Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 3 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚢馃嚳 Kazakhstan PL

league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Irtysh (14th) v Okzhetpes (4th)

1 32%
X 26%
2 42%
Prediction: Okzhetpes to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 51%
Match preview

The model makes Okzhetpes the marginal call at 42%, with Irtysh at 32% and the draw at 26%. Okzhetpes arrive on a 3-game winning run (12 scored, 6 conceded). Watch Oralkhan Omirtayev (captain) for Okzhetpes.

Irtysh: Pavlodar institution, 5 Kazakh titles, dissolved 2020 for finance, refounded and promoted back for 2026. · Okzhetpes: Kokshetau club, historically a relegation shuttle.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Irtysh (14th)

Pavlodar institution, 5 Kazakh titles, dissolved 2020 for finance, refounded and promoted back for 2026. Emotional return but bottom of the table at the break; huge gap to safety. Historic name, third-tier-quality squad.

Seasons 2026 so far: 14th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 ZhetysuKazakhstan PL
  • WH2-1 AktobeKazakhstan PL
  • LH0-2 FK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-3 Yelimay SemeyKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-2 KaspiyKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 5,4,2,3,1
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 1
Season pulse season 2026
31614th06-20 v Zhenys: +0.006-28 v Kaisar: -2.007-05 v Kaisar: +0.007-11 v Zhenys: -2.007-25 v Ulytau: +2.008-01 v Kaspiy: +2.008-09 v Yelimay Semey: -3.008-16 v FK Tobol Kostanay: -3.008-30 v Aktobe: +2.009-05 v Zhetysu: -2.0

Okzhetpes (4th)

Kokshetau club, historically a relegation shuttle. Surprise 2026: 4th at the break (7-6-4), unbeaten at home. Tiny 4.1k Torpedo Stadium. Overperformance vs squad quality; regression risk in H2 but a live European-spot outsider.

Seasons 2023: 12th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 4th (42 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 OrdabasyKazakhstan PL
  • WA3-2 KaisarKazakhstan PL
  • WA2-0 AtyrauKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-2 FC AstanaKazakhstan PL
  • WH4-1 AltayKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,3,2,5,3
Key players Oralkhan Omirtayev (captain)
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 29 路 馃嚪馃嚫 3 路 馃嚪馃嚭 1 路 馃嚭馃嚘 1 路 馃嚟馃嚪 1
Season pulse season 2026
3114th06-27 v Kairat Almaty: -3.007-02 v Kairat Almaty: -6.007-12 v FK Tobol Kostanay: -3.007-18 v Zhetysu: +3.007-25 v Aktobe: -2.008-02 v Altay: +4.008-09 v FC Astana: -2.008-16 v Atyrau: +3.008-29 v Kaisar: +2.009-05 v Ordabasy: +2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Ulytau (8th) v Altai (16th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 47%
X 26%
2 27%
Prediction: Ulytau to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 35%
Match preview

The model makes Ulytau narrow favourites at 47%, with Altai at 27% and the draw at 26%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 35%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Sergey Keiler (captain) for Ulytau.

Ulytau: Zhezkazgan club (2.5k Metallurg Stadium, remote copper-mining town).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Ulytau (8th)

Zhezkazgan club (2.5k Metallurg Stadium, remote copper-mining town). Recently promoted, punching above weight: top-6 in 2026 (7-5-5), unbeaten early at home. Low-scoring grinders; extreme isolation makes them a bad away day.

Seasons 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 8th (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-3 FK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-0 ZhetysuKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-3 Kairat AlmatyKazakhstan PL
  • DA1-1 KaspiyKazakhstan PL
  • LH0-2 FC AstanaKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 2,2,4,3,4
Key players Sergey Keiler (captain)
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 23 路 馃嚞馃嚜 2 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 馃嚡馃嚨 1 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚥馃嚛 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
4108th06-28 v Ordabasy: -2.007-05 v Ordabasy: -2.007-12 v Kaisar: +2.007-18 v Zhenys: +0.007-25 v Irtysh: -2.008-02 v FC Astana: -3.008-08 v Kaspiy: +0.008-15 v Kairat Almaty: -3.008-29 v Zhetysu: +4.009-06 v FK Tobol Kostanay: -3.0

Altai (16th)

Semey. Oskemen (Ust-Kamenogorsk) club playing top flight for the first time in 2026 via expansion promotion. Far-east location = maximal travel burden for visitors; harsh continental climate. Predictably struggling near the bottom; survival only.

Seasons 2026 so far: 16th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 KaisarKazakhstan PL
  • LA0-1 ZhenysKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-3 OrdabasyKazakhstan PL
  • DH2-2 Kyzyl-ZharKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-4 OkzhetpesKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 5,4,4,1,2
league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Kairat Almaty (1st)🔥 v Tobol (7th)

1 71%
X 19%
2 10%
Prediction: Kairat Almaty to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 52%
Match preview

The model makes Kairat Almaty clear favourites at 71%, with Tobol at 10% and the draw at 19%. Kairat Almaty arrive on a 5-game winning run (13 scored, 2 conceded). Tobol have won 3 of their last five (8 scored, 6 conceded). Watch Jorginho 馃嚨馃嚬 and Temirlan Anarbekov 馃嚢馃嚳 for Kairat Almaty, and Askhat Tagybergen (captain) for Tobol.

Kairat Almaty: 2024+2025 champions; made history reaching 25/26 UCL league phase (hosted Real Madrid; sold teen star Satpaev to Chelsea). · Tobol: 2021 champions from the north.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Kairat Almaty (1st)🔥

2024+2025 champions; made history reaching 25/26 UCL league phase (hosted Real Madrid; sold teen star Satpaev to Chelsea). Central Stadium sells out 23k; Almaty sits ~800m altitude. 2026: 2nd, one loss in 18; title race with Ordabasy plus UCL quals.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 1st (57 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-0 ZhenysKazakhstan PL
  • WA3-0 KaspiyKazakhstan PL
  • WA2-0 Yelimay SemeyKazakhstan PL
  • LA0-3 AnderlechtUEL
  • LH0-3 AnderlechtUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 3,4,2,3,3
Key players Jorginho 馃嚨馃嚬, Temirlan Anarbekov 馃嚢馃嚳, Aleksandr Martynovich (captain)
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 18 路 馃嚙馃嚪 4 路 馃嚨馃嚬 2 路 馃嚙馃嚲 2 路 馃嚞馃嚜 2 路 馃嚠馃嚤 2 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
152nd06-17 v Kyzyl-Zhar: +4.006-21 v Kyzyl-Zhar: +3.006-27 v Okzhetpes: +3.007-02 v Okzhetpes: +6.007-18 v Atyrau: +3.007-26 v Ordabasy: +2.008-15 v Ulytau: +3.008-31 v Yelimay Semey: +3.009-05 v Kaspiy: +4.009-09 v Zhenys: +4.0

Tobol (7th)

2021 champions from the north. Sliding: poor 2026 (5-3-9 by June, heavy defeats). Small Central Stadium (9.5k), artificial surface, cold-weather matches early/late season. Mid-table at best this year; coaching churn risk.

Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 7th (31 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 UlytauKazakhstan PL
  • LA0-1 KaspiyKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-2 KaisarKazakhstan PL
  • WA2-0 IrtyshKazakhstan PL
  • LH1-2 FK PartizanUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,2,5,1,4
Key players Askhat Tagybergen (captain)

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.