Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

← all leagues

🇸🇦 Saudi Pro League

league draws 24% · chaos 67lively

Al Taawon (14th) v Al-Hilal Saudi FC (1st)

↓ Al Taawon TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -39
1 11%
X 19%
2 70%
Prediction: Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 58%
vs performances: Al Taawon -0.92 (4g) · Al-Hilal Saudi FC -0.13 (4g)
xG overlay · Al Taawon better on chances than on results by 0.07 goals, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC clear favourites at 70%, with Al Taawon at 11% and the draw at 19%. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of their last five (13 scored, 3 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 58%. Al-Hilal Saudi FC also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Roger Martínez and Angelo Fulgini for Al Taawon, and Rúben Neves and Malcom for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

Al Taawon: Buraidah club (Qassim), a well-run upper-mid Pro League side and occasional continental participant; heat. · Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Asia's most successful club and the Saudi Pro League benchmark; Riyadh's Kingdom Arena, fierce heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Al Taawon (14th)

Buraidah club (Qassim), a well-run upper-mid Pro League side and occasional continental participant; heat.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 48.8 in league · 8th of 18
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 14th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Al-HazmSaudi Pro League
  • DH0-0 Al-FatehSaudi Pro League
  • LA1-2 Al-NassrSaudi Pro League
  • DH0-0 Al-FayhaSaudi Pro League
  • LA2-3 Al KholoodSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 5,0,3,0,1
Key players Marin Petkov 75.9, Mailson 71.1, Ashraf El Mahdioui 69.0, Parfait Guiagon 68.8, Awn Al Saluli 68.8
Season pulse season 2026
101514th08-15 v Al Khaleej Saihat: +0.108-22 v Al Kholood: -2.108-25 v Al-Fayha: +0.908-28 v Al-Nassr: -2.609-05 v Al-Fateh: +0.009-08 v Al-Hazm: -2.0

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (1st)

strong away

Asia's most successful club and the Saudi Pro League benchmark; Riyadh's Kingdom Arena, fierce heat. Stacked with global stars, the continent's dominant financial force.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 76.2 in league · 1st of 18
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 1st (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-2 NEOMSaudi Pro League
  • WA2-0 Al ShababSaudi Pro League
  • WH3-0 Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Pro League
  • WA5-1 Al Khaleej SaihatSaudi Pro League
  • WA3-0 Al-FayhaSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 3,6,3,2,2
Key players Rúben Neves 82.6, Sergej Milinković-Savić 80.7, Crysencio Summerville 78.9, Theo Hernández 78.1, Mohammed Mahzari 74.1
Season pulse season 2026
141st08-14 v Al-Faisaly FC: +4.308-20 v Al-Fayha: +5.608-28 v Al Khaleej Saihat: +6.009-01 v Al-Ahli Jeddah: +4.009-04 v Al Shabab: +3.009-07 v NEOM: -2.8
league draws 24% · chaos 67lively

Al Khaleej Saihat (13th) v Al-Nassr (2nd)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: AL-NASSR↓ Al-Nassr TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -33
1 8%
X 18%
2 74%
Prediction: Al-Nassr to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 70%
vs performances: Al Khaleej Saihat -0.24 (5g) · Al-Nassr +0.88 (5g)
xG overlay · Al Khaleej Saihat better on chances than on results by 0.80 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes Al-Nassr clear favourites at 74%, with Al Khaleej Saihat at 8% and the draw at 18%. Al-Nassr have won 4 of their last five (12 scored, 6 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 70%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Al-Nassr the stronger. Al-Nassr also carry markedly more imported squad value than results alone have priced in. Watch Kostas Fortounis and Joshua King for Al Khaleej Saihat, and João Félix and Cristiano Ronaldo for Al-Nassr.

Al Khaleej Saihat: Eastern-Province club (Saihat, near Qatif), a promoted Pro League side; Gulf heat. · Al-Nassr: Riyadh superclub, a galaxy of global signings in the Ronaldo era; Al-Awwal Park, extreme heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Al Khaleej Saihat (13th)

Eastern-Province club (Saihat, near Qatif), a promoted Pro League side; Gulf heat. Modest budget, survival-focused.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 38.5 in league · 14th of 18
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 12th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 13th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH0-0 Al RiyadhSaudi Pro League
  • LA0-3 NEOMSaudi Pro League
  • LH1-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Pro League
  • DA1-1 AbhaSaudi Pro League
  • DH0-0 Al ShababSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,2,6,3,0
Key players Angelo Fulgini 74.8, Joshua King 67.6, Boubakar Kouyaté 67.2, Anthony Moris 66.9, Abdullah Al-Hafith 65.5
Season pulse season 2026
81613th08-15 v Al Taawon: -0.108-22 v Al Shabab: -0.308-25 v Abha: +0.008-28 v Al-Hilal Saudi FC: -6.009-03 v NEOM: -4.009-07 v Al Riyadh: +0.1

Al-Nassr (2nd)

strong away

Riyadh superclub, a galaxy of global signings in the Ronaldo era; Al-Awwal Park, extreme heat. Deep, expensively-built squad.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 69.0 in league · 3rd of 18
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 4th | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 AbhaSaudi Pro League
  • LA1-2 Al-Ittihad FCSaudi Pro League
  • WH2-1 Al TaawonSaudi Pro League
  • WA3-2 Al-EttifaqSaudi Pro League
  • WA4-0 Al RiyadhSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,5,3,3,3
Key players João Félix 86.2, Mohamed Simakan 78.7, Ângelo 78.0, Abdulelah Al-Amri 76.1, Sadio Mané 75.4
Season pulse season 2026
142nd08-15 v Al-Fateh: +4.408-21 v Al Riyadh: +5.408-25 v Al-Ettifaq: +2.608-28 v Al Taawon: +2.609-05 v Al-Ittihad FC: -2.009-09 v Abha: +2.5
league draws 24% · chaos 67lively

Al Shabab (15th) v Al-Fayha (11th)

1 54%
X 24%
2 22%
Prediction: Al Shabab to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%
vs performances: Al Shabab -0.72 (5g) · Al-Fayha +0.17 (5g)
xG overlay · Al Shabab better on chances than on results by 0.51 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.4 pts
Match preview

The model makes Al Shabab narrow favourites at 54%, with Al-Fayha at 22% and the draw at 24%. Watch Yannick Carrasco and Saad Yaslam Balobaid for Al Shabab, and Fashion Sakala and Jason for Al-Fayha.

Al Shabab: Riyadh club, one of Saudi Arabia's traditional powers with a big fanbase; heat. · Al-Fayha: Al Majmaah club, 2022 King's Cup winners and an AFC participant; heat.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Al Shabab (15th)

Riyadh club, one of Saudi Arabia's traditional powers with a big fanbase; heat. Historic champions now chasing the petro-funded elite.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 53.1 in league · 7th of 18
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 15th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Al KholoodSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Pro League
  • DA1-1 Al-HazmSaudi Pro League
  • DH3-3 Al RiyadhSaudi Pro League
  • DA0-0 Al Khaleej SaihatSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 0,6,2,2,3
Key players Yannick Carrasco 83.2, Yacine Adli 75.7, Wesley Hoedt 71.3, Roger Martínez 70.4, Mory Diaw 67.7
Season pulse season 2026
131815th08-13 v Al-Qadisiyah FC: -3.508-22 v Al Khaleej Saihat: +0.308-25 v Al Riyadh: +0.808-30 v Al-Hazm: -0.109-04 v Al-Hilal Saudi FC: -3.009-09 v Al Kholood: -2.8

Al-Fayha (11th)

Al Majmaah club, 2022 King's Cup winners and an AFC participant; heat. A mid-table overachiever.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 42.8 in league · 13th of 18
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 11th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 Al-Ittihad FCSaudi Pro League
  • DH2-2 Al KholoodSaudi Pro League
  • WH3-2 AbhaSaudi Pro League
  • DA0-0 Al TaawonSaudi Pro League
  • LH0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Pro League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 3,0,5,4,3
Key players Orlando Mosquera 74.6, Yassine Benzia 70.7, Fashion Sakala 64.3, Nawwaf Al Harthi 63.4, Chris Smalling 63.4
Season pulse season 2026
101811th08-14 v NEOM: -2.008-20 v Al-Hilal Saudi FC: -5.608-25 v Al Taawon: -0.908-28 v Abha: +2.209-03 v Al Kholood: -0.609-08 v Al-Ittihad FC: -2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.