Daily Football Model

2026-10-02 · 1 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚦馃嚤 Eerste Divisie

league draws 21% · chaos 62lively

Helmond Sport (14th) v Heracles (1st)

⚡ SQUAD GAP: HERACLES
1 18%
X 22%
2 60%
Prediction: Heracles to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 65%
vs performances: Helmond Sport -0.35 (4g) · Heracles +1.10 (4g)
Squad overlay · Heracles stronger by 0.19, shifted the price by up to 0.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Heracles clear favourites at 60%, with Helmond Sport at 18% and the draw at 22%. Heracles have won 4 of their last five (13 scored, 4 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 63%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 65%. On player-level quality the squads are far apart, with Heracles the stronger. Watch Noah Makanza 馃嚚馃嚛 and Lennerd Daneels 馃嚙馃嚜 for Helmond Sport, and David Vicente for Heracles.

Helmond Sport: Brabant club, small ground; perennial lower-table second-tier side, modest budget, development-focused. · Heracles: Almelo club (Heracles), Erve Asito; a long-running Eredivisie side recently dropped, well-run, develops and sells, loyal Twente-region support.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Helmond Sport (14th)

Brabant club, small ground; perennial lower-table second-tier side, modest budget, development-focused.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 40.9 in league · 15th of 20
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 13th | 2025: 18th | 2026 so far: 14th (8 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA0-2 MVVEerste Divisie
  • LA1-2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • WH3-1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • WH4-2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • LA2-3 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYN match totals 5,6,4,3,2
Key players Pol Llonch 馃嚜馃嚫 36.8, Flor Van Den Eynden 馃嚙馃嚜 33.7, Brian Koglin 馃嚛馃嚜 33.5, Livio Cicero 32.2, Amir Absalem 馃嚦馃嚤 32.1
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 10 路 馃嚛馃嚜 4 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 1 路 馃嚚馃嚰 1 路 馃嚚馃嚛 1 路 +5 more
Season pulse season 2026
91814th08-09 v De Graafschap: -0.308-14 v Roda: -3.308-21 v Waalwijk: +0.008-28 v Jong Ajax: -2.209-04 v VVV Venlo: +3.009-11 v Jong PSV U21: +3.009-18 v Den Bosch: -2.009-26 v MVV: -3.0

Heracles (1st)

strong away

Almelo club (Heracles), Erve Asito; a long-running Eredivisie side recently dropped, well-run, develops and sells, loyal Twente-region support.

Style Long ball, physical from 2022
Squad quality 76.7 in league · 1st of 20
Seasons 2026 so far: 1st (21 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH2-0 VitesseEerste Divisie
  • LA0-1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • WH3-2 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • WH5-0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • WA3-1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYNN match totals 4,5,5,1,2
Key players J. N'djoli 44.8, Sem Scheperman 馃嚦馃嚤 44.1, Jean-Paul N'Djoli 43.7, Tristan van Gilst 馃嚦馃嚤 41.7, Damon Mirani 馃嚦馃嚤 38.9
Nationalities 馃嚦馃嚤 14 路 馃嚛馃嚜 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚘馃嚭 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚫馃嚢 1 路 +8 more
Season pulse season 2026
141st08-07 v VVV Venlo: +3.508-14 v Den Bosch: +1.908-24 v Jong Utrecht: +6.008-30 v FC Eindhoven: +3.509-04 v De Graafschap: +6.009-11 v Jong AZ: +2.009-18 v Almere City FC: -2.009-26 v Vitesse: +3.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.