Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚪馃嚭 Russian Premier League

league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

Akhmat (12th) v Dinamo Makhachkala (6th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 44%
X 28%
2 28%
Prediction: Akhmat to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 37%
Match preview

The model makes Akhmat narrow favourites at 44%, with Dinamo Makhachkala at 28% and the draw at 28%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 37%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Lechi Sadulaev 馃嚪馃嚭 for Akhmat, and Gamid Agalarov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Nikita Glushkov 馃嚪馃嚭 for Dinamo Makhachkala.

Akhmat: Grozny club, state-backed; lower-mid 25/26 safety. · Dinamo Makhachkala: Dagestani club survived via the relegation playoff after a 14th-place 25/26 (18 goals scored - lowest attack).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Akhmat (12th)

draw merchants

Grozny club, state-backed; lower-mid 25/26 safety. Akhmat Arena travel is the league's most security-laden away day; even Pari NN staged a home game there. Physical, defensive; 9th-13th projection.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 53.8 in league · 6th of 16
Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 12th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 RubinRussian Premier League
  • DH3-3 Krylia SovetovRussian Premier League
  • WH4-1 FC RostovRussian Premier League
  • LA0-1 FC KrasnodarRussian Premier League
  • DA0-0 FakelRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYN match totals 0,1,5,6,2
Key players Egas Cacintura 馃嚘馃嚧 71.9, Vadim Ulyanov 馃嚪馃嚭 71.2, Lechi Sadulaev 馃嚪馃嚭 66.4, Kirill Shchetinin 馃嚪馃嚭 65.5, Georgi Melkadze 馃嚪馃嚭 64.4
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 15 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚘馃嚧 2 路 馃嚢馃嚳 2 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
71412th07-26 v Lokomotiv: +0.008-02 v Spartak Moscow: -2.008-10 v Fakel: +0.008-15 v FC Krasnodar: -2.008-22 v FC Rostov: +4.008-29 v Krylia Sovetov: +0.009-07 v Rubin: +0.0

Dinamo Makhachkala (6th)

Dagestani club survived via the relegation playoff after a 14th-place 25/26 (18 goals scored - lowest attack). Ultra-defensive identity; Kaspiysk home with fierce local backing. Relegation favourite; every game unders.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 40.4 in league · 13th of 16
Seasons 2024: 12th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 6th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
  • LA1-3 RubinRussian Premier League
  • LH0-1 FC KrasnodarRussian Premier League
  • WA4-1 Krylia SovetovRussian Premier League
  • LA1-3 DynamoRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 4,5,1,4,2
Key players Houssem Eddine Mrezigue 馃嚛馃嚳 70.1, Gamid Agalarov 馃嚪馃嚭 67.0, Mohamed Azzi 馃嚛馃嚳 63.1, David Volk 馃嚪馃嚭 62.4, Daniil Lesovoy 馃嚪馃嚭 59.2
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 22 路 馃嚛馃嚳 3 路 馃嚠馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
186th07-25 v Fakel: +2.008-01 v Lokomotiv: +2.008-09 v Dynamo: -3.008-16 v Krylia Sovetov: +4.008-23 v FC Krasnodar: -2.008-30 v Rubin: -3.009-06 v Rodina Moskva: +3.0
league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

Spartak Moscow (3rd) v FC Rostov (10th)

1 60%
X 24%
2 16%
Prediction: Spartak Moscow to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 44%↓1.2
Match preview

The model makes Spartak Moscow clear favourites at 60%, with FC Rostov at 16% and the draw at 24%. Watch Manfred Ugalde 馃嚚馃嚪 and Esequiel Barco 馃嚘馃嚪 for Spartak Moscow, and Egor Golenkov 馃嚪馃嚭 for FC Rostov.

Spartak Moscow: Cup winners 25/26 (beat Krasnodar in the final) but league inconsistency continues - no title since 2017.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Spartak Moscow (3rd)

Cup winners 25/26 (beat Krasnodar in the final) but league inconsistency continues - no title since 2017. Lukoil Arena, biggest fanbase and pressure in Russia. Ugalde-led attack; top-4 baseline, title credibility still missing.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 59.7 in league · 5th of 16
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 3rd (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 DynamoRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
  • WH2-0 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • WA2-1 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • LH1-2 FC KrasnodarRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,3,2,2,3
Key players Esequiel Barco 馃嚘馃嚪 80.3, Marquinhos Costa 馃嚙馃嚪 67.2, Alexander Djiku 馃嚞馃嚟 67.1, Ruslan Litvinov 馃嚪馃嚭 65.8, Pablo Solari 馃嚘馃嚪 65.0
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 18 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
243rd07-25 v Rodina Moskva: +4.008-02 v Akhmat: +2.008-09 v FC Krasnodar: -2.008-16 v Baltika: +2.008-23 v Zenit: +3.008-30 v FC Orenburg: +0.009-06 v Dynamo: -2.0

FC Rostov (10th)

Rostov-on-Don. Rostov Arena mid-tabler; 25/26 unremarkable mid-pack. Talent-development conveyor keeps selling to Moscow clubs. 7th-11th projection; solid at home.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 45.9 in league · 8th of 16
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 10th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 FakelRussian Premier League
  • LA0-1 FC KrasnodarRussian Premier League
  • LA1-4 AkhmatRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 RubinRussian Premier League
  • DA0-0 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 0,2,5,1,4
Key players Viktor Melekhin 馃嚪馃嚭 69.2, Aleksey Mironov 馃嚪馃嚭 66.0, Ygor Nogueira 馃嚙馃嚪 65.1, Konstantin Kuchaev 馃嚪馃嚭 63.0, Dmitri Chistyakov 馃嚪馃嚭 61.4
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 23 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚬馃嚥 1 路 馃嚬馃嚡 1 路 馃嚘馃嚥 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
61210th07-26 v FC Orenburg: -2.007-31 v Rodina Moskva: +3.008-08 v CSKA Moscow: +0.008-15 v Rubin: +0.008-22 v Akhmat: -4.008-29 v FC Krasnodar: -2.009-05 v Fakel: +3.0
league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

FC Krasnodar (1st)🔥 v Akron (14th)

1 76%
X 17%
2 7%
Prediction: FC Krasnodar to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 65%↓0.7
Match preview

The model makes FC Krasnodar clear favourites at 76%, with Akron at 7% and the draw at 17%. FC Krasnodar are unbeaten in five (7 scored, 3 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 65%. Watch Jhon Cordoba and Eduard Spertsyan 馃嚘馃嚥 for FC Krasnodar, and Artem Dzyuba 馃嚪馃嚭 for Akron.

FC Krasnodar: Dethroned 24/25 champions: strong 25/26 (5-0 and 6-0 statement wins, Cordoba top scorer with 17) but lost the title to Zenit and the cup final to Spartak. · Akron: Tolyatti newcomers (top flight only since 2024) survived again despite a 10-game winless run.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC Krasnodar (1st)🔥

strong at home

Dethroned 24/25 champions: strong 25/26 (5-0 and 6-0 statement wins, Cordoba top scorer with 17) but lost the title to Zenit and the cup final to Spartak. Best academy and stadium in Russia. Title co-favourite again.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 71.9 in league · 2nd of 16
Seasons 2024: 1st | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 1st (19 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Krylia SovetovRussian Premier League
  • WH1-0 FC RostovRussian Premier League
  • WA1-0 Dinamo MakhachkalaRussian Premier League
  • WH1-0 AkhmatRussian Premier League
  • WA2-1 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,1,1,4
Key players Jhon C贸rdoba 馃嚚馃嚧 79.0, Jubal 馃嚙馃嚪 76.9, Lucas Olaza 馃嚭馃嚲 73.8, Nikita Krivtsov 馃嚪馃嚭 71.9, V铆tor Tormena 馃嚙馃嚪 71.3
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 16 路 馃嚙馃嚪 7 路 馃嚭馃嚲 3 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚘馃嚥 1 路 馃嚚馃嚮 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
151st07-26 v Rubin: +3.008-02 v Fakel: +2.008-09 v Spartak Moscow: +2.008-15 v Akhmat: +2.008-23 v Dinamo Makhachkala: +2.008-29 v FC Rostov: +2.009-05 v Krylia Sovetov: +0.0

Akron (14th)

Tolyatti newcomers (top flight only since 2024) survived again despite a 10-game winless run. Veteran Artem Dzyuba chasing scoring records fronts the attack. Small crowds, groundshare history; relegation-playoff gravity.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 45.5 in league · 9th of 16
Seasons 2024: 9th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 14th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
  • DH2-2 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • LH0-3 Krylia SovetovRussian Premier League
  • DA3-3 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
  • DA0-0 LokomotivRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 0,6,3,4,4
Key players Gilson Tavares 71.8, Rodrigo Escoval 68.5, Marat Bokoev 馃嚪馃嚭 66.1, Roberto Fern谩ndez 馃嚙馃嚧 63.2, Artem Dzyuba 馃嚪馃嚭 62.9
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 21 路 馃嚙馃嚧 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 馃嚪馃嚧 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
141614th07-25 v Zenit: -6.008-01 v Rubin: -2.008-08 v Lokomotiv: +0.008-15 v Rodina Moskva: +0.008-23 v Krylia Sovetov: -4.008-28 v CSKA Moscow: +0.009-06 v FC Orenburg: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.