Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 1 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚦馃嚤 Eerste Divisie

league draws 22% · chaos 85volatile

Roda (9th) v Vitesse (6th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH
1 42%
X 24%
2 34%
Prediction: Roda to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 54%
vs performances: Roda +0.18 (4g) · Vitesse +0.16 (4g)
Squad overlay · Vitesse stronger by 0.06, shifted the price by up to 0.3 pts
Match preview

The model makes Roda narrow favourites at 42%, with Vitesse at 34% and the draw at 24%. Vitesse have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 7 conceded). This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Anthony van den Hurk 馃嚚馃嚰 and Michael Breij 馃嚦馃嚤 for Roda, and Adam Tahaui 馃嚦馃嚤 and Marco Schikora 馃嚛馃嚜 for Vitesse.

Roda: Kerkrade club (Roda JC), Parkstad Limburg; historic cup winner long fallen to the second tier, loyal Limburg following, promotion-minded. · Vitesse: Arnhem club, former Eredivisie fixture and European regular hit by a licence/financial crisis and points deductions; GelreDome.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Roda (9th)

Kerkrade club (Roda JC), Parkstad Limburg; historic cup winner long fallen to the second tier, loyal Limburg following, promotion-minded.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 56.6 in league · 10th of 20
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 12th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 9th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • DA1-1 MVVEerste Divisie
  • DH2-2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • WA1-0 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • WH2-1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • LA0-1 EmmenEerste Divisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNYN match totals 1,3,1,4,2
Key players Lucas Beerten 馃嚙馃嚜 39.1, Joshua Nisbet 馃嚘馃嚭 36.9, Marco Tol 馃嚦馃嚤 36.0, Justin Treichel 馃嚛馃嚜 34.6, Bram Marsman 馃嚦馃嚤 33.0
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 12 路 馃嚙馃嚜 5 路 馃嚛馃嚜 5 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 馃嚚馃嚰 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse season 2026
5199th08-07 v Emmen: -2.008-14 v Helmond Sport: +3.308-21 v Dordrecht: +1.908-28 v NAC Breda: -0.509-06 v MVV: +0.0

Vitesse (6th)

Arnhem club, former Eredivisie fixture and European regular hit by a licence/financial crisis and points deductions; GelreDome. Rebuilding from turmoil, uncertain footing.

Style Direct and dangerous from 2025
Squad quality 67.1 in league · 1st of 20
Seasons 2024: 14th | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 6th (10 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • WA4-1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • LH0-3 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • WA3-1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • DH1-1 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 2,4,3,5,3
Key players Naoufal Bannis 馃嚥馃嚘 43.4, Marco Schikora 馃嚛馃嚜 38.1, Connor van den Berg 馃嚦馃嚤 37.5, Omar Achouitar 37.3, Nino Zonneveld 馃嚦馃嚤 36.2
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 20 路 馃嚛馃嚜 5 路 馃嚥馃嚘 1 路 馃嚚馃嚰 1 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 +2 more
Season pulse season 2026
5146th08-07 v Waalwijk: +0.108-17 v Jong Utrecht: +4.308-21 v Almere City FC: -4.008-28 v Den Bosch: +3.309-04 v FC OSS: +2.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.