Daily Football Model

2026-09-12 · 6 fixtures · probabilities recomputed daily from ten seasons of results

Track record → Live record → Analytics → Squads → Players → Conviction → Draw Lab BTTS Lab Unpredictable League DNA → Conviction+Transfers → Intel →

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馃嚛馃嚜 Bundesliga

league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

Borussia Dortmund (3rd) v SC Paderborn 07 (12th)

↑ Borussia Dortmund TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +30↑ SC Paderborn 07 TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +21
1 72%
X 21%
2 7%
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win (strong) · BTTS: No (lean) · Over 2.5: 47%↓3.0
Squad overlay · Borussia Dortmund stronger by 0.30, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites at 72%, with SC Paderborn 07 at 7% and the draw at 21%. Borussia Dortmund arrive on a 4-game winning run (10 scored, 5 conceded). Watch Serhou Guirassy 馃嚞馃嚦 and Nico Schlotterbeck 馃嚛馃嚜 for Borussia Dortmund, and Noel Futkeu 馃嚛馃嚜 and Adriano Grimaldi 馃嚛馃嚜 for SC Paderborn 07.

Borussia Dortmund: 2nd in 25/26 - best finish in years, back as Bayern's closest chaser. · SC Paderborn 07: Promoted via the playoff - a 99th-minute winner at home sank Wolfsburg after 0-0 away.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

Borussia Dortmund (3rd)

strong at home

2nd in 25/26 - best finish in years, back as Bayern's closest chaser. Yellow Wall 81k, best home atmosphere in Europe. Young stars cycle continues. Gap to Bayern still real; UCL regulars, title outsiders.

Style Long ball, physical from 2025
Squad quality 61.5 in league · 3rd of 13
Seasons 2023: 5th | 2024: 4th | 2025: 2nd | 2026 so far: 3rd (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-2 VillarrealUCL
  • WA3-2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • WH2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • WA2-0 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • WH3-2 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYNNY match totals 1,5,2,2,5
Key players Nico Schlotterbeck 馃嚛馃嚜 82.4, Serhou Guirassy 馃嚞馃嚦 79.1, Ramy Bensebaini 78.6, Waldemar Anton 馃嚛馃嚜 77.9, Julian Ryerson 馃嚦馃嚧 74.3
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 17 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚠馃嚬 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚛馃嚳 1 路 +9 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
292nd03-07 v 1. FC K枚ln: +2.403-14 v FC Augsburg: +3.903-21 v Hamburger SV: +4.204-04 v VfB Stuttgart: +2.904-11 v Bayer Leverkusen: -1.704-18 v 1899 Hoffenheim: -2.804-26 v SC Freiburg: +6.005-03 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: -2.905-08 v Eintracht Frankfurt: +2.405-16 v Werder Bremen: +4.1

SC Paderborn 07 (12th)

Promoted via the playoff - a 99th-minute winner at home sank Wolfsburg after 0-0 away. Home Deluxe Arena tiny (15k). Historically the league's most open, chaotic matches; entertaining relegation favourite.

Style Territorial control from 2019
Squad quality 35.2 in league · 11th of 13
Seasons 2026 so far: 12th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • DA0-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • WH2-1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • DA0-0 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • WA2-0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYNN match totals 5,0,3,0,1
Key players Nahuel Noll 馃嚛馃嚜 71.2, Laurin Curda 馃嚛馃嚜 70.3, Raphael Obermair 馃嚛馃嚜 67.0, Mattes Hansen 馃嚛馃嚜 66.1, Tjark Lasse Scheller 馃嚛馃嚜 65.4
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 19 路 馃嚭馃嚫 1
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
05-21 v VfL Wolfsburg: +0.0
league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

1899 Hoffenheim (16th) v VfB Stuttgart (9th)

↑ VfB Stuttgart TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +25
1 37%
X 27%
2 36%
Prediction: 1899 Hoffenheim to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 75%↑2.9
xG overlay · 1899 Hoffenheim better on chances than on results by 0.67 goals, shifted the price by up to 3.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes 1899 Hoffenheim the marginal call at 37%, with VfB Stuttgart at 36% and the draw at 27%. 1899 Hoffenheim have lost 3 straight (8 scored, 13 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 72%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 75%. Watch Andrej Kramaric and Fisnik Asllani 馃嚛馃嚜 for 1899 Hoffenheim, and Deniz Undav 馃嚛馃嚜 and Angelo Stiller 馃嚛馃嚜 for VfB Stuttgart.

VfB Stuttgart: Top-4 again in 25/26 and back in the UCL despite losing 4-2 at Bayern on the title day.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

1899 Hoffenheim (16th)

Sinsheim. Shock 5th in 25/26 = Europa League. Small-town Kraichgau club, PreZero Arena, modest crowds. Overperformance vs wage bill; regression risk high, but recruitment was sharp. Europe/league balance untested recently.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 46.3 in league · 7th of 13
Seasons 2023: 7th | 2024: 16th | 2025: 5th | 2026 so far: 16th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • LA2-3 1. FC K枚lnBundesliga
  • LA0-4 Borussia M枚nchengladbachBundesliga
  • WH1-0 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • DH3-3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNYYY match totals 6,1,4,5,5
Key players Vladim铆r Coufal 馃嚚馃嚳 76.0, Andrej Kramari膰 馃嚟馃嚪 72.1, Ozan Kabak 馃嚬馃嚪 71.3, Wouter Burger 馃嚦馃嚤 70.5, Bernardo 馃嚙馃嚪 70.4
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 13 路 馃嚦馃嚞 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 3 路 馃嚚馃嚳 3 路 馃嚬馃嚪 2 路 馃嚙馃嚪 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
3145th03-07 v 1. FC Heidenheim: +3.603-14 v VfL Wolfsburg: +0.803-20 v RB Leipzig: -6.004-04 v FSV Mainz 05: -2.504-10 v FC Augsburg: -0.504-18 v Borussia Dortmund: +2.804-25 v Hamburger SV: +2.005-02 v VfB Stuttgart: +0.505-09 v Werder Bremen: +2.205-16 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: -4.8

VfB Stuttgart (9th)

Top-4 again in 25/26 and back in the UCL despite losing 4-2 at Bayern on the title day. MHPArena 60k. Youth-machine (Woltemade lineage) keeps replacing sold stars. Established top-4/6 force now.

Seasons 2023: 2nd | 2024: 9th | 2025: 4th | 2026 so far: 9th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 VikingUCL
  • WH4-1 1. FC K枚lnBundesliga
  • LA1-5 Bayern M眉nchenBundesliga
  • DA2-2 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • WH3-1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 6,4,4,6,5
Key players Maximilian Mittelst盲dt 馃嚛馃嚜 84.0, Chris F眉hrich 馃嚛馃嚜 77.5, Bilal El Khannouss 馃嚥馃嚘 76.3, Angelo Stiller 馃嚛馃嚜 76.0, Deniz Undav 馃嚛馃嚜 75.7
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 18 路 馃嚪馃嚫 2 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚜馃嚫 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚛馃嚢 1 路 +6 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
3154th03-07 v FSV Mainz 05: -0.903-15 v RB Leipzig: +2.103-22 v FC Augsburg: +5.004-04 v Borussia Dortmund: -2.904-12 v Hamburger SV: +6.004-19 v Bayern M眉nchen: -4.604-26 v Werder Bremen: +0.505-02 v 1899 Hoffenheim: -0.505-09 v Bayer Leverkusen: +4.205-16 v Eintracht Frankfurt: -0.6
league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

SC Freiburg (2nd) v Borussia M枚nchengladbach (17th)

≈ SQUAD PARITY↓ SC Freiburg TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -29
1 55%
X 24%
2 21%
Prediction: SC Freiburg to win (solid) · BTTS: Yes (lean) · Over 2.5: 56%↓1.1
Squad overlay · SC Freiburg stronger by 0.05, shifted the price by up to 0.4 pts
Match preview

The model makes SC Freiburg narrow favourites at 55%, with Borussia M枚nchengladbach at 21% and the draw at 24%. SC Freiburg arrive on a 3-game winning run (12 scored, 6 conceded). Watch Vincenzo Grifo 馃嚠馃嚬 and Johan Manzambi 馃嚚馃嚟 for SC Freiburg, and Tim Kleindienst 馃嚛馃嚜 and Rocco Reitz 馃嚛馃嚜 for Borussia M枚nchengladbach.

SC Freiburg: 7th = Conference League, another overachieving Streich-legacy season. · Borussia M枚nchengladbach: Mid-table again; conceded a wild 4-6 home loss to Frankfurt.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

SC Freiburg (2nd)

7th = Conference League, another overachieving Streich-legacy season. Europa-Park Stadion. Best-run mid-sized club in Germany; set-piece elite. Europe adds load, but 6th-9th is their steady state.

Style Frugal finishers from 2025
Squad quality 49.0 in league · 6th of 13
Seasons 2023: 10th | 2024: 5th | 2025: 7th | 2026 so far: 2nd (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA1-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • WH4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • WH4-1 MotherwellUECL
  • WA3-1 MotherwellUECL
  • LH0-3 Aston VillaUEL
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYN match totals 2,5,5,5,1
Key players Matthias Ginter 馃嚛馃嚜 82.6, Igor Matanovi膰 馃嚟馃嚪 79.1, Yuito Suzuki 馃嚡馃嚨 69.1, Vincenzo Grifo 馃嚠馃嚬 68.6, Jan-Niklas Beste 馃嚛馃嚜 68.2
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 19 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 馃嚞馃嚟 1 路 馃嚠馃嚬 1 路 +4 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
7197th03-07 v Bayer Leverkusen: +0.303-15 v Union Berlin: -1.703-22 v FC St. Pauli: +2.304-04 v Bayern M眉nchen: -2.604-12 v FSV Mainz 05: +2.004-19 v 1. FC Heidenheim: +2.004-26 v Borussia Dortmund: -6.005-03 v VfL Wolfsburg: +0.105-10 v Hamburger SV: -2.805-16 v RB Leipzig: +4.1

Borussia M枚nchengladbach (17th)

Mid-table again; conceded a wild 4-6 home loss to Frankfurt. Borussia-Park big but expectation-heavy. Long rebuild, no Europe. Goals-both-ends profile; 8th-13th range.

Style Patient but blunt from 2025
Squad quality 44.3 in league · 9th of 13
Seasons 2023: 15th | 2024: 10th | 2025: 12th | 2026 so far: 17th (0 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH3-4 SV ElversbergBundesliga
  • LA0-3 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • WH4-0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • LA1-3 FC AugsburgBundesliga
  • WH1-0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 NYYYY match totals 1,4,4,3,7
Key players Moritz Nicolas 馃嚛馃嚜 82.5, Hugo Bolin 馃嚫馃嚜 76.1, Daniel Batz 馃嚛馃嚜 75.5, Franck Honorat 馃嚝馃嚪 71.4, Kevin Diks 馃嚦馃嚤 69.7
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 17 路 馃嚡馃嚨 3 路 馃嚚馃嚟 3 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚭馃嚫 2 路 馃嚚馃嚳 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
91813th03-06 v Bayern M眉nchen: -5.003-13 v FC St. Pauli: +3.103-21 v 1. FC K枚ln: -0.204-04 v 1. FC Heidenheim: -0.204-11 v RB Leipzig: -2.304-19 v FSV Mainz 05: -0.804-25 v VfL Wolfsburg: -0.505-03 v Borussia Dortmund: +2.905-09 v FC Augsburg: -3.705-16 v 1899 Hoffenheim: +4.8
league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

FC Augsburg (1st) v Bayer Leverkusen (7th)

1 28%
X 26%
2 45%
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 67%↑3.1
Squad overlay · Bayer Leverkusen stronger by 0.06, shifted the price by up to 0.5 pts
xG overlay · Bayer Leverkusen better on chances than on results by 0.21 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.2 pts
Match preview

The model makes Bayer Leverkusen narrow favourites at 45%, with FC Augsburg at 28% and the draw at 26%. FC Augsburg have won 4 of their last five (13 scored, 7 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 65%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 67%. Watch Fabian Rieder 馃嚚馃嚟 and Finn Dahmen 馃嚛馃嚜 for FC Augsburg, and Alejandro Grimaldo and Malik Tillman 馃嚭馃嚫 for Bayer Leverkusen.

FC Augsburg: Bottom-half survivor again (0-6 home loss to Leipzig the low). · Bayer Leverkusen: Post-Alonso normalisation: 6th in 25/26, Europa League.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FC Augsburg (1st)

Bottom-half survivor again (0-6 home loss to Leipzig the low). WWK Arena. Fifteen straight top-flight years on discipline and home scraps. Same expectation: 12th-16th, relegation playoff periphery.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 57.1 in league · 5th of 13
Seasons 2023: 11th | 2024: 12th | 2025: 9th | 2026 so far: 1st (6 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA4-1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • WH3-0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • LA0-4 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • WH3-1 Borussia M枚nchengladbachBundesliga
  • WA3-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,4,4,3,5
Key players Finn Dahmen 馃嚛馃嚜 81.2, Anton Kade 馃嚛馃嚜 76.7, Fabian Rieder 馃嚚馃嚟 74.6, Alexis Claude-Maurice 馃嚝馃嚪 72.9, Chrislain Matsima 馃嚝馃嚪 72.5
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 13 路 馃嚝馃嚪 5 路 馃嚟馃嚪 3 路 馃嚚馃嚟 2 路 馃嚘馃嚬 2 路 馃嚬馃嚪 1 路 +11 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
3169th03-07 v RB Leipzig: -1.503-14 v Borussia Dortmund: -3.903-22 v VfB Stuttgart: -5.004-04 v Hamburger SV: +0.304-10 v 1899 Hoffenheim: +0.504-18 v Bayer Leverkusen: +0.804-25 v Eintracht Frankfurt: +0.405-02 v Werder Bremen: +3.605-09 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: +3.705-16 v Union Berlin: -6.0

Bayer Leverkusen (7th)

FOREIGN CORE 73%

Post-Alonso normalisation: 6th in 25/26, Europa League. BayArena. Squad sales (Wirtz-era exodus) reset the ceiling. Still top-6 talent; the 23/24 invincibles feel long gone. Rebound candidate under settled coaching.

Style Fast and clean from 2025
Squad quality 62.2 in league · 2nd of 13
Seasons 2023: 1st | 2024: 2nd | 2025: 6th | 2026 so far: 7th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • LA2-3 SV ElversbergBundesliga
  • DH1-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • LA1-3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • WH4-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNYY match totals 5,4,2,5,4
Key players Aleix Garc铆a 馃嚜馃嚫 82.8, Patrik Schick 馃嚚馃嚳 78.6, Lo茂c Bad茅 馃嚝馃嚪 76.7, Ibrahim Maza 馃嚛馃嚜 75.3, Miguel Guti茅rrez 馃嚜馃嚫 72.7
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 9 路 馃嚘馃嚪 4 路 馃嚝馃嚪 4 路 馃嚜馃嚫 3 路 馃嚦馃嚤 2 路 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
3146th03-07 v SC Freiburg: -0.303-14 v Bayern M眉nchen: +1.003-21 v 1. FC Heidenheim: +0.104-04 v VfL Wolfsburg: +5.204-11 v Borussia Dortmund: +1.704-18 v FC Augsburg: -0.804-25 v 1. FC K枚ln: +1.105-02 v RB Leipzig: +5.605-09 v VfB Stuttgart: -4.205-16 v Hamburger SV: +0.7
league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

FSV Mainz 05 (5th) v Eintracht Frankfurt (13th)

↓ Eintracht Frankfurt TRANSFERS: WEAKENED -36
1 48%
X 25%
2 27%
Prediction: FSV Mainz 05 to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 65%
xG overlay · Eintracht Frankfurt better on chances than on results by 0.30 goals, shifted the price by up to 1.7 pts
Match preview

The model makes FSV Mainz 05 narrow favourites at 48%, with Eintracht Frankfurt at 27% and the draw at 25%. FSV Mainz 05 have won 3 of their last five (10 scored, 4 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 65%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 65%. Watch Nadiem Amiri 馃嚛馃嚜 and Paul Nebel 馃嚛馃嚜 for FSV Mainz 05, and Can Uzun 馃嚬馃嚪 and Jonathan Burkardt 馃嚛馃嚜 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

FSV Mainz 05: Carnival club, perennial escape artists; 25/26 lower mid-table after their 24/25 European cameo. · Eintracht Frankfurt: Upper-mid 25/26 highlighted by hammering Galatasaray 5-1 in the UCL and that 6-4 win at Gladbach.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

FSV Mainz 05 (5th)

Carnival club, perennial escape artists; 25/26 lower mid-table after their 24/25 European cameo. Mewa Arena. Elite at coaching turnarounds. 10th-15th expectation; strong vs the big sides at home historically.

Seasons 2023: 14th | 2024: 6th | 2025: 10th | 2026 so far: 5th (4 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WA5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • DH0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • WA2-0 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
  • LH1-3 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • WA2-1 FC St. PauliBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYNNY match totals 3,4,2,0,5
Key players Nadiem Amiri 馃嚛馃嚜 80.6, Sheraldo Becker 馃嚫馃嚪 76.0, Fabio Gruber 馃嚛馃嚜 74.4, Stefan Posch 馃嚘馃嚬 72.2, Kaishu Sano 馃嚡馃嚨 71.3
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 16 路 馃嚘馃嚬 4 路 馃嚢馃嚪 2 路 馃嚝馃嚪 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 2 路 馃嚘馃嚭 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
91810th03-07 v VfB Stuttgart: +0.903-15 v Werder Bremen: +3.003-22 v Eintracht Frankfurt: +2.104-04 v 1899 Hoffenheim: +2.504-12 v SC Freiburg: -2.004-19 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: +0.804-25 v Bayern M眉nchen: -1.805-03 v FC St. Pauli: +2.905-10 v Union Berlin: -3.605-16 v 1. FC Heidenheim: +3.6

Eintracht Frankfurt (13th)

Upper-mid 25/26 highlighted by hammering Galatasaray 5-1 in the UCL and that 6-4 win at Gladbach. Waldstadion raucous. Sells a striker every year, reloads via scouting. Europe-race regular; volatility is the brand.

Style Cynical disruptor from 2025
Squad quality 45.4 in league · 8th of 13
Seasons 2023: 6th | 2024: 3rd | 2025: 8th | 2026 so far: 13th (1 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LH1-4 FC AugsburgBundesliga
  • DA3-3 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • DH2-2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • LA2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • LH1-2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 3,5,4,6,5
Key players Younes Ebnoutalib 馃嚛馃嚜 75.2, Can Uzun 馃嚬馃嚪 72.9, Noah Atubolu 馃嚛馃嚜 70.5, Robin Koch 馃嚛馃嚜 70.3, Jean-Matt茅o Bahoya 馃嚝馃嚪 69.1
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 16 路 馃嚝馃嚪 5 路 馃嚛馃嚢 2 路 馃嚡馃嚨 2 路 馃嚙馃嚜 2 路 馃嚫馃嚜 2 路 +9 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
298th03-08 v FC St. Pauli: -0.103-14 v 1. FC Heidenheim: +2.403-22 v FSV Mainz 05: -2.104-05 v 1. FC K枚ln: -0.304-11 v VfL Wolfsburg: +1.504-18 v RB Leipzig: -3.304-25 v FC Augsburg: -0.405-02 v Hamburger SV: -2.005-08 v Borussia Dortmund: -2.405-16 v VfB Stuttgart: +0.6
league draws 24% · chaos 48lively

1. FC K枚ln (11th) v Werder Bremen (10th)

⚖ DRAW RISK: HIGH↑ 1. FC K枚ln TRANSFERS: POWERED UP +19
1 45%
X 26%
2 30%
Prediction: 1. FC K枚ln to win (lean) · BTTS: Yes (strong) · Over 2.5: 60%
xG overlay · 1. FC K枚ln better on chances than on results by 0.45 goals, shifted the price by up to 2.6 pts
Match preview

The model makes 1. FC K枚ln narrow favourites at 45%, with Werder Bremen at 30% and the draw at 26%. Werder Bremen have lost 4 of their last five (5 scored, 11 conceded). Both teams to score looks likely at 61%. It leans over 2.5 goals at 60%. This tie also lands in the model's draw-risk band. Watch Said El Mala 馃嚛馃嚜 and Jakub Kaminski for 1. FC K枚ln, and Romano Schmid 馃嚘馃嚬 and Jens Stage 馃嚛馃嚢 for Werder Bremen.

Werder Bremen: Weserstadion tradition; 25/26 mid-table, no drama either way.

Assembled automatically from the model's own numbers and the club records — no editorial input.

Club briefings

1. FC K枚ln (11th)

Cologne. Promoted 24/25, stabilised in 25/26 lower mid-table. RheinEnergieStadion 50k, carnival atmosphere. Sell-and-rebuild economics; survival-plus expectation with strong home backing.

Style Punished on few chances from 2025
Squad quality 34.1 in league · 12th of 13
Seasons 2023: 17th | 2025: 14th | 2026 so far: 11th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • LA1-4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • WH3-2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • LA1-5 Bayern M眉nchenBundesliga
  • LH1-3 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
  • DA2-2 Union BerlinBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YYYYY match totals 4,4,6,5,5
Key players Said El Mala 馃嚛馃嚜 72.0, Ragnar Ache 馃嚛馃嚜 67.6, Marius B眉lter 馃嚛馃嚜 66.6, Luka Lochoshvili 馃嚞馃嚜 66.2, Tom Krau脽 馃嚛馃嚜 65.7
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 17 路 馃嚙馃嚘 2 路 馃嚱馃嚢 1 路 馃嚥馃嚜 1 路 馃嚘馃嚬 1 路 馃嚠馃嚫 1 路 +7 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
31514th03-07 v Borussia Dortmund: -2.403-14 v Hamburger SV: +0.403-21 v Borussia M枚nchengladbach: +0.204-05 v Eintracht Frankfurt: +0.304-12 v Werder Bremen: +4.204-17 v FC St. Pauli: -0.304-25 v Bayer Leverkusen: -1.105-02 v Union Berlin: +0.305-10 v 1. FC Heidenheim: -3.105-16 v Bayern M眉nchen: -6.0

Werder Bremen (10th)

Weserstadion tradition; 25/26 mid-table, no drama either way. Modest budget, decent home form, weak vs the top-6. 9th-13th projection; cup runs the realistic upside.

Seasons 2023: 9th | 2024: 8th | 2025: 15th | 2026 so far: 10th (3 pts)
Last 5 (all comps)
  • WH3-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • LA1-4 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • LH0-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • LA0-1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • LH1-3 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Over 2.5 last 5 YNNYY match totals 4,1,2,5,4
Key players Amos Pieper 馃嚛馃嚜 71.4, Marco Gr眉ll 馃嚘馃嚬 70.6, Jens Stage 馃嚛馃嚢 70.1, Olivier Deman 馃嚙馃嚜 66.8, Eren Dink莽i 馃嚛馃嚜 65.8
Nationalities 馃嚛馃嚜 13 路 馃嚘馃嚬 4 路 馃嚙馃嚜 3 路 馃嚨馃嚤 1 路 馃嚙馃嚞 1 路 馃嚦馃嚧 1 路 +10 more
Season pulse last season (2025) · new season pending
71815th03-08 v Union Berlin: +4.503-15 v FSV Mainz 05: -3.003-21 v VfL Wolfsburg: +1.704-04 v RB Leipzig: -2.004-12 v 1. FC K枚ln: -4.204-18 v Hamburger SV: +3.604-26 v VfB Stuttgart: -0.505-02 v FC Augsburg: -3.605-09 v 1899 Hoffenheim: -2.205-16 v Borussia Dortmund: -4.1

Club map · live temperature · terrain & altitude

Every club in the league. Markers coloured by current temperature at the club's city; ringed = in today's fixtures. Switch to the terrain layer for altitude contour lines; elevation is in each popup.