Perrotta 48.7, Pietro Fusi 43.4
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 3
Season pulse season 2026
41111th08-23 v Pisa: +1.708-29 v Hellas Verona: -0.409-06 v Cremonese: -3.6

Ascoli (4th)

Ascoli Piceno. Fallen B stalwart back from Serie C at the first real attempt. Del Duca passionate. Marche club with B-level infrastructure; lower-mid target, derby dates vs Sambenedettese-adjacent rivals energise them.

Seasons 2023: 18th | 2026 so far: 4th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 BeneventoSerie B
  • DH1-1 CarrareseSerie B
  • WA2-1 Hellas VeronaSerie B
  • WH2-1 PisaSerie B
  • DA2-2 PalermoSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 4,3,3,2,1
Key players Matteo Ricci 馃嚠馃嚬 43.1, Gennaro Acampora 馃嚠馃嚬 40.8, Matteo Brunori 馃嚠馃嚬 34.7
Season pulse season 2026
244th08-23 v Hellas Verona: +1.108-29 v Carrarese: -0.109-05 v Benevento: +2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Sudtirol (3rd) v Modena (6th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 37%
X 33%
2 30%
Prediction: Sudtirol to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 31%
xG overlay · Sudtirol better on chances than on results by 0.15 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes Sudtirol the marginal call at 37%, with Modena at 30% and the draw at 33%. Sudtirol are unbeaten in five (4 scored, 1 conceded). The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 39%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 31%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Fabian Tait 馃嚠馃嚬 for Sudtirol, and Antonio Palumbo 馃嚠馃嚬 for Modena.

Sudtirol: Bolzano/Alto Adige club saved itself by winning the playout vs Bari. · Modena: 6th, made the playoff preliminary (lost to Juve Stabia).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Sudtirol (3rd)

Bolzano/Alto Adige club saved itself by winning the playout vs Bari. Druso compact, alpine climate, bilingual region. Survival specialists; expect another 15th-17th grind.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 41.7 in league · 11th of 15
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 3rd (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 CatanzaroSerie B
  • DA1-1 BeneventoSerie B
  • WH1-0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • DH0-0 BariSerie B
  • DA0-0 BariSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 0,0,1,2,2
Key players Salvatore Molina 馃嚠馃嚬 51.8, Daniele Casiraghi 馃嚠馃嚬 51.0, Fabio Rispoli 馃嚠馃嚬 46.5, Andrea Giorgini 馃嚠馃嚬 46.1, Hamza El Kaouakibi 馃嚥馃嚘 41.4
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 24 路 馃嚘馃嚤 2 路 馃嚤馃嚬 1 路 馃嚫馃嚦 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
1103rd08-22 v Virtus Entella: +2.208-30 v Benevento: -0.809-05 v Catanzaro: +3.0

Modena (6th)

6th, made the playoff preliminary (lost to Juve Stabia). Braglia solid support. Consistent upper-mid B side; playoff-race repeat plausible.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 68.9 in league · 2nd of 15
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 6th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 AvellinoSerie B
  • WA3-0 CremoneseSerie B
  • WA2-1 BeneventoSerie B
  • LH0-1 Juve StabiaSerie B
  • LA0-1 AvellinoSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 1,1,3,3,1
Key players Daniel Tonoli 馃嚠馃嚬 57.5, Leandro Chichizola 馃嚘馃嚪 52.3, Giuseppe Caso 馃嚠馃嚬 51.3, Giuseppe Ambrosino 馃嚠馃嚬 48.8, Giacomo Olzer 馃嚠馃嚬 48.8
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 23 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
166th08-22 v Benevento: +2.008-28 v Cremonese: +4.109-06 v Avellino: -2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Catanzaro (20th) v Carrarese (17th)

↓ Catanzaro TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -33
1 48%
X 32%
2 20%
Prediction: Catanzaro to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
xG overlay · Carrarese better on chances than on results by 0.19 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Catanzaro narrow favourites at 48%, with Carrarese at 20% and the draw at 32%. Catanzaro have lost 3 straight (5 scored, 9 conceded). Watch Pietro Iemmello 馃嚠馃嚬 for Catanzaro, and Fabio Abiuso 馃嚠馃嚬 and Simone Zanon 馃嚠馃嚬 for Carrarese.

Catanzaro: Heartbreak: 5th, reached the playoff final, won 2-0 at Monza in the return - but lost promotion on regular-season position (2-2 agg).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Catanzaro (20th)

Heartbreak: 5th, reached the playoff final, won 2-0 at Monza in the return - but lost promotion on regular-season position (2-2 agg). Ceravolo boiling. Aquilani's side kept its core = strongest 26/27 promotion contender.

Style Pass-dominant from 2025
Squad quality 42.1 in league · 10th of 15
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 20th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 SudtirolSerie B
  • LA1-2 PisaSerie B
  • LA2-3 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • WA2-0 MonzaSerie B
  • LH0-2 MonzaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 2,2,5,3,2
Key players Jacopo Petriccione 馃嚠馃嚬 57.0, Matias Antonini 馃嚙馃嚪 46.8, Pietro Iemmello 馃嚠馃嚬 46.1, Marco D'Alessandro 馃嚠馃嚬 45.3, Federico Di Francesco 馃嚠馃嚬 42.1
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 29 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 馃嚥馃嚞 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚚馃嚠 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
152020th08-21 v Vicenza Virtus: -2.008-30 v Pisa: -2.509-05 v Sudtirol: -3.0

Carrarese (17th)

Carrara. Marble-town minnows survived 25/26 again (lost the finale 1-2 at Entella). Dei Marmi tiny. Overachievement is the norm; relegation-battle projection.

Seasons 2024: 12th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 17th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 EmpoliSerie B
  • DA1-1 AscoliSerie B
  • LH1-2 MantovaSerie B
  • LA1-2 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • DH0-0 CesenaSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 0,3,3,2,1
Key players Fabio Abiuso 馃嚠馃嚬 46.4, Jonas Rouhi 馃嚫馃嚜 46.0, Nicolas Schiavi 馃嚘馃嚪 45.4, Fabio Ruggeri 馃嚠馃嚬 38.1, Niccol貌 Belloni 馃嚠馃嚬 37.2
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 23 路 馃嚘馃嚪 3 路 馃嚨馃嚤 2 路 馃嚞馃嚥 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
131817th08-22 v Mantova: -2.108-29 v Ascoli: +0.109-05 v Empoli: -2.0
league draws 30% · chaos 18orderly

Cesena (9th) v Cremonese (13th)

1 31%
X 33%
2 36%
Prediction: Cremonese to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 49%
vs performances: Cremonese -0.26 (3g)
Match preview

The model makes Cremonese the marginal call at 36%, with Cesena at 31% and the draw at 33%. Watch Cristian Shpendi 馃嚘馃嚤 for Cesena, and Jamie Vardy 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Manuel De Luca 馃嚠馃嚬 for Cremonese.

Cesena: Solid 8th-ish 25/26, fringe of the playoffs.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Cesena (9th)

Solid 8th-ish 25/26, fringe of the playoffs. Orogel Stadium big for the level (20k+). Romagna support strong; playoff-race candidate again.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 41.7 in league · 12th of 15
Seasons 2024: 7th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 9th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 MantovaSerie B
  • WA2-1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • DH1-1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • LH3-4 PadovaSerie B
  • DA0-0 CarrareseSerie B
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 0,7,2,3,2
Key players Giovanni Zaro 馃嚠馃嚬 54.0, Alessandro Siano 馃嚠馃嚬 45.8, Dimitri Bisoli 馃嚠馃嚬 44.7, Michele Castagnetti 馃嚠馃嚬 44.5, Gianluca Frabotta 馃嚠馃嚬 41.0
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 28 路 馃嚘馃嚤 3 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1
Season pulse season 2026
3109th08-23 v Sampdoria: +0.108-29 v Virtus Entella: +1.909-06 v Mantova: +0.0

Cremonese (13th)

Cremona. Relegated from A (with Jamie Vardy's cameo season ending in the drop, 1-4 home loss to Como sealing it). Zini. Parachute money + B experience = immediate promotion contender if the squad holds.

Style Punished on few chances from 2024
Squad quality 54.4 in league · 6th of 15
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 4th | 2026 so far: 13th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 PadovaSerie B
  • LH0-3 ModenaSerie B
  • LA0-1 EmpoliSerie B
  • LH1-4 ComoSerie A
  • WA1-0 UdineseSerie A
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 0,5,1,3,4
Key players Simone Pontisso 馃嚠馃嚬 57.8, Federico Bonazzoli 馃嚠馃嚬 56.5, Salvatore Elia 馃嚠馃嚬 50.0, Jari Vandeputte 馃嚙馃嚜 47.9, Tommaso Berti 馃嚠馃嚬 47.3
Nationalities 馃嚠馃嚬 23 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚟 1 路 馃嚨馃嚲 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
132013th08-22 v Empoli: -2.308-28 v Modena: -4.109-06 v Padova: +3.6

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.