Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚪馃嚭 Russian Premier League

league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

Fakel (16th) v Baltika (7th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 20%
X 28%
2 52%
Prediction: Baltika to win (solid) · BTTS: No (strong) · Over 2.5: 31%↓1.2
Match preview

The model makes Baltika narrow favourites at 52%, with Fakel at 20% and the draw at 28%. The model expects at least one clean sheet: both teams to score sits at just 38%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 31%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Vyacheslav Yakimov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Albert Gabaraev 馃嚪馃嚭 for Fakel, and Maksim Petrov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Brayan Gil 馃嚫馃嚮 for Baltika.

Fakel: Voronezh club promoted straight back after 24/25 relegation. · Baltika: Kaliningrad exclave = every away team flies over foreign airspace to get there, a unique RPL travel quirk.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Fakel (16th)

Voronezh club promoted straight back after 24/25 relegation. Fanatical support, tight Tsentralny ground. Survival-only ambitions; home noise their main weapon.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2024
Squad quality 25.4 in league · 16th of 16
Seasons 2024: 16th | 2026 so far: 16th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 FC RostovRussian Premier League
  • LH0-1 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • DH0-0 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
  • LA0-1 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • DH0-0 AkhmatRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 0,1,0,1,4
Key players Matvey Bardachev 馃嚪馃嚭 64.1, Igor Yurganov 馃嚪馃嚭 56.7, Yuriy Zhuravlev 馃嚪馃嚭 55.2, Albert Gabaraev 馃嚪馃嚭 54.7, Vyacheslav Yakimov 馃嚪馃嚭 52.6
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 17 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1
Season pulse season 2026
131616th07-25 v Dinamo Makhachkala: -2.008-02 v FC Krasnodar: -2.008-10 v Akhmat: +0.008-15 v CSKA Moscow: -2.008-22 v FC Orenburg: +0.008-29 v Zenit: -2.009-05 v FC Rostov: -3.0

Baltika (7th)

Kaliningrad exclave = every away team flies over foreign airspace to get there, a unique RPL travel quirk. Promoted as 24/25 First League champions and consolidated in 25/26. Strong home edge; lower-mid projection.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 47.9 in league · 7th of 16
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 LokomotivRussian Premier League
  • WA3-0 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 RubinRussian Premier League
  • LH1-2 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
  • WA2-0 Krylia SovetovRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 2,3,2,3,1
Key players Oleksandr Filin 67.4, Brayan Gil 馃嚫馃嚮 63.7, Eduardo Anderson 馃嚨馃嚘 61.8, Eldar 膯ivi膰 馃嚙馃嚘 61.7, Nathan Gassama 馃嚝馃嚪 60.5
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 24 路 馃嚙馃嚘 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚥馃嚘 2 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚫馃嚮 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
4167th07-24 v CSKA Moscow: -2.008-01 v Dynamo: +2.008-08 v Krylia Sovetov: +3.008-16 v Spartak Moscow: -2.008-24 v Rubin: +0.008-30 v Rodina Moskva: +4.009-06 v Lokomotiv: -2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

Zenit (5th) v Lokomotiv (13th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: ZENIT
1 62%
X 23%
2 14%
Prediction: Zenit to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%↓0.5
Match preview

The model makes Zenit clear favourites at 62%, with Lokomotiv at 14% and the draw at 23%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Zenit the stronger. Watch Maksim Glushenkov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Douglas Santos 馃嚙馃嚪 for Zenit, and Aleksei Batrakov 馃嚪馃嚭 and Dmitri Vorobyov for Lokomotiv.

Lokomotiv: Top-4 challenger powered by breakout star Aleksei Batrakov - the league's most valuable young player.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Zenit (5th)

strong at home

Saint Petersburg. Champions again: 11th title, reclaiming the crown from Krasnodar on a 15-game unbeaten run before 57k at the Gazprom Arena. Brazilian-heavy squad, biggest budget in Russia. With no UEFA football (ban), domestic dominance is the whole job.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 78.1 in league · 1st of 16
Seasons 2024: 2nd | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 5th (12 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-2 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • WA1-0 FakelRussian Premier League
  • LA0-2 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
  • WH3-0 DynamoRussian Premier League
  • LH1-2 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,3,2,1,3
Key players Aleksandr Sobolev 馃嚪馃嚭 81.2, Maksim Glushenkov 馃嚪馃嚭 80.8, Nino 馃嚙馃嚪 75.5, Jhon Jhon 馃嚙馃嚪 71.8, Wendel 馃嚙馃嚪 71.3
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 17 路 馃嚙馃嚪 9 路 馃嚚馃嚧 4 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚫馃嚠 1 路 馃嚘馃嚪 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
155th07-25 v Akron: +6.008-02 v FC Orenburg: +4.008-09 v Rodina Moskva: -2.008-16 v Dynamo: +4.008-23 v Spartak Moscow: -3.008-29 v Fakel: +2.009-05 v CSKA Moscow: -2.0

Lokomotiv (13th)

Top-4 challenger powered by breakout star Aleksei Batrakov - the league's most valuable young player. RZD Arena. Railway-backed budget stability; best-placed Moscow club to pressure Zenit and Krasnodar.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 44.9 in league · 11th of 16
Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 13th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • LH0-1 DynamoRussian Premier League
  • LA2-3 CSKA MoscowRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
  • DH0-0 AkronRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNN match totals 0,2,5,1,1
Key players C茅sar Montes 馃嚥馃嚱 72.1, Aleksandr Silyanov 68.9, Evgeni Morozov 馃嚪馃嚭 67.6, Lucas Fasson 馃嚙馃嚪 62.7, Georgiy Dzhikiya 馃嚪馃嚭 62.5
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 22 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚜馃嚚 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
101413th07-26 v Akhmat: +0.008-01 v Dinamo Makhachkala: -2.008-08 v Akron: +0.008-14 v FC Orenburg: +0.008-22 v CSKA Moscow: -2.008-29 v Dynamo: -2.009-06 v Baltika: +2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

Dynamo (4th) v FC Orenburg (11th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: DYNAMO
1 63%
X 23%
2 14%
Prediction: Dynamo to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 53%↓0.7
Match preview

The model makes Dynamo clear favourites at 63%, with FC Orenburg at 14% and the draw at 23%. Dynamo arrive on a 3-game winning run (9 scored, 6 conceded). FC Orenburg are unbeaten in five (5 scored, 5 conceded). On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Dynamo the stronger. Watch Konstantin Tyukavin 馃嚪馃嚭 and Bitello 馃嚙馃嚪 for Dynamo, and Jordhy Thompson 馃嚚馃嚤 and Emircan G眉rl眉k 馃嚬馃嚪 for FC Orenburg.

Dynamo: Moscow's entertainers and eternal underachievers: high-scoring chaos (3-5 v Lokomotiv) but no sustained challenge in 25/26; still title-less in the Russian era. · FC Orenburg: Reinstated in July 2025 after Torpedo's match-fixing expulsion, then survived via the playoff again.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Dynamo (4th)

Moscow's entertainers and eternal underachievers: high-scoring chaos (3-5 v Lokomotiv) but no sustained challenge in 25/26; still title-less in the Russian era. VTB Arena. Top-5 talent, top-8 temperament.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 71.0 in league · 3rd of 16
Seasons 2024: 5th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 4th (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
  • WA1-0 LokomotivRussian Premier League
  • WH3-1 Rodina MoskvaRussian Premier League
  • LA0-3 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • WH3-1 Dinamo MakhachkalaRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNY match totals 4,3,4,1,3
Key players Maksim Osipenko 馃嚪馃嚭 81.4, Nicol谩s Marichal 馃嚭馃嚲 75.3, Bitello 馃嚙馃嚪 73.4, David Ricardo 馃嚙馃嚪 71.9, Konstantin Tyukavin 馃嚪馃嚭 71.8
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 20 路 馃嚙馃嚪 4 路 馃嚨馃嚲 2 路 馃嚭馃嚲 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃嚚馃嚥 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
4134th07-25 v Krylia Sovetov: +0.008-01 v Baltika: -2.008-09 v Dinamo Makhachkala: +3.008-16 v Zenit: -4.008-23 v Rodina Moskva: +3.008-29 v Lokomotiv: +2.009-06 v Spartak Moscow: +2.0

FC Orenburg (11th)

Reinstated in July 2025 after Torpedo's match-fixing expulsion, then survived via the playoff again. Tiny Gazovik ground with an artificial pitch - a genuine surface quirk visitors hate. Perennial relegation candidate.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 37.3 in league · 14th of 16
Seasons 2024: 15th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 11th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 AkronRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 Spartak MoscowRussian Premier League
  • DA0-0 FakelRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 LokomotivRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 RubinRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNY match totals 2,2,0,2,4
Key players Jordhy Thompson 馃嚚馃嚤 65.8, Bogdan Ovsyannikov 馃嚪馃嚭 64.5, Aleksey Tataev 馃嚪馃嚭 62.1, Dmitri Vasiljev 馃嚪馃嚭 60.9, Gedeon Guzina 馃嚙馃嚘 58.3
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 28 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 馃嚘馃嚥 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚘馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚜 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
61111th07-26 v FC Rostov: +2.008-02 v Zenit: -4.008-09 v Rubin: +0.008-14 v Lokomotiv: +0.008-22 v Fakel: +0.008-30 v Spartak Moscow: +0.009-06 v Akron: +0.0
league draws 28% · chaos 39orderly

CSKA Moscow (2nd) v Rubin (8th)

1 55%
X 26%
2 19%
Prediction: CSKA Moscow to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 39%↓0.5
Match preview

The model makes CSKA Moscow narrow favourites at 55%, with Rubin at 19% and the draw at 26%. CSKA Moscow are unbeaten in five (8 scored, 5 conceded). Rubin are unbeaten in five (7 scored, 5 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 39%). Watch Igor Akinfeev 馃嚪馃嚭 and Kirill Glebov 馃嚪馃嚭 for CSKA Moscow, and Mirlind Daku 馃嚘馃嚤 for Rubin.

CSKA Moscow: Perennial top-4 force; 25/26 in the chasing pack behind Zenit. · Rubin: Kazan's 2008-09 champions, now steady mid-table; Ak Bars Arena.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

CSKA Moscow (2nd)

Perennial top-4 force; 25/26 in the chasing pack behind Zenit. VEB Arena. Iconic 40-year-old Akinfeev still in goal; league's best young core (Glebov, Kislyak). Cup pedigree; title outsider.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 59.9 in league · 4th of 16
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 2nd (15 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA2-1 ZenitRussian Premier League
  • DA2-2 AkronRussian Premier League
  • WH3-2 LokomotivRussian Premier League
  • WH1-0 FakelRussian Premier League
  • DH0-0 FC RostovRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 0,1,5,4,3
Key players Ivan Oblyakov 馃嚪馃嚭 78.4, Matvey Kislyak 馃嚪馃嚭 75.8, Jo茫o Victor 馃嚙馃嚪 74.3, Vladislav Torop 馃嚪馃嚭 67.1, Kirill Danilov 66.7
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 18 路 馃嚙馃嚪 8 路 馃嚘馃嚪 4 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚭馃嚳 1 路 馃嚥馃嚤 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
162nd07-24 v Baltika: +2.008-01 v Krylia Sovetov: +0.008-08 v FC Rostov: +0.008-15 v Fakel: +2.008-22 v Lokomotiv: +2.008-28 v Akron: +0.009-05 v Zenit: +2.0

Rubin (8th)

Kazan's 2008-09 champions, now steady mid-table; Ak Bars Arena. Striker Mirlind Daku carries the attack. 8th-12th projection; tough at home, blunt away.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 45.4 in league · 10th of 16
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 8th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 AkhmatRussian Premier League
  • WH3-1 Dinamo MakhachkalaRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 BaltikaRussian Premier League
  • DA1-1 FC RostovRussian Premier League
  • DH1-1 FC OrenburgRussian Premier League
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,2,2,4,2
Key players Aleksandar Juki膰 馃嚘馃嚬 64.9, Nazmi Gripshi 馃嚘馃嚤 63.1, Jacques Siwe 馃嚝馃嚪 62.5, Egor Teslenko 馃嚪馃嚭 61.3, Ilya Rozhkov 馃嚪馃嚭 60.5
Nationalities 馃嚪馃嚭 19 路 馃嚘馃嚤 3 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚚馃嚤 1 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
7148th07-26 v FC Krasnodar: -3.008-01 v Akron: +2.008-09 v FC Orenburg: +0.008-15 v FC Rostov: +0.008-24 v Baltika: +0.008-30 v Dinamo Makhachkala: +3.009-07 v Akhmat: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.