Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 5 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚢馃嚳 Kazakhstan PL

league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Caspiy (10th) v Aktobe (5th)

1 28%
X 25%
2 47%
Prediction: Aktobe to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 45%
Match preview

The model makes Aktobe narrow favourites at 47%, with Caspiy at 28% and the draw at 25%. Watch Amandyk Nabikhanov (captain) for Caspiy, and Freddy Gondola and Mateo Barac for Aktobe.

Caspiy: Aktau club on the Caspian; 2025 First Division champions, promoted for 2026. · Aktobe: Five-time champions from the west; loud Central Stadium (12.7k).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Caspiy (10th)

Aktau club on the Caspian; 2025 First Division champions, promoted for 2026. Tiny crowds (200 recorded), remote location, salt-flat winds. Fighting relegation; away trips across the country are punishing. Ultra-defensive setups.

Seasons 2023: 13th | 2026 so far: 10th (26 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-3 Kairat AlmatyKazakhstan PL
  • WH1-0 FK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan PL
  • DH2-2 Yelimay SemeyKazakhstan PL
  • DH1-1 UlytauKazakhstan PL
  • LA2-3 IrtyshKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNY match totals 5,2,4,1,3
Key players Amandyk Nabikhanov (captain)

Aktobe (5th)

Five-time champions from the west; loud Central Stadium (12.7k). 2024 UEL spot; solid 2025. 2026: upper mid-table (25pts at break), beat Tobol 4-1. Long-haul league travel and 40C summer heat are structural factors. Lento sponsorship era.

Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 5th (38 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 ZhenysKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-2 IrtyshKazakhstan PL
  • WA2-1 KaisarKazakhstan PL
  • DA1-1 AtyrauKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-3 Kyzyl-ZharKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 4,2,3,3,1
Key players Freddy Gondola, Mateo Barac
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 20 路 馃嚪馃嚧 2 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚙馃嚲 1 路 馃嚦馃嚜 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
1115th06-27 v Zhetysu: -2.007-05 v Zhetysu: +2.007-12 v FC Astana: -2.007-19 v Altay: +3.007-25 v Okzhetpes: +2.008-01 v Kyzyl-Zhar: -3.008-09 v Atyrau: +0.008-15 v Kaisar: +2.008-30 v Irtysh: -2.009-05 v Zhenys: +2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Yelimay (6th) v Zhetysu (13th)

1 67%
X 20%
2 12%
Prediction: Yelimay to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 58%
Match preview

The model makes Yelimay clear favourites at 67%, with Zhetysu at 12% and the draw at 20%. Watch Serikzhan Muzhikov (captain) for Zhetysu.

Yelimay: Semey (Semipalatinsk) club, 90s champions revived under Yelimay name. · Zhetysu: Taldykorgan club, southeast; small 4k ground.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Yelimay (6th)

Semey (Semipalatinsk) club, 90s champions revived under Yelimay name. 2025 top-4 and UECL spot; 2026 upper mid-table (24 goals scored). Decent attack by league standards; continental distraction possible.

Seasons 2024: 6th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 6th (32 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-4 FC AstanaKazakhstan PL
  • LH0-2 Kairat AlmatyKazakhstan PL
  • DA2-2 KaspiyKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-1 IrtyshKazakhstan PL
  • DA0-0 ZhenysKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYNY match totals 0,4,4,2,4

Zhetysu (13th)

Taldykorgan club, southeast; small 4k ground. Perennial strugglers; 2026 lower table (4-6-7), conceding freely (heavy losses at Astana). Relegation candidates; home points vs fellow strugglers are everything.

Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 13th (22 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 IrtyshKazakhstan PL
  • LA0-3 UlytauKazakhstan PL
  • LA1-4 ZhenysKazakhstan PL
  • LH0-4 OrdabasyKazakhstan PL
  • DA1-1 AtyrauKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,4,5,3,1
Key players Serikzhan Muzhikov (captain)
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 31 路 馃嚪馃嚭 6 路 馃嚫馃嚤 2 路 馃嚭馃嚘 1 路 馃嚙馃嚪 1 路 馃嚦馃嚞 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
61613th06-27 v Aktobe: +2.007-05 v Aktobe: -2.007-11 v Altay: -2.007-18 v Okzhetpes: -3.007-25 v Kyzyl-Zhar: -2.008-01 v Atyrau: +0.008-08 v Ordabasy: -5.008-15 v Zhenys: -4.008-29 v Ulytau: -4.009-05 v Irtysh: +2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Ordabasy (2nd) v FC Astana (3rd)🔥

1 44%
X 26%
2 30%
Prediction: Ordabasy to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
Match preview

The model makes Ordabasy narrow favourites at 44%, with FC Astana at 30% and the draw at 26%. Ordabasy have won 4 of their last five (13 scored, 3 conceded). FC Astana are unbeaten in five (12 scored, 4 conceded). Watch Serhiy Maliy (captain) and Joao Paulo for Ordabasy, and Marin Tomasov 馃嚟馃嚪 and Nazmi Gripshi 馃嚘馃嚤 for FC Astana.

Ordabasy: Shymkent club backed by the biggest stadium (20-37k) and 2023 title pedigree. · FC Astana: Record 6-time champions, 2015 UCL group alumni.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Ordabasy (2nd)

strong at home

Shymkent club backed by the biggest stadium (20-37k) and 2023 title pedigree. 2026: league leaders at the break (12-4-1, 40pts), edging Kairat by one point with a game in hand dynamics. Southern heat, big crowds; best title odds of the chasers.

Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 4th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 2nd (55 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-2 OkzhetpesKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-0 Kyzyl-ZharKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-1 AltayKazakhstan PL
  • WA4-0 ZhetysuKazakhstan PL
  • WH2-0 FK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,4,4,3,3
Key players Serhiy Maliy (captain), Joao Paulo
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 17 路 馃嚭馃嚘 3 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚥馃嚛 2 路 馃嚭馃嚳 1 路 馃嚪馃嚧 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
191st06-28 v Ulytau: +2.007-05 v Ulytau: +2.007-11 v Kaspiy: -2.007-19 v Yelimay Semey: +3.007-26 v Kairat Almaty: -2.008-02 v FK Tobol Kostanay: +3.008-08 v Zhetysu: +5.008-15 v Altay: +3.008-29 v Kyzyl-Zhar: +4.009-05 v Okzhetpes: -2.0

FC Astana (3rd)🔥

Record 6-time champions, 2015 UCL group alumni. Astana Arena (30k, retractable roof) + artificial turf + brutal winters = big home edge. 2025: 2nd tier of contenders. 2026: 3rd, 8-5-4, beat Zhetysu 4-1; chasing Ordabasy/Kairat.

Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (45 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-0 Yelimay SemeyKazakhstan PL
  • WA3-2 AtyrauKazakhstan PL
  • DA1-1 Kyzyl-ZharKazakhstan PL
  • WH2-1 OkzhetpesKazakhstan PL
  • WA2-0 UlytauKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,3,2,5,4
Key players Marin Tomasov 馃嚟馃嚪, Nazmi Gripshi 馃嚘馃嚤, Ramazan Karimov 馃嚢馃嚳
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 13 路 馃嚟馃嚪 4 路 馃嚦馃嚞 2 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚘 1 路 馃嚘馃嚤 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
173rd06-21 v Aktobe: -3.006-28 v Zhenys: +0.007-03 v Zhenys: +2.007-12 v Aktobe: +2.007-26 v Altay: +4.008-02 v Ulytau: +3.008-09 v Okzhetpes: +2.008-16 v Kyzyl-Zhar: +0.008-30 v Atyrau: +2.009-06 v Yelimay Semey: +5.0
league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Zhenis (9th) v Kyzylzhar (11th)

1 50%
X 25%
2 25%
Prediction: Zhenis to win (solid) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 40%
Match preview

The model makes Zhenis narrow favourites at 50%, with Kyzylzhar at 25% and the draw at 25%. It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 40%).

Zhenis: Astana's second club (shares Astana Arena, small crowds).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Zhenis (9th)

Astana's second club (shares Astana Arena, small crowds). 2025: 11-game unbeaten stretch, respectable. 2026: mid-table (5-6-6). Artificial turf home; benefits from capital infrastructure without capital pressure.

Seasons 2024: 10th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 9th (29 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-3 Kairat AlmatyKazakhstan PL
  • LA0-1 AktobeKazakhstan PL
  • WH1-0 AltayKazakhstan PL
  • WH4-1 ZhetysuKazakhstan PL
  • DH0-0 Yelimay SemeyKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 0,5,1,1,3

Kyzylzhar (11th)

Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 11th (24 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 AtyrauKazakhstan PL
  • LA0-3 OrdabasyKazakhstan PL
  • DH1-1 FC AstanaKazakhstan PL
  • DA2-2 AltayKazakhstan PL
  • WH3-1 AktobeKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYN match totals 4,4,2,3,1
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 16 路 馃嚭馃嚘 4 路 馃嚚馃嚠 4 路 馃嚥馃嚜 2 路 馃嚪馃嚭 2 路 馃嚥馃嚛 1 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
41511th06-21 v Kairat Almaty: -3.006-27 v Yelimay Semey: -3.007-04 v Yelimay Semey: -2.007-18 v FK Tobol Kostanay: +0.007-25 v Zhetysu: +2.008-01 v Aktobe: +3.008-08 v Altay: +0.008-16 v FC Astana: +0.008-29 v Ordabasy: -4.009-05 v Atyrau: -2.0
league draws 28% · chaos 26orderly

Kaisar (15th) v Atyrau (12th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 41%
X 26%
2 32%
Prediction: Kaisar to win (lean) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 34%
Match preview

The model makes Kaisar the marginal call at 41%, with Atyrau at 32% and the draw at 26%. Kaisar have lost 4 straight (6 scored, 11 conceded). It leans under 2.5 goals (over 2.5 at 34%). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Nurymzhan Salaidin (captain) for Kaisar, and Nikolay Signevich 馃嚙馃嚲 and Yegor Khatkevich for Atyrau.

Kaisar: Kyzylorda club, southern heat, modest 7.5k ground. · Atyrau: Caspian oil-city club; 2025 was grim (16-game winless run) yet survived via expansion.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Kaisar (15th)

Kyzylorda club, southern heat, modest 7.5k ground. Perennial lower-half; 2019 cup winners as the peak. 2026: draw-heavy (5 draws in 7 at home), lower mid-table. Limited attack; unders profile.

Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 15th (20 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 AltayKazakhstan PL
  • LH2-3 OkzhetpesKazakhstan PL
  • LA2-3 FK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan PL
  • LH1-2 AktobeKazakhstan PL
  • DA1-1 Yelimay SemeyKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,3,5,5,2
Key players Nurymzhan Salaidin (captain)
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 29
Season pulse season 2026
71515th06-20 v Ulytau: +0.006-28 v Irtysh: +2.007-05 v Irtysh: +0.007-12 v Ulytau: -2.007-18 v Kaspiy: +0.007-26 v Yelimay Semey: +0.008-15 v Aktobe: -2.008-25 v FK Tobol Kostanay: -2.008-29 v Okzhetpes: -2.009-06 v Altay: -3.0

Atyrau (12th)

Caspian oil-city club; 2025 was grim (16-game winless run) yet survived via expansion. 2026 much better: unbeaten-ish draw machine (9 draws in 16), lower mid-table. Munaishy Stadium, extreme summer heat; hard to beat, rarely win.

Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 12th (23 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 Kyzyl-ZharKazakhstan PL
  • LH2-3 FC AstanaKazakhstan PL
  • LH0-2 OkzhetpesKazakhstan PL
  • DH1-1 AktobeKazakhstan PL
  • DH1-1 ZhetysuKazakhstan PL
Over 2.5 last 5 NNNYN match totals 2,2,2,5,1
Key players Nikolay Signevich 馃嚙馃嚲, Yegor Khatkevich
Nationalities 馃嚢馃嚳 23 路 馃嚙馃嚲 6 路 馃嚞馃嚜 4 路 馃嚪馃嚭 3 路 馃嚬馃嚡 2 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
51312th06-21 v Yelimay Semey: +2.006-27 v Kaspiy: -3.007-05 v Kaspiy: -2.007-18 v Kairat Almaty: -3.007-26 v FK Tobol Kostanay: -2.008-01 v Zhetysu: +0.008-09 v Aktobe: +0.008-16 v Okzhetpes: -3.008-30 v FC Astana: -2.009-05 v Kyzyl-Zhar: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.