Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚨馃嚬 Liga Portugal 2

league draws 24% · chaos 72lively

Portimonense (9th) v Tondela (12th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 33%
X 28%
2 38%
Prediction: Tondela to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 42%
Match preview

The model makes Tondela the marginal call at 38%, with Portimonense at 33% and the draw at 28%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Jo茫o Reis 馃嚨馃嚬 and Samuel Lobato 馃嚨馃嚬 for Portimonense, and Costinha 馃嚨馃嚬 and Andr茅 Ceitil 馃嚨馃嚬 for Tondela.

Portimonense: Algarve club (Portim茫o), a top-flight side of recent vintage now down; the Est谩dio Municipal. · Tondela: Small Beira club (Tondela), the tiny Jo茫o Cardoso; a repeat overachiever yo-yoing with the top flight, punches above a modest budget.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Portimonense (9th)

FOREIGN CORE 93%

Algarve club (Portim茫o), a top-flight side of recent vintage now down; the Est谩dio Municipal. Develops Japanese/Brazilian talent, promotion-minded.

Seasons 2024: 16th | 2025: 16th | 2026 so far: 9th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 Uni茫o de LeiriaLiga Portugal 2
  • LH0-2 LeixoesLiga Portugal 2
  • DA1-1 Benfica BLiga Portugal 2
  • WH2-0 VizelaLiga Portugal 2
  • WA1-0 PenafielLiga Portugal 2
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNNN match totals 1,2,2,2,1
Key players Jo茫o Reis 馃嚨馃嚬, Samuel Lobato 馃嚨馃嚬, Xavier 馃嚙馃嚪
Nationalities 馃嚙馃嚪 8 路 馃嚘馃嚧 2 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚧 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆伋鬆仯鬆伌鬆伩 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
299th08-08 v Penafiel: +2.008-16 v Vizela: +3.008-21 v Benfica B: +0.008-29 v Leixoes: -3.009-06 v Uni茫o de Leiria: -2.0

Tondela (12th)

Small Beira club (Tondela), the tiny Jo茫o Cardoso; a repeat overachiever yo-yoing with the top flight, punches above a modest budget.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 1st | 2026 so far: 12th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 FC Porto BLiga Portugal 2
  • LA0-2 Uni茫o de LeiriaLiga Portugal 2
  • LH0-2 AcademicaLiga Portugal 2
  • LA0-1 LeixoesLiga Portugal 2
  • WH2-1 AmaranteLiga Portugal 2
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNY match totals 3,1,2,2,3
Key players Costinha 馃嚨馃嚬, Andr茅 Ceitil 馃嚨馃嚬, Miro 馃嚘馃嚧
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 14 路 馃嚙馃嚪 7 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 馃嚚馃嚧 2 路 馃嚚馃嚮 1 路 馃嚠馃嚜 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse season 2026
31412th08-08 v Amarante: +2.008-16 v Leixoes: -2.008-21 v Academica: -3.008-28 v Uni茫o de Leiria: -3.009-05 v FC Porto B: +4.0
league draws 24% · chaos 72lively

Felgueiras 1932 (11th) v Penafiel (3rd)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 42%
X 27%
2 31%
Prediction: Felgueiras 1932 to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 34%
Match preview

The model makes Felgueiras 1932 narrow favourites at 42%, with Penafiel at 31% and the draw at 27%. Penafiel arrive on a 3-game winning run (11 scored, 4 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 34%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Mario Rivas 馃嚜馃嚫 and Gabi Pereira 馃嚨馃嚬 for Felgueiras 1932, and 脕lvaro Santos 馃嚜馃嚫 and Reko 馃嚨馃嚬 for Penafiel.

Felgueiras 1932: Small northern club (Felgueiras), a modest second-tier presence; tiny ground. · Penafiel: Northern club (FC Penafiel), 25 de Abril; long-running second-tier fixture, modest budget, development-focused.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Felgueiras 1932 (11th)

Small northern club (Felgueiras), a modest second-tier presence; tiny ground. Minnow, survival-focused.

Seasons 2024: 9th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 11th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 VizelaLiga Portugal 2
  • WH2-1 ChavesLiga Portugal 2
  • DA1-1 FarenseLiga Portugal 2
  • DH1-1 AVSLiga Portugal 2
  • DA0-0 FeirenseLiga Portugal 2
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 0,2,2,3,1
Key players Mario Rivas 馃嚜馃嚫, Gabi Pereira 馃嚨馃嚬, Lucas Duarte 馃嚙馃嚪
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 19 路 馃嚙馃嚪 7 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚚馃嚘 1 路 馃嚙馃嚝 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
81211th08-09 v Feirense: +0.008-17 v AVS: +0.008-24 v Farense: +0.008-30 v Chaves: +2.009-06 v Vizela: -2.0

Penafiel (3rd)

Northern club (FC Penafiel), 25 de Abril; long-running second-tier fixture, modest budget, development-focused.

Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 3rd (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-1 AcademicaLiga Portugal 2
  • WA3-0 FC Porto BLiga Portugal 2
  • WH2-0 Sporting CP BLiga Portugal 2
  • DA2-2 TorreenseLiga Portugal 2
  • LH0-1 PortimonenseLiga Portugal 2
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 1,4,2,3,5
Key players 脕lvaro Santos 馃嚜馃嚫, Reko 馃嚨馃嚬, Davo 馃嚜馃嚫
Nationalities 馃嚨馃嚬 12 路 馃嚜馃嚫 9 路 馃嚞馃嚰 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚮 1 路 馃嚥馃嚤 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
2173rd08-08 v Portimonense: -2.008-15 v Torreense: +0.008-23 v Sporting CP B: +3.008-30 v FC Porto B: +4.009-05 v Academica: +4.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.