Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 4 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

← all leagues

馃嚦馃嚤 Eredivisie

league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

Twente (5th) v ADO Den Haag (16th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: TWENTE↑ Twente TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +22
1 73%
X 20%
2 8%
Prediction: Twente to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 66%↑0.6
vs performances: Twente -0.31 (3g) · ADO Den Haag -0.35 (4g)
Squad overlay · Twente stronger by 0.35, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Twente clear favourites at 73%, with ADO Den Haag at 8% and the draw at 20%. Twente have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 5 conceded). ADO Den Haag have lost 4 of their last five (6 scored, 14 conceded). It leans over 2.5 goals at 66%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Twente the stronger. Watch Ricky van Wolfswinkel 馃嚦馃嚤 and Michel Vlap 馃嚦馃嚤 for Twente.

Twente: Enschede's Grolsch Veste (30k) among the best atmospheres; 25/26 top-5 = Europa League. · ADO Den Haag: The Hague club promoted back after a five-year absence.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Twente (5th)

Enschede's Grolsch Veste (30k) among the best atmospheres; 25/26 top-5 = Europa League. Consistent sub-top operator behind the big three. Europe-race regular; title distance still real.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 69.0 in league · 3rd of 17
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 6th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 5th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH1-0 TelstarEredivisie
  • DA2-2 GroningenEredivisie
  • WA4-1 CambuurEredivisie
  • WA4-1 QarabagUECL
  • LH0-1 QarabagUECL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 1,4,5,4,1
Key players Bart van Rooij 馃嚦馃嚤 75.0, Jo毛l Drommel 馃嚦馃嚤 66.8, Sondre 脴rjas忙ter 馃嚦馃嚧 65.1, Daouda Weidmann 馃嚝馃嚪 59.1, Younes Taha 馃嚥馃嚘 57.4
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 18 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse season 2026
5135th08-09 v Heerenveen: -1.308-16 v PEC Zwolle: +3.708-30 v Cambuur: +4.609-06 v Groningen: +0.009-09 v Telstar: +2.0

ADO Den Haag (16th)

The Hague club promoted back after a five-year absence. Bingoal Stadion, notorious fanbase energy. Storks' top-flight quality untested; survival-only ambitions; home intimidation their best asset.

Style Under siege from 2020
Squad quality 38.4 in league · 15th of 17
Seasons 2026 so far: 16th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • DA2-2 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • LA1-3 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • LH1-4 GroningenEredivisie
  • LA0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,5,4,4,5
Key players Juho Kilo 馃嚝馃嚠 63.2, Kilian Niki猫ma 馃嚙馃嚝 54.0, Pascal Mulder 馃嚦馃嚤 53.8, Milan Hokke 馃嚦馃嚤 49.6, Othni毛l Raterink 馃嚦馃嚤 49.6
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 15 路 馃嚝馃嚠 3 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚞馃嚦 1 路 馃嚙馃嚝 1 路 馃嚚馃嚰 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
141716th08-08 v AZ Alkmaar: -3.908-16 v Groningen: -5.108-23 v GO Ahead Eagles: -3.008-30 v Feyenoord: -1.109-06 v Fortuna Sittard: -2.0
league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

GO Ahead Eagles (7th) v Groningen (10th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH≈ SQUAD PARITY
1 45%
X 25%
2 30%
Prediction: GO Ahead Eagles to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 61%
vs performances: GO Ahead Eagles +0.48 (4g) · Groningen +0.13 (4g)
Squad overlay · GO Ahead Eagles stronger by 0.02, shifted the price by up to 0.1 pts
Match preview

The model makes GO Ahead Eagles narrow favourites at 45%, with Groningen at 30% and the draw at 25%. Both teams to score looks likely at 62%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Mats Deijl 馃嚦馃嚤 and Evert Linthorst 馃嚦馃嚤 for GO Ahead Eagles, and Thijmen Blokzijl 馃嚦馃嚤 and Stije Resink 馃嚦馃嚤 for Groningen.

GO Ahead Eagles: Deventer cult club; another solid mid-table year (thrashed NAC 6-0), after their 24/25 cup win. · Groningen: Rollercoaster 25/26: safe, but endured a 6-game losing streak.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

GO Ahead Eagles (7th)

Deventer cult club; another solid mid-table year (thrashed NAC 6-0), after their 24/25 cup win. Adelaarshorst old-school and tight. Overachievement now the norm; European hangover finally shed.

Style Under siege from 2025
Squad quality 41.1 in league · 12th of 17
Seasons 2023: 8th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 7th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
  • LA2-5 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • WH3-1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • DA2-2 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • WH4-1 Willem IIEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 5,4,4,7,6
Key players S酶ren Tengstedt 馃嚛馃嚢 62.5, Julius Dirksen 馃嚦馃嚤 57.0, Melle Meulensteen 馃嚦馃嚤 54.3, Mathis Suray 馃嚙馃嚜 52.3🔥, Joris Kramer 馃嚦馃嚤 49.9
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 19 路 馃嚙馃嚜 4 路 馃嚛馃嚢 3 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 2 路 +1 more
Season pulse season 2026
287th08-08 v Willem II: +4.508-16 v Feyenoord: -0.708-23 v ADO Den Haag: +3.008-29 v AZ Alkmaar: -4.309-08 v Utrecht: +0.0

Groningen (10th)

Rollercoaster 25/26: safe, but endured a 6-game losing streak. Euroborg decent size. Youth pipeline (Suarez lineage nostalgia). Lower-mid projection; streaky in both directions.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 39.2 in league · 14th of 17
Seasons 2024: 13th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 10th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 TwenteEredivisie
  • LH2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • LA1-5 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • WA4-1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • WH2-1 UtrechtEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,5,6,5,4
Key players David van der Werff 馃嚦馃嚤 61.1, Marco Rente 馃嚛馃嚜 58.6, Thom van Bergen 馃嚦馃嚤 57.6, Tygo Land 馃嚦馃嚤 55.7, M谩rk Csinger 馃嚟馃嚭 52.3
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 17 路 馃嚱馃嚢 2 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚙馃嚜 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
21010th08-09 v Utrecht: +1.608-16 v ADO Den Haag: +5.108-23 v PSV Eindhoven: -6.008-28 v Fortuna Sittard: -1.709-06 v Twente: +0.0
league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

Fortuna Sittard (6th) v Ajax (8th)

↓ Ajax TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -31
1 24%
X 24%
2 52%
Prediction: Ajax to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 61%↑1.0
vs performances: Fortuna Sittard +1.07 (4g) · Ajax +0.39 (3g)
Squad overlay · Ajax stronger by 0.25, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
Match preview

The model makes Ajax narrow favourites at 52%, with Fortuna Sittard at 24% and the draw at 24%. Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last five (11 scored, 9 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 61%. Watch Kaj Sierhuis 馃嚦馃嚤 and Justin Lonwijk 馃嚦馃嚤 for Fortuna Sittard, and Kenneth Taylor 馃嚦馃嚤 and Mika Godts 馃嚙馃嚜 for Ajax.

Fortuna Sittard: Limburg survivors; lower mid-table 25/26, safe without drama.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Fortuna Sittard (6th)

Limburg survivors; lower mid-table 25/26, safe without drama. Small budget, compact ground. 10th-15th projection; home points vs fellow strugglers decide it.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 40.2 in league · 13th of 17
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 11th | 2025: 11th | 2026 so far: 6th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA3-2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • WA3-2 GroningenEredivisie
  • LH0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • WH3-1 CambuurEredivisie
  • DA2-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 4,4,2,5,5
Key players Mohamed Ihattaren 馃嚦馃嚤 65.8, Syb van Ottele 馃嚦馃嚤 57.7, Lequincio Zeefuik 馃嚦馃嚤 52.0, 脡douard Michut 馃嚝馃嚪 51.7, Mattijs Branderhorst 馃嚦馃嚤 51.6
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 19 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚪 1 路 馃嚨馃嚬 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse season 2026
2106th08-08 v PSV Eindhoven: -0.608-15 v Cambuur: +2.708-22 v AZ Alkmaar: -5.008-28 v Groningen: +1.709-06 v ADO Den Haag: +2.0

Ajax (8th)

draw merchants

Amsterdam. Crisis era continues: only 6th-ish in 25/26, taking the Conference League spot; announced a return to the iconic old club logo to rally fans. Johan Cruijff ArenA still 54k. Rebuild under scrutiny; brand vs current level mismatch = value on opponents.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 62.6 in league · 5th of 17
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 8th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • WA4-0 TelstarEredivisie
  • WH5-3 FC SionUECL
  • WA4-2 FC SionUECL
  • DH2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NNYYY match totals 0,2,4,4,4
Key players Lucas Rosa 馃嚙馃嚪 65.6, Steven Berghuis 馃嚦馃嚤 64.4, Youri Baas 馃嚦馃嚤 63.3, Tolu Arokodare 馃嚦馃嚞 61.6, Oscar Gloukh 馃嚠馃嚤 58.1
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 26 路 馃嚙馃嚜 3 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 2 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse season 2026
498th08-09 v PEC Zwolle: +3.508-16 v Heerenveen: +0.308-30 v Telstar: +5.509-05 v PSV Eindhoven: -3.0
league draws 26% · chaos 70lively

Cambuur (18th) v NEC Nijmegen (9th)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: NEC NIJMEGEN
1 18%
X 23%
2 59%
Prediction: NEC Nijmegen to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 80%↑0.7
vs performances: Cambuur -0.76 (4g) · NEC Nijmegen +0.24 (3g)
Squad overlay · NEC Nijmegen stronger by 0.38, shifted the price by up to 0.8 pts
Match preview

The model makes NEC Nijmegen clear favourites at 59%, with Cambuur at 18% and the draw at 23%. Cambuur have lost 4 of their last five (6 scored, 18 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 74%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 80%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with NEC Nijmegen the stronger. Watch Kodai Sano 馃嚡馃嚨 and Vito van Crooij 馃嚦馃嚤 for NEC Nijmegen.

Cambuur: Leeuwarden club promoted back after three years; new Cambuur Stadion opened recently. · NEC Nijmegen: Fairytale 3rd in 25/26 = Champions League qualification, the club's best finish in decades.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Cambuur (18th)

Leeuwarden club promoted back after three years; new Cambuur Stadion opened recently. Frisian identity, hostile crowd. Promoted-side survival battle; physical, direct.

Style Fast and clean from 2022
Squad quality 24.1 in league · 17th of 17
Seasons 2026 so far: 18th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA2-2 TelstarEredivisie
  • LH1-4 TwenteEredivisie
  • LH2-5 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • LA1-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • LH0-4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,4,7,5,4
Key players Rafik El Arguioui 馃嚦馃嚤 55.0, Devid Bouah 馃嚠馃嚬 48.7, Isma毛l Baouf 馃嚙馃嚜 48.4, Ilyes Hamache 馃嚝馃嚪 47.1, Iwan Henstra 馃嚦馃嚤 46.8
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 20 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚛馃嚜 1 路 馃嚝馃嚠 1 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚫馃嚜 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
171818th08-07 v Excelsior: -6.008-15 v Fortuna Sittard: -2.708-23 v Feyenoord: -4.808-30 v Twente: -4.609-06 v Telstar: +0.0

NEC Nijmegen (9th)

strong away

Fairytale 3rd in 25/26 = Champions League qualification, the club's best finish in decades. Goffert bouncing. Modest budget punching massively; regression likely, but UCL money changes their ceiling permanently.

Style Territorial control from 2025
Squad quality 57.9 in league · 6th of 17
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 9th (7 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DH2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • LH1-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • WA3-1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • LA0-3 Bodo/GlimtUCL
  • LH1-3 Bodo/GlimtUCL
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,5,4,4,4
Key players Darko Neja拧mi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 64.7, Tjaronn Chery 馃嚫馃嚪 60.2, Deveron Fonville 馃嚦馃嚤 59.4, Kaj Sierhuis 馃嚦馃嚤 58.8, Sami Ouaissa 馃嚦馃嚤 57.7
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 21 路 馃嚡馃嚨 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚫馃嚪 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
7159th08-08 v Telstar: -1.808-15 v Willem II: +4.808-29 v PEC Zwolle: +3.009-05 v Feyenoord: -3.009-08 v Excelsior: +0.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.