Daily Football Model

2026-07-18 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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🇰🇿 Kazakhstan PL

Okzhetpes (4th) v Zhetysu (10th)

1 51%
X 25%
2 24%
Prediction: Okzhetpes to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean)
Club briefings

Okzhetpes (4th)

Kokshetau's club in the northern lake country, named after the local mountain. A classic elevator side that has spent a century bouncing between divisions; every top-flight season is a scrap.

Seasons 2023: 12th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 4th (27 pts)
Form DWLLL
Goals for 2,2,1,0,1 conceded 2,1,3,5,3
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,3,4,5,4
Key players Enzo (Brazilian), Strahinja Jovanovic (Serbian). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Zhetysu (10th)

From Taldykorgan in the southeast, runners-up in 2011 in the club's golden season. A yo-yo history since, usually built on a big cast of journeyman foreigners.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 10th (18 pts)
Form DDWLL
Goals for 2,3,1,1,0 conceded 2,3,0,2,1
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 4,6,1,3,1
Key players Mohamed Buya Turay (Sierra Leone international striker, ex-Malmo), Saidu Fofanah (Sierra Leone), Raphael Success (Nigerian). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Kyzylzhar (15th) v Tobol (11th)

draw risk: high
1 32%
X 26%
2 42%
Prediction: Tobol to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean)
Club briefings

Kyzylzhar (15th)

From Petropavl on the Russian border, the league's northernmost outpost. Reinvented themselves in the 2020s as stubborn top-flight survivors with a taste for experienced Ukrainian internationals.

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 15th (15 pts)
Form LLLLL
Goals for 0,0,2,0,0 conceded 2,3,4,2,1
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNN match totals 2,3,6,2,1
Key players Yevhen Makarenko (Ukraine international, ex-Anderlecht), Oleksandr Noyok (Ukrainian midfielder and captain), Nene Gbamble (Ivorian). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Tobol (11th)

From Kostanay in the northern steppe, champions in 2010 and again in 2021, and a fixture in the European qualifying rounds since. A well-run, unglamorous club that consistently punches at the top table.

Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 11th (18 pts)
Form WLWLW
Goals for 2,1,3,0,3 conceded 0,2,1,1,1
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 2,3,4,1,4
Key players Victor Braga (Brazilian), Marko Vukcevic (Montenegro international), Pape-Alioune Ndiaye (Senegalese). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Zhenis (8th) v Ulytau (6th)

draw risk: high
1 48%
X 26%
2 26%
Prediction: Zhenis to win (lean) · BTTS: No (strong)
Club briefings

Zhenis (8th)

The capital's original club, champions in 2000 and 2001 and cup winners several times over, long before Astana FC existed. Revived under the historic name and back in the top flight with something to prove.

Seasons 2024: 10th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 8th (21 pts)
Form LDDLW
Goals for 1,0,2,0,1 conceded 2,0,2,1,0
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 3,0,4,1,1
Key players Elguja Lobjanidze (Georgia international forward), Razak Abalora (Ghana international goalkeeper), Gian Martins (Brazilian). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Ulytau (6th)

From Zhezkazgan in the copper-mining heart of the steppe, a young club carrying a famous regional name into the top flight for the first years of its existence.

Seasons 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 6th (26 pts)
Form WDLLW
Goals for 2,0,0,0,1 conceded 1,0,1,1,0
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNNN match totals 3,0,1,1,1
Key players Kotaro Kishi (Japanese), Jovan Pajovic (Montenegrin), Jose Carrillo. From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Atyrau (9th) v Kairat Almaty (2nd)

1 20%
X 22%
2 58%
Prediction: Kairat Almaty to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean)
Club briefings

Atyrau (9th)

The oil city where the Ural river meets the Caspian. A cup win in 2009 is the trophy cabinet's centrepiece; the club's real speciality is survival, season after season, on modest means.

Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 9th (18 pts)
Form DDWLL
Goals for 1,1,2,0,1 conceded 1,1,1,2,2
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYNY match totals 2,2,3,2,3
Key players Igor Stasevich (Belarus international veteran and captain), Tsvetelin Chunchukov (Bulgarian striker), Joel Kayamba (Congolese winger). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Kairat Almaty (2nd)

The grand old club of Kazakh football, Almaty's Soviet-era flagship and the only Kazakh side that played in the USSR top league for decades. Home is the Central Stadium beneath the Tien Shan mountains. Serial cup winners, champions again in the modern era, and owners of the country's best youth academy.

Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (39 pts)
Form DWWWW
Goals for 1,3,4,3,5 conceded 1,0,2,1,0
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,3,6,4,5
Key players Jorginho (Brazilian forward, joint league top scorer), Marc Gual (Spanish striker), Sebastian Zeballos (Argentine attacker). From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Kaisar (12th) v Caspiy (13th)

1 48%
X 26%
2 27%
Prediction: Kaisar to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean)
Club briefings

Kaisar (12th)

Kyzylorda's club on the Syr Darya, cup winners in 2019, and lately a magnet for headlines by signing big veteran names. Provincial, proud, and awkward to beat at home.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 12th (18 pts)
Form WDWDL
Goals for 2,0,2,0,0 conceded 1,0,1,0,1
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 3,0,3,0,1
Key players Victor Moses (ex-Chelsea and Nigeria winger, the league's marquee veteran), Nikola Cuckic (Serbian), Thomas Jones. From the squad ratings file; last verified with the 2025 registration window.

Caspiy (13th)

Aktau's club on the Caspian shore, first-generation top-flight, still establishing themselves; sea winds, artificial turf, and long away trips for everyone who visits.

Seasons 2023: 13th | 2026 so far: 13th (17 pts)
Form LLWWW
Goals for 1,0,2,2,3 conceded 2,2,0,1,2
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 3,2,2,3,5
Key players Squad data gap in the ratings file; largely domestic squad. Run the foreign-power scraper to fill this in.