Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚦馃嚤 Eredivisie

league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

Excelsior (4th) v Utrecht (15th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 41%
X 25%
2 34%
Prediction: Excelsior to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 57%
vs performances: Utrecht -0.78 (4g)
Squad overlay · Utrecht stronger by 0.01, shifted the price by up to 0.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Excelsior the marginal call at 41%, with Utrecht at 34% and the draw at 25%. Excelsior have won 3 of their last five (12 scored, 5 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Gyan de Regt 馃嚦馃嚤 and Noah Naujoks 馃嚦馃嚤 for Excelsior, and Victor Jensen 馃嚛馃嚢 and David Min 馃嚦馃嚤 for Utrecht.

Excelsior: Rotterdam's small third club; survived 25/26 after promotion. · Utrecht: Sub-top regular; 25/26 upper mid-table after their strong 24/25.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Excelsior (4th)

Rotterdam's small third club; survived 25/26 after promotion. Van Donge & De Roo tiny (4.5k), artificial-turf-era legacy. Perennial relegation-playoff candidates; feeder relationship with bigger clubs.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 44.5 in league · 10th of 17
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 4th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • WA3-0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • WH2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • LH1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • WA4-0 CambuurEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,3,3,3,4
Key players Irakli Yegoian 馃嚞馃嚜 64.9, Casper Widell 馃嚫馃嚜 64.0, David Garden 57.2, Stijn van Gassel 馃嚦馃嚤 54.7, Noah Naujoks 馃嚦馃嚤 54.3
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 18 路 馃嚫馃嚜 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚢馃嚪 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
1104th08-07 v Cambuur: +6.008-15 v PSV Eindhoven: -2.908-29 v Sparta Rotterdam: +2.009-05 v Willem II: +4.009-08 v NEC Nijmegen: +0.0

Utrecht (15th)

Sub-top regular; 25/26 upper mid-table after their strong 24/25. Galgenwaard. Big-club pretensions, small-window budget. 5th-8th projection; strong home side, Europe via playoffs the target.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 45.6 in league · 8th of 17
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 15th (2 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH3-3 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • LH1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • DA3-3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • LH1-4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • LA1-2 GroningenEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,5,6,7,6
Key players Mike van der Hoorn 馃嚦馃嚤 63.3, Joris van Overeem 馃嚦馃嚤 61.4, Matisse Didden 馃嚙馃嚜 55.7, Artem Stepanov 馃嚭馃嚘 54.3, Adrian Blake 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 53.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 19 路 馃嚙馃嚜 3 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 3 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 馃嚠馃嚛 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
141715th08-09 v Groningen: -1.608-15 v AZ Alkmaar: -4.508-22 v Sparta Rotterdam: +0.108-30 v PSV Eindhoven: -6.009-08 v GO Ahead Eagles: +0.0
league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

Heerenveen (12th) v Telstar (14th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 50%
X 25%
2 25%
Prediction: Heerenveen to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 63%↑1.5
vs performances: Heerenveen +0.29 (4g) · Telstar +0.04 (3g)
Squad overlay · Heerenveen stronger by 0.01, shifted the price by up to 0.0 pts
Match preview

The model makes Heerenveen narrow favourites at 50%, with Telstar at 25% and the draw at 25%. Both teams to score looks likely at 62%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. Watch Ion Nicolaescu and Luuk Brouwers 馃嚦馃嚤 for Heerenveen, and Jeff Hardeveld 馃嚦馃嚤 and Patrick Brouwer 馃嚦馃嚤 for Telstar.

Heerenveen: Frisian mainstay; quiet mid-table 25/26.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Heerenveen (12th)

Frisian mainstay; quiet mid-table 25/26. Abe Lenstra Stadion. Sells top scorers annually. 8th-13th projection; famous for veteran-keeper longevity and solid home form.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 44.7 in league · 9th of 17
Seasons 2023: 12th | 2024: 9th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 12th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • DA2-2 Willem IIEredivisie
  • LH0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • DA2-2 AjaxEredivisie
  • WH1-0 TwenteEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 1,4,2,4,5
Key players Jacob Trenskow 馃嚛馃嚢 60.0, Sam Kersten 馃嚦馃嚤 56.6, Oliver Braude 馃嚦馃嚧 54.4, Marcus Linday 馃嚫馃嚜 52.7, Lasse Selv氓g Nord氓s 馃嚦馃嚧 51.6
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 18 路 馃嚦馃嚧 3 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 馃嚝馃嚪 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
71212th08-09 v Twente: +1.308-16 v Ajax: -0.308-22 v PEC Zwolle: -3.008-30 v Willem II: -0.209-06 v AZ Alkmaar: -2.0

Telstar (14th)

IJmuiden. Velsen minnows survived their first-ever Eredivisie season (promoted 2025) - a huge feat for a part-time-budget club. Tiny 3.6k ground. Second-season survival even harder; league's smallest operation.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 43.5 in league · 11th of 17
Seasons 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 14th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-1 TwenteEredivisie
  • DH2-2 CambuurEredivisie
  • LH0-4 AjaxEredivisie
  • LH1-3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • WA2-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 3,4,4,4,1
Key players Ronald Koeman Jr 72.5, Abdelnour Soualhia 63.5, Danny Bakker 馃嚦馃嚤 61.1, Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp 馃嚦馃嚤 55.3, Marvin Peersman 馃嚙馃嚜 53.5
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 26 路 馃嚫馃嚪 1 路 馃嚚馃嚰 1
Season pulse season 2026
41414th08-08 v NEC Nijmegen: +1.808-14 v Sparta Rotterdam: -3.408-30 v Ajax: -5.509-06 v Cambuur: +0.009-09 v Twente: -2.0
league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

PEC Zwolle (13th) v Feyenoord (3rd)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: FEYENOORD
1 18%
X 23%
2 58%
Prediction: Feyenoord to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 69%↑1.0
vs performances: PEC Zwolle -0.24 (4g) · Feyenoord -0.41 (4g)
Squad overlay · Feyenoord stronger by 0.45, shifted the price by up to 0.9 pts
Match preview

The model makes Feyenoord clear favourites at 58%, with PEC Zwolle at 18% and the draw at 23%. Feyenoord are unbeaten in five (13 scored, 7 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 64%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 69%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Feyenoord the stronger. Watch Koen Kostons 馃嚦馃嚤 and Thijs Oosting 馃嚦馃嚤 for PEC Zwolle, and Ayase Ueda 馃嚡馃嚨 and In-beom Hwang for Feyenoord.

PEC Zwolle: Survived 25/26 (despite an 8-2 loss at Heracles mid-season chaos).

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

PEC Zwolle (13th)

Survived 25/26 (despite an 8-2 loss at Heracles mid-season chaos). MAC3PARK stadium. Small squad, attack-friendly matches; relegation-playoff-zone gravity persists.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 33.3 in league · 16th of 17
Seasons 2023: 13th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 13th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • LH1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • WA2-0 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • LA1-3 TwenteEredivisie
  • LH0-2 AjaxEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYY match totals 2,4,2,4,4
Key players Younes Namli 馃嚛馃嚢 61.2, Tobias Sommer 馃嚛馃嚢 55.2, Ibrahim Cissoko 馃嚦馃嚤 54.9, Jasper Schendelaar 馃嚦馃嚤 53.8, Simon Graves Jensen 50.4
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 19 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚦馃嚳 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚚馃嚰 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
131613th08-09 v Ajax: -3.508-16 v Twente: -3.708-22 v Heerenveen: +3.008-29 v NEC Nijmegen: -3.009-04 v Sparta Rotterdam: +0.0

Feyenoord (3rd)

Rotterdam. 2nd in 25/26 behind PSV; Ayase Ueda was league top scorer (25). De Kuip iconic. Sold stars (Hancko-era exits) yet stayed competitive; UCL football again. Title challenger if the spine survives the summer window.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 72.7 in league · 2nd of 17
Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (11 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-5 BarcelonaUCL
  • WA3-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • DH2-2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • WA5-2 CambuurEredivisie
  • DH2-2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,4,7,4,4
Key players Gjivai Zechi毛l 馃嚦馃嚤 75.2, Anis Hadj Moussa 73.4, Luciano Valente 馃嚠馃嚬 64.1, Jordan Bos 馃嚘馃嚭 63.9, Ayase Ueda 馃嚡馃嚨 63.2
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 17 路 馃嚛馃嚳 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚚馃嚪 1 路 馃嚥馃嚱 1 路 +17 more
Season pulse season 2026
383rd08-09 v Sparta Rotterdam: +3.308-16 v GO Ahead Eagles: +0.708-23 v Cambuur: +4.808-30 v ADO Den Haag: +1.109-05 v NEC Nijmegen: +3.0
league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

PSV Eindhoven (2nd)🔥 v Sparta Rotterdam (11th)

↓ PSV Eindhoven TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -42
1 80%
X 17%
2 3%
Prediction: PSV Eindhoven to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 82%↑2.5
vs performances: PSV Eindhoven -0.07 (4g) · Sparta Rotterdam +0.19 (3g)
Squad overlay · PSV Eindhoven stronger by 0.31, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes PSV Eindhoven clear favourites at 80%, with Sparta Rotterdam at 3% and the draw at 17%. PSV Eindhoven arrive on a 4-game winning run (18 scored, 6 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 62%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 82%. Watch Joey Veerman 馃嚦馃嚤 and Guus Til 馃嚦馃嚤 for PSV Eindhoven, and Tobias Lauritsen 馃嚦馃嚧 and Camiel Neghli 馃嚛馃嚳 for Sparta Rotterdam.

PSV Eindhoven: Three-peat: 27th title in 25/26 with a 13-game winning run, sealed in April. · Sparta Rotterdam: Oldest Dutch pro club; safe lower-mid 25/26.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

PSV Eindhoven (2nd)🔥

strong at home

Three-peat: 27th title in 25/26 with a 13-game winning run, sealed in April. Philips Stadion. Champions League regulars, sell-and-reload machine humming. Clear title favourite again; Feyenoord the only credible threat.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 76.9 in league · 1st of 17
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 2nd (13 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUCL
  • WA3-1 AjaxEredivisie
  • WA6-1 UtrechtEredivisie
  • WH5-1 GroningenEredivisie
  • WA2-1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,3,6,7,4
Key players Sergi帽o Dest 馃嚭馃嚫 74.2, Mauro J煤nior 馃嚙馃嚪 70.8, Ivan Peri拧i膰 馃嚟馃嚪 68.4, Ryan Flamingo 馃嚦馃嚤 64.0, Sven Mijnans 馃嚦馃嚤 61.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 18 路 馃嚭馃嚫 3 路 馃嚥馃嚘 3 路 馃嚙馃嚜 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚚馃嚳 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse season 2026
1112nd08-08 v Fortuna Sittard: +0.608-15 v Excelsior: +2.908-23 v Groningen: +6.008-30 v Utrecht: +6.009-05 v Ajax: +3.0

Sparta Rotterdam (11th)

Oldest Dutch pro club; safe lower-mid 25/26. Het Kasteel castle-facade ground. Disciplined, low-scoring profile; 10th-14th projection.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 49.7 in league · 7th of 17
Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 12th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 11th (5 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • LA1-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • DH3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
  • WA3-1 TelstarEredivisie
  • LH0-1 FeyenoordEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,4,6,3,4
Key players Milan Zonneveld 馃嚦馃嚤 68.7, Marvin Young 馃嚦馃嚤 63.9, Nick Verschuren 馃嚦馃嚤 53.9, Joel Ideho 馃嚦馃嚤 53.4, Bruno Martins Indi 馃嚦馃嚤 53.3
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 19 路 馃嚦馃嚧 3 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 馃嚢馃嚥 1 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 馃嚮馃嚜 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
71211th08-09 v Feyenoord: -3.308-14 v Telstar: +3.408-22 v Utrecht: -0.108-29 v Excelsior: -2.009-04 v PEC Zwolle: +0.0

Club map · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city (temperatures unavailable offline; they refresh with the daily run); ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.