Daily Football Model

2026-09-13 · 2 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

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馃嚛馃嚜 Bundesliga

league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

RB Leipzig (8th) v Hamburger SV (18th)

↓ RB Leipzig TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -67
1 65%
X 23%
2 13%
Prediction: RB Leipzig to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 62%↑1.5
Squad overlay · RB Leipzig stronger by 0.24, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes RB Leipzig clear favourites at 65%, with Hamburger SV at 13% and the draw at 23%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 62%. Watch Antonio Nusa 馃嚦馃嚧 and Castello Lukeba 馃嚝馃嚪 for RB Leipzig, and Daniel Elfadli 馃嚤馃嚲 and Jean-Luc Dompe for Hamburger SV.

RB Leipzig: 3rd-4th in 25/26, back in the UCL, with statement wins (6-0 at Augsburg). · Hamburger SV: Survived their 25/26 top-flight return after finally escaping 2.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

RB Leipzig (8th)

FOREIGN CORE 71%

3rd-4th in 25/26, back in the UCL, with statement wins (6-0 at Augsburg). Red Bull Arena. Post-star-sales reload worked. Perennial top-4 machine without a title punch; solid points banker.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 57.6 in league · 4th of 13
Seasons 2023: 4th | 2024: 7th | 2025: 3rd | 2026 so far: 8th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-4 ComoUCL
  • LA1-3 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • WH3-0 Borussia M枚nchengladbachBundesliga
  • LA1-4 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • WH2-1 FC St. PauliBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 5,3,5,3,4
Key players Willi Orb谩n 馃嚟馃嚭 81.4, David Raum 馃嚛馃嚜 78.2, Brajan Gruda 馃嚛馃嚜 76.3, Castello Lukeba 馃嚝馃嚪 75.7, Antonio Nusa 馃嚦馃嚧 73.3
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 10 路 馃嚙馃嚜 5 路 馃嚘馃嚬 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚟馃嚭 2 路 +7 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
2193rd03-07 v FC Augsburg: +1.503-15 v VfB Stuttgart: -2.103-20 v 1899 Hoffenheim: +6.004-04 v Werder Bremen: +2.004-11 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: +2.304-18 v Eintracht Frankfurt: +3.304-24 v Union Berlin: +5.205-02 v Bayer Leverkusen: -5.605-09 v FC St. Pauli: +2.305-16 v SC Freiburg: -4.1

Hamburger SV (18th)

FOREIGN CORE 71%

Survived their 25/26 top-flight return after finally escaping 2. Bundesliga. Volksparkstadion 57k, city energised. Second-season stabilisation mission; squad still thin for mid-table ambitions. Home form must carry them.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 36.6 in league · 10th of 13
Seasons 2025: 13th | 2026 so far: 18th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • LA0-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • DA1-1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • WH3-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • WA2-1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,5,2,2,5
Key players Daniel Heuer Fernandes 馃嚨馃嚬 75.8, F谩bio Vieira 馃嚨馃嚬 72.7, Miro Muheim 馃嚚馃嚟 69.5, Albert Sambi Lokonga 馃嚙馃嚜 68.7, Martin Adeline 馃嚝馃嚪 67.2
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 11 路 馃嚝馃嚪 5 路 馃嚨馃嚬 4 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚦馃嚧 2 路 +12 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
91711th03-07 v VfL Wolfsburg: +1.803-14 v 1. FC K枚ln: -0.403-21 v Borussia Dortmund: -4.204-04 v FC Augsburg: -0.304-12 v VfB Stuttgart: -6.004-18 v Werder Bremen: -3.604-25 v 1899 Hoffenheim: -2.005-02 v Eintracht Frankfurt: +2.005-10 v SC Freiburg: +2.805-16 v Bayer Leverkusen: -0.7
league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

SV Elversberg (4th) v Bayern M眉nchen (6th)

↑ Bayern M眉nchen TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +35
1 15%
X 24%
2 61%
Prediction: Bayern M眉nchen to win (strong) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 82%
Match preview

The model makes Bayern M眉nchen clear favourites at 61%, with SV Elversberg at 15% and the draw at 24%. Bayern M眉nchen are unbeaten in five (14 scored, 5 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 74%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 82%. Watch Younes Ebnoutalib 馃嚛馃嚜 and Carlo Sickinger 馃嚛馃嚜 for SV Elversberg, and Harry Kane 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 and Jamal Musiala 馃嚛馃嚜 for Bayern M眉nchen.

SV Elversberg: Saarland village club (Spiesen-Elversberg, pop ~13k) promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time ever, finishing 2nd in 2.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

SV Elversberg (4th)

Saarland village club (Spiesen-Elversberg, pop ~13k) promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time ever, finishing 2nd in 2. Bundesliga (beat Furth 6-0). Ursapharm-Arena holds ~10k - smallest in league history. Pure fairytale; survival odds long.

Seasons 2026 so far: 4th (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-3 Borussia M枚nchengladbachBundesliga
  • WH3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • WH3-0 Preu脽en M眉nster2. Bundesliga
  • LA1-3 Fortuna D眉sseldorf2. Bundesliga
  • WH5-1 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYY match totals 4,3,5,7
Key players Lukas Petkov 馃嚙馃嚞 73.3, Maximilian Rohr 馃嚛馃嚜 69.4, Jan Gyamerah 馃嚞馃嚟 66.2, David Mokwa 馃嚝馃嚪 64.3, Lukas Finn Pinckert 馃嚛馃嚜 64.0
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 20 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚬馃嚟 1 路 +3 more
Season pulse season 2026
374th08-29 v Bayer Leverkusen: +1.609-05 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: +2.0

Bayern M眉nchen (6th)

strong away

Munich. Crushing 34th title: record 122 league goals, Kane a record-chasing 36, champions by April. DFB-Pokal double meant their UEL spot passed down. Allianz sold out at 75k. Untouchable domestically; only complacency and UCL distraction slow them.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 86.6 in league · 1st of 13
Seasons 2023: 3rd | 2024: 1st | 2025: 1st | 2026 so far: 6th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH5-0 Bodo/GlimtUCL
  • DA0-0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • WH5-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • WH5-1 1. FC K枚lnBundesliga
  • WA1-0 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYN match totals 6,1,6,6,0
Key players Michael Olise 馃嚝馃嚪 88.3, Harry Kane 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 86.9, Joshua Kimmich 馃嚛馃嚜 85.3, Dayot Upamecano 馃嚝馃嚪 80.4, Luis D铆az 馃嚚馃嚧 79.2
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 18 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚨馃嚬 3 路 馃嚫馃嚦 2 路 馃嚠馃嚤 1 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
111st03-06 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: +5.003-14 v Bayer Leverkusen: -1.003-21 v Union Berlin: +6.004-04 v SC Freiburg: +2.604-11 v FC St. Pauli: +6.004-19 v VfB Stuttgart: +4.604-25 v FSV Mainz 05: +1.805-02 v 1. FC Heidenheim: -0.105-09 v VfL Wolfsburg: +1.405-16 v 1. FC K枚ln: +6.0

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.