Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇸🇦 Saudi Pro League

league draws 24% · chaos 67lively

NEOM (5th) v Al-Fateh (16th)

1 59%
X 23%
2 18%
Prediction: NEOM to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%
vs performances: NEOM +0.43 (5g) · Al-Fateh -0.45 (4g)
xG overlay · Al-Fateh better on chances than on results by 0.11 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes NEOM clear favourites at 59%, with Al-Fateh at 18% and the draw at 23%. NEOM have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 3 conceded). Watch Alexandre Lacazette and Saïd Benrahma for NEOM, and Mourad Batna and Matías Vargas for Al-Fateh.

NEOM: Brand-new club tied to the NEOM gigaproject, promoted in 2025 and heavily funded with marquee signings; heat. · Al-Fateh: Hofuf club (Al-Hasa), surprise 2013 Saudi champions; heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

NEOM (5th)

Brand-new club tied to the NEOM gigaproject, promoted in 2025 and heavily funded with marquee signings; heat. A well-resourced newcomer disrupting the order.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 63.7 in league · 5th of 18
Seasons 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 5th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Pro League
  • WH3-0 Al Khaleej SaihatSaudi Pro League
  • LA0-1 Al RiyadhSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FCSaudi Pro League
  • WA2-0 Al-Faisaly FCSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,2,1,3,2
Key players Marcin Bułka 78.0, Saïd Benrahma 77.9, Malang Sarr 77.0, Amadou Koné 74.5, Nathan Zeze 71.6
Season pulse season 2026
385th08-14 v Al-Fayha: +2.008-21 v Al-Faisaly FC: +3.408-24 v Al-Qadisiyah FC: -3.208-28 v Al Riyadh: -2.009-03 v Al Khaleej Saihat: +4.009-07 v Al-Hilal Saudi FC: +2.8

Al-Fateh (16th)

Hofuf club (Al-Hasa), surprise 2013 Saudi champions; heat. A well-run mid-table side.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 45.2 in league · 11th of 18
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 16th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 Al DiriyahSaudi Pro League
  • DA0-0 Al TaawonSaudi Pro League
  • DH0-0 Al-Ittihad FCSaudi Pro League
  • DA1-1 Al-Faisaly FCSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-1 Al-EttifaqSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 1,2,0,0,3
Key players Marwane Saadane 76.9, Mourad Batna 73.0, Zaydou Youssouf 70.7, Saeed Baattia 69.7, Lukáš Haraslín 69.5
Season pulse season 2026
151816th08-15 v Al-Nassr: -4.408-22 v Al-Ettifaq: -2.508-26 v Al-Faisaly FC: +0.208-29 v Al-Ittihad FC: -0.609-05 v Al Taawon: +0.009-09 v Al Diriyah: -2.0
league draws 24% · chaos 67lively

Al Diriyah (7th) v Abha (18th)

1 69%
X 20%
2 11%
Prediction: Al Diriyah to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
vs performances: Al Diriyah +0.79 (3g) · Abha -0.65 (5g)
Match preview

The model makes Al Diriyah clear favourites at 69%, with Abha at 11% and the draw at 20%. Al Diriyah have won 3 of their last five (7 scored, 4 conceded). Abha have lost 3 straight (4 scored, 11 conceded). Al Diriyah also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in.

Al Diriyah: Newly promoted Riyadh-area club tied to the Diriyah gigaproject; extreme heat. · Abha: Highland club in the Asir mountains (Abha, ~2,270m, unusually cool and thin air for Saudi Arabia, a real quirk); a yo-yo Pro League side, modest budget.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Al Diriyah (7th)

Newly promoted Riyadh-area club tied to the Diriyah gigaproject; extreme heat. A project-backed newcomer, survival-focused.

Squad quality 44.2 in league · 12th of 18
Seasons 2026 so far: 7th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 Al-FatehSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FCSaudi Pro League
  • WA3-0 Al-EttifaqSaudi Pro League
  • DH1-1 Al KholoodSaudi Pro League
  • WA1-0 Al-HazmSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 1,2,3,2,3
Key players Nikola Vasilj 71.3, Darwin Núñez 67.0, Qasim Lajami 66.8, Chancel Mbemba 66.7, Berat Djimsiti 65.8
Season pulse season 2026
5177th08-13 v Al-Ahli Jeddah: -2.008-21 v Al-Hazm: +2.408-26 v Al Kholood: -0.408-29 v Al-Ettifaq: +4.309-03 v Al-Qadisiyah FC: -3.009-09 v Al-Fateh: +2.0

Abha (18th)

Highland club in the Asir mountains (Abha, ~2,270m, unusually cool and thin air for Saudi Arabia, a real quirk); a yo-yo Pro League side, modest budget.

Style Under siege from 2023
Squad quality 23.4 in league · 18th of 18
Seasons 2023: 16th | 2026 so far: 18th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Al-NassrSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-1 Al-EttifaqSaudi Pro League
  • LA2-3 Al-FayhaSaudi Pro League
  • DH1-1 Al Khaleej SaihatSaudi Pro League
  • LA0-4 Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 4,2,5,1,3
Key players Nabil Fekir 64.5, Basil Yousef Al-Sayyali 60.3, Rosier Loreintz 60.0, Abdulbaset Hindi 59.4, Mohammed Al-Zaid 57.5
Season pulse season 2026
121818th08-13 v Al-Hazm: -2.408-22 v Al-Ahli Jeddah: -5.808-25 v Al Khaleej Saihat: +0.008-28 v Al-Fayha: -2.209-04 v Al-Ettifaq: -2.009-09 v Al-Nassr: -2.5
league draws 24% · chaos 67lively

Al Riyadh (12th) v Al Kholood (6th)

1 32%
X 25%
2 44%
Prediction: Al Kholood to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%
vs performances: Al Riyadh +0.23 (5g) · Al Kholood +0.22 (6g)
xG overlay · Al Riyadh better on chances than on results by 0.29 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.4 pts
Match preview

The model makes Al Kholood narrow favourites at 44%, with Al Riyadh at 32% and the draw at 25%. Al Kholood are unbeaten in five (11 scored, 7 conceded). Watch Tozé and Teddy Okou for Al Riyadh, and Ramiro Enrique and Hattan Bahebri for Al Kholood.

Al Riyadh: Riyadh club, a mid-to-lower Pro League side; heat. · Al Kholood: Qassim-region club (Ar Rass), a recently promoted Pro League newcomer; heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Al Riyadh (12th)

Riyadh club, a mid-to-lower Pro League side; heat. Modest by the league's petro-standards.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 38.3 in league · 16th of 18
Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 12th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA0-0 Al Khaleej SaihatSaudi Pro League
  • LA0-5 Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Pro League
  • WH1-0 NEOMSaudi Pro League
  • DA3-3 Al ShababSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-4 Al-NassrSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 4,6,1,5,0
Key players Yoann Barbet 75.3, Tozé 67.3, Leandro Antunes 67.1, Bernard Mensah 65.2, Rodrigo Abascal 61.1
Season pulse season 2026
111812th08-14 v Al-Ettifaq: -4.008-21 v Al-Nassr: -5.408-25 v Al Shabab: -0.808-28 v NEOM: +2.009-04 v Al-Ahli Jeddah: -6.009-07 v Al Khaleej Saihat: -0.1

Al Kholood (6th)

Qassim-region club (Ar Rass), a recently promoted Pro League newcomer; heat. Modest, survival-focused.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 45.9 in league · 10th of 18
Seasons 2024: 9th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 6th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Al ShababSaudi Pro League
  • DA2-2 Al-FayhaSaudi Pro League
  • WH3-1 Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Pro League
  • DA1-1 Al DiriyahSaudi Pro League
  • WH3-2 Al TaawonSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 5,2,4,4,3
Key players Edgaras Utkus 83.0, John Buckley 69.4, Coba Da Costa 67.4, Ramiro Enrique 66.3, Julien Domingues 64.9
Season pulse season 2026
3116th08-15 v Al-Ittihad FC: -0.108-22 v Al Taawon: +2.108-26 v Al Diriyah: +0.408-29 v Al-Ahli Jeddah: +2.909-03 v Al-Fayha: +0.609-09 v Al Shabab: +2.8

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.